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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: "Wii U won't save Nintendo, phones took 35% of the market"

happydolphin said:
oniyide said:

dont get it twisted, i like old style games just as much as the next, guy. I log in HOURS on Scot Pilgrim and that is straight SD and I stll pull out the Sonic2 every now and then, but why not have my cake and eat it too?? Thats what PS360 provide, they can give you both. Where the Wii can only seem to do one.

Hey man, Im just telling you what two of my friends said. There just not feeling the 3DS and that one game is not convincing them, whatcha gonna do?? Also keep in mind there is a new numbered entry coming this year and the online one in a few weeks, so they just might feel that they dont need to play this one, Im not a big fan myself, the only one I enjoyed was 4. I rather watch other people play it.

Oh yeah, I see what you mean. I'm not 100% an RE fan so I guess that could be a way to go about it. No diss intended.

About the dual (HD/SD) idea, you are totally right. BUT! Since Wii was market leader, SD top-tier was its offerings. If 3rd parties wanted to offer top tier HD, yeah PS360 were there, true. But for SD it was Wii's turf because they were market leader for a really long time. Also problem was SD to HD ratio was really low for top-tier games, I think that's been Rol's beef all along. Keep in mind alot of my reasoning stems from my understanding and from what others here have taught me (you included), i.e. stuff that makes sense.


My point was that Pachter's opinion was not universally shared.  This was a quick, sample of places with free ratings freely available.  You get what you pay for .... which is the same with all the free comments that Pachter has been giving out.

 

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV

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happydolphin said:
oniyide said:

Its all good, some people just dont have the time, energy or funds to buy systems just for one game, not in this economy anyway. No matter how much they may like it, and my friends are the ones that defend the franchise and even watch the damn movies. IMHO, i just think Capcom is going crazy with RE and they are going to oversaturate the series, I think we might be seeing that with RE R, but i wont know for sure until the other two come out.

Yeah your right it was market leader, I think what happened was they saw how well the WiiSports/Fit were doing compared to everything else and decided to go that route for Wii, now lets take UBi, they make a killing on AC and JD, JD costs them nothing to make for Wii, AC is pretty damn expensive, but they both make them money. Yes a AC game for Wii would be cheaper than an AC game for HD, but it would still be more expensive than JD and wouldnt even sell anywher near as much as JD on Wii or AC on PS360. Yeah they made one for PSP and DS, but those didnt exactly fly off the shelves themselves, hell I think IMHO it would have done worst. Thats just an example. And really that scenario has always been like that. Its the same thing on HDs, just replace dance with FPSs, last gen it was sandbox, before that...JRPGS and 3d plats, before that 2d plats. Yes if you are a Wii only owner, it sucks to be you sometimes, but fortunately this will never happen again.

RE:R was what many call a much needed return to the franchise's roots. But I think we're going off for RE, we founds lots of common ground on it, and I understand your buddies not being able to afford two plats. In my story, I didn't end up buying the 360 with SFIV, but I was very, very tempted to, if I remember correctly I was picking up the box to get ready to buy it, but decided not to. It was a bad move the 360 would've provided lots of fun, but what the heck.

@Bold, I'm glad you mentioned that, and it's so true. But the 2nd part of the sentence, it not selling as much as AC on PS360 is debatable. Not as much as JD is highly likely, but not as much as AC on PS360.

Assassin's Creed (9.38M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 Assassin's Creed X360 2007 Adventure Ubisoft 2.99 1.49 0.07 0.51 5.06
4 Assassin's Creed PS3 2007 Adventure Ubisoft 1.72 1.77 0.09 0.74 4.32
Total                   9.38

 

Assassin's Creed II (9.62M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
2 Assassin's Creed II PS3 2009 Action Ubisoft 2.09 1.81 0.21 0.79 4.89
3 Assassin's Creed II X360 2009 Action Ubisoft 2.66 1.51 0.08 0.48 4.73
Total                   9.62

 

Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (8.02M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
5 Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood X360 2010 Action Ubisoft 2.31 1.34 0.03 0.41 4.09
6 Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood PS3 2010 Action Ubisoft 1.46 1.68 0.11 0.68 3.93
Total                   8.02

 

Assassin's Creed: Revelations (6.36M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
7 Assassin's Creed: Revelations X360 2011 Action Ubisoft 1.73 1.15 0.02 0.33 3.24
8 Assassin's Creed: Revelations PS3 2011 Action Ubisoft 1.06 1.44 0.06 0.57 3.12
Total                   6.36

 

Just Dance (Main entries. Low: 6.61M, High: 8.97M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 Just Dance 2 Wii 2010 Misc Ubisoft 5.44 2.66 0.01 0.87 8.97
2 Just Dance 3 Wii 2011 Misc Ubisoft 3.94 2.66 0.00 0.76 7.36
3 Just Dance Wii 2009 Misc Ubisoft 3.07 2.82 0.00 0.71 6.61

 

I'd agree that a Wii flavor of AC could at most reach the sales volume of one of the HD twins, so 4-5M. True, Just Dance was the right business choice for Ubisoft, especially for a dev-intensive game as AC. Great Point.

