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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: "Wii U won't save Nintendo, phones took 35% of the market"

NightDragon83 said:
I still don't get why Pach was so adamant about Nintendo releasing a "Wii HD".. why? What would the purpose have been? To play games that are already visually barebones like the Wii (insert theme here) games, and to split the userbase between HD and non-HD games? Like say Wii HD came out by 2010 as he predicted.. .so games like Galaxy 2 and DKC Returns would have ONLY been for the Wii HD and not for the millions of people who owned just a plain vanilla Wii? That's ridiculous!

He predicted it even before that.

http://www.joystiq.com/2007/08/01/pachter-predicts-hd-wii/

Here he is in mid 2007(!), predicting a Wii HD in 2009 or 2010.

While searching for that I also found another article where the asshole called WiiU a Wii HD, said that he was right, and that Ninendo should have released it sooner.



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TLDR

But based on the thread title, my response would be that phones and home consoles aren't the same market. Does pachter really think phones and home consoles are competing for sales? Because they really aren't. I don't even think that phones and handhelds compete, there may be some overlap but they aren't really direct competition.



binary solo said:
Pavolink said:
gameheart said:
No need to respond to the lunatic. Whatever negatives pachter says about nintendo has always meant
good fortunes for them which make me believe the future is definately bright for nintendo

Well, to be fair, he is right about Nintendo's stock and their losses.

He called recently the Wii as a "fad", and becuase of that and Kinect its sales were declining fast. The same with smartphones and tablets against dedicated portable gaming. The point I believe he's forgetting, is that Kinect and smartphones/tablets can be fads as the Wii and many other thousand of things before in this world.

Kinect maybe, but smartphones I don't think so, people are morte and more gonna see mobile phones as a need rather than a luxury, and more and more they are going to see smartphones as also a need, or at least a justifiable upgrade on what is already a needful item. Xbox and Kinect will bever be viewed by the "casual" audience as a need; only gamer geeks think their console is a need.

I disagree with is comment that dedicated HH gamers will / have migrated to smartphones / tablets. Maybe he's using dedicated in a different context to what I'm thinking but I think the casual gamer (i.e. those who are happy with angry birds and cut the rope asa the extent of sophistication in gaming they are happy with) is for sure mostly lost to 3DS and Vita. No way the casual HH gamer makes up 1/2 of DS's market. But you can bet all the ladies Olivia Newton-John was advertising to with the DS have moved on and won;t be buying a 3DS. So I think perhaps 1/4 to 1/3 of the DS market is lost to the 3DS.

I think Nintendo are really missing a market here. They should take a leaf deom Apple's book. Apple was NOT a phone company, but they had a decent fanbase through first the computers then the iPods. Nintendo should make their own phone. Pair up with RIM so that they don't occupy the same OS as Sony (Android) and put out a DSphone.

I know all y'all DS fans would buy, don't try to tell me otherwise.

I don't think many people have gone from Wii to smartphone or tablet. Totally different reasons behind getting a Wii and a compelling Wii U experience will bring them back to the console in front of the TV. I think Wii U has lost some market share to Kinect and Nextbox+Kinect though. It seems pretty clear that about 250 million is the upper limit for number of consoles likely to be sold this generation. This gen could be the peak gen for consoles and the limit next gen might be 200 million. That's still plenty of console sales for each of the players to maintain a credible install base. I think it will be closer to evenly shared next gen with about 70 million each. But if MS and Sony get their "media hub" concept and marketing right then the console market potential could grow next gen. However if Nintendo keep their reputation as only a box for playing games then they may not be well positioned for those who are looking for more than just a console to attach to their TV.


Pairing up with RIM would be a ridiculously bad idea. Not only are the demographics all wrong (pretty much the only people with Blackberry phones are business people now) but RIM is a company that is heading down a very steep slope towards oblivion.