I never thought of it that way. Question though, what was the performance of AC (1) prior to the expansion of the HD market (due to games like AC)? This would help answer the final question. Are AC sales high due to 3rd parties favoring the HD twins, or are they high on the HD twins, hence the sound business decision. I've brought up lots of numbers, it's your turn Oni . I'm curious to know the answer!


I would be carefull with AC numbers because I have noticed every year that it is one of the most heavilly discounted title every January.

Ubisoft moves a lot of units, but the question is at what price .

One month after the release some retailers had sales  offering the game at 50% of the release price. And I noticed the same thing last year with Brotherhood..

By comparisons, games like Skyrim or Batman Arkham City, were not discounted as much ( CoD MW3 wasn't either but that is expected, there is so much demand the title sells close to full price for a very long time)



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Its hard to repeat the rabid success of the Wii. Doubtful it will happen again. Remember, Wii was IMPOSSIBLE to get for the first 18 months of its life, they were NOWHERE to be found in the US. I was actually able to turn a nice profit on several that I lucked into getting.

Will Wii U become the MUST HAVE gadget this holiday season? Hard to tell, Wii didnt really take off until very close to launch when it became apparent that it and PS3 would be impossible to find after launch day until after Christmas. Still, Nintendo is far from dead, or even in serious trouble. 3DS is selling well, and the expenditures that go into launching a console are once off, after launch they should start recooping costs fairly quickly. Give the Wii U a year and a Mario game and it will sell great.



Plezbo said:
Its hard to repeat the rabid success of the Wii. Doubtful it will happen again. Remember, Wii was IMPOSSIBLE to get for the first 18 months of its life, they were NOWHERE to be found in the US. I was actually able to turn a nice profit on several that I lucked into getting.

They weren't impossible to find, just incredibly difficult.  I was lucky enough to get mine on launch day but my friends weren't so lucky.  Stores would receive very small shipments of units trickling in here and there, and people would be lined up outside before the store was even open that day.  One friend actually got his the week before Christmas of '06 by waiting outside of Best Buy the night before they opened the next day.  Unless you just happened to show up right when a shipment arrived, this was par for the course for that 18 months.

With the Playstation 2 here in the US, however, it was literally impossible to get one for months, as Sony unloaded their entire stock in the first 24 hours, with no more units available at all to ship/sell until they made more.

With WiiU, Nintendo may not have that absurd 18 months that the Wii enjoyed, but we will undoubtedly see a similar situation this holiday.  The insane demand is certainly possible throughout next year, but is dependent on two main things:  The right price ($299-$349 would do it), and, most importantly, Nintendo having the right games to make the craze happen.



happydolphin said:
oniyide said:

Its all good, some people just dont have the time, energy or funds to buy systems just for one game, not in this economy anyway. No matter how much they may like it, and my friends are the ones that defend the franchise and even watch the damn movies. IMHO, i just think Capcom is going crazy with RE and they are going to oversaturate the series, I think we might be seeing that with RE R, but i wont know for sure until the other two come out.

Yeah your right it was market leader, I think what happened was they saw how well the WiiSports/Fit were doing compared to everything else and decided to go that route for Wii, now lets take UBi, they make a killing on AC and JD, JD costs them nothing to make for Wii, AC is pretty damn expensive, but they both make them money. Yes a AC game for Wii would be cheaper than an AC game for HD, but it would still be more expensive than JD and wouldnt even sell anywher near as much as JD on Wii or AC on PS360. Yeah they made one for PSP and DS, but those didnt exactly fly off the shelves themselves, hell I think IMHO it would have done worst. Thats just an example. And really that scenario has always been like that. Its the same thing on HDs, just replace dance with FPSs, last gen it was sandbox, before that...JRPGS and 3d plats, before that 2d plats. Yes if you are a Wii only owner, it sucks to be you sometimes, but fortunately this will never happen again.