UncleScrooge said:

Because Pachter wanted a Wii HD in 2008? The Wii U is one year late and that's because Nintendo needed to focus on the 3DS (which also launched one year too late) but Pachter was claiming that "the Wii bubble will burst" in 2007 and one year later he insisted the launch of a Wii HD. Even back then people where joking about this saying "yeah when Wii sales go down after 5 years on the market Pachter will claim he was right."

OT: This whole talk about smartphones and "the casuals!" turning their back on Nintendo is based on an entirely wrong view of the market, anyways. Starting with Wii Music Nintendo time and time again failed to develop mass market games for the Wii because they lost track of their original vision which was "growing the market by appealing to new customers". Also after 2009 there simply were no development resources left for the Wii. Obviously the console couldn't sell forever on titles released in 2009 or earlier. Customers noticed the lack of new games and turned their back on the console. But the core of the problem is that Nintendo turned their back on their customers - not the other way around. Instead Nintendo got arrogant and focused on their "core games" again, priced the 3DS ridiculously high and flat out rejected to actively go after their new customers. Instead they thought the mass market would simply buy their products at high prices because "Nintendo is just like Apple!" not noticing how much care Apple puts into their products and how much they focus on the customer. Right now Nintendo is crawling back to their expanded market developing 2D Mario and Brain Training. But the fact remains: Nintendo abandoned their expanded market not the other way around. And you simply can not grow by ignoring customers. It's like Tim Cook entering stage saying "We won't produce new iPhones and iPads anymore. We'll just sell the old ones forever because we don't need to care about our customers. We'll just concentrate on Macs!" And one year later Pachter and his "analyst" friends go crazy: "OMG! Gaming handhelds are eating into the iPhones market! This was totally unexpected! It must be fate! Apple is doomed!"

Great post, especially the bolded part is spot on.

The silliness on the internet has no boundaries, it even took me days to convince Nintendo fans that the release of Wii Play Motion didn't mean that Nintendo was catering to their customers (as in the pesky casual rats).



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

what Nintendo is doing now is to capture the core gamers first and then go after the casuals just to lose the "Nintendo is for casuals" image. they will do the same with WiiU even though it will most likely come with a game like Wii Sports

OT: Pachter is an idiot



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(


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Roma said:

what Nintendo is doing now is to capture the core gamers first and then go after the casuals just to lose the "Nintendo is for casuals" image. they will do the same with WiiU even though it will most likely come with a game like Wii Sports

So after the 3DS has been out for a year now, do you feel that Nintendo got rid of their casual image?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Phones aren't real gaming devices. They shouldn't be counted in game/system sales.



           

RolStoppable said:
Roma said:

what Nintendo is doing now is to capture the core gamers first and then go after the casuals just to lose the "Nintendo is for casuals" image. they will do the same with WiiU even though it will most likely come with a game like Wii Sports

So after the 3DS has been out for a year now, do you feel that Nintendo got rid of their casual image?

The thing is they will never lose any of their images. On top of kiddy there is the new casual and next gen who knows what image they will get :P

But let’s say they lose it, they would still not lose it until they release the WiiU and have lots of hardcore games for it from the start and keep on giving people hardcore games for at least a year before they release more of the casual ever green titles


    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(


nintendo hasn't been in the market for hardcore gamers since the N64, which is probably what patcher is talking about.
Nintendo won't die off, it will just stay casual.
the hand held market.. well, not sure yet, a huge chunk of it is now in smart phone territory, but there are lots of kids that want a hand held, some adults will want them for those boring times at work or bus rides as well.

that said, patcher is always wrong chances are the wii u sales will be huge. there was a graph lying around somewhere about the ages of people who preferred the wii.. and it was basically a hit with 7-12 year olds, and people over 30.
flopped with teens and 20's, which is the hardcore gaming market.
If i end up getting a wii-u it will be later in the gen, and only if they have some really good classics that are remade and have online play.. give me mario party 1 with online D:



And yet the 65% that remains is bigger than 100% of the mobile gaming market last gen - the 3DS is tracking well ahead of the DS. This is because mobile phones are expanding the audience, not stealing customers from Nintendo or Sony.