RE:R was what many call a much needed return to the franchise's roots. But I think we're going off for RE, we founds lots of common ground on it, and I understand your buddies not being able to afford two plats. In my story, I didn't end up buying the 360 with SFIV, but I was very, very tempted to, if I remember correctly I was picking up the box to get ready to buy it, but decided not to. It was a bad move the 360 would've provided lots of fun, but what the heck.

@Bold, I'm glad you mentioned that, and it's so true. But the 2nd part of the sentence, it not selling as much as AC on PS360 is debatable. Not as much as JD is highly likely, but not as much as AC on PS360.

Assassin's Creed (9.38M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 Assassin's Creed X360 2007 Adventure Ubisoft 2.99 1.49 0.07 0.51 5.06
4 Assassin's Creed PS3 2007 Adventure Ubisoft 1.72 1.77 0.09 0.74 4.32
Total                   9.38

 

Assassin's Creed II (9.62M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
2 Assassin's Creed II PS3 2009 Action Ubisoft 2.09 1.81 0.21 0.79 4.89
3 Assassin's Creed II X360 2009 Action Ubisoft 2.66 1.51 0.08 0.48 4.73
Total                   9.62

 

Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (8.02M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
5 Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood X360 2010 Action Ubisoft 2.31 1.34 0.03 0.41 4.09
6 Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood PS3 2010 Action Ubisoft 1.46 1.68 0.11 0.68 3.93
Total                   8.02

 

Assassin's Creed: Revelations (6.36M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
7 Assassin's Creed: Revelations X360 2011 Action Ubisoft 1.73 1.15 0.02 0.33 3.24
8 Assassin's Creed: Revelations PS3 2011 Action Ubisoft 1.06 1.44 0.06 0.57 3.12
Total                   6.36

 

Just Dance (Main entries. Low: 6.61M, High: 8.97M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 Just Dance 2 Wii 2010 Misc Ubisoft 5.44 2.66 0.01 0.87 8.97
2 Just Dance 3 Wii 2011 Misc Ubisoft 3.94 2.66 0.00 0.76 7.36
3 Just Dance Wii 2009 Misc Ubisoft 3.07 2.82 0.00 0.71 6.61

 

I'd agree that a Wii flavor of AC could at most reach the sales volume of one of the HD twins, so 4-5M. True, Just Dance was the right business choice for Ubisoft, especially for a dev-intensive game as AC. Great Point.

I never thought of it that way. Question though, what was the performance of AC (1) prior to the expansion of the HD market (due to games like AC)? This would help answer the final question. Are AC sales high due to 3rd parties favoring the HD twins, or are they high on the HD twins, hence the sound business decision. I've brought up lots of numbers, it's your turn Oni . I'm curious to know the answer!


Well the AC 1 numbers are right there, the game sold that much prior to the HD boom, it was a new IP and it wasnt even that GOOD and it still did gangbusters.  YOu think that an AC game for WIi could reach 4-5 mil?? No, hell no. COD is a MUCH more popular franchise. and the COD games cant even crack the 2 million mark on WIi despite the bigger install base.  Keep in mind that the COD games on WIi are 90 percent identical to the HD version. An AC game wouldnt be so lucky since those are much more demanding on the PS360 hardware than any of the COD games.  Best case scenerio you'll get a AC Bloodlines scenario. A simple ok game that could push about 1.5 mil lifetime maybe and hell IMHO I dont even think it would do that much.  Hell MOH Heroes 2 sold better on PSP than on WIi by alot, a freaking portable FPS sold better than its CONSOLE version, by a lot. DOnt know how that happened



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Oniyide said:

Well the AC 1 numbers are right there, the game sold that much prior to the HD boom, it was a new IP and it wasnt even that GOOD and it still did gangbusters.  YOu think that an AC game for WIi could reach 4-5 mil?? No, hell no. COD is a MUCH more popular franchise. and the COD games cant even crack the 2 million mark on WIi despite the bigger install base.  Keep in mind that the COD games on WIi are 90 percent identical to the HD version. An AC game wouldnt be so lucky since those are much more demanding on the PS360 hardware than any of the COD games.  Best case scenerio you'll get a AC Bloodlines scenario. A simple ok game that could push about 1.5 mil lifetime maybe and hell IMHO I dont even think it would do that much.  Hell MOH Heroes 2 sold better on PSP than on WIi by alot, a freaking portable FPS sold better than its CONSOLE version, by a lot. DOnt know how that happened

Well I actually checked the numbers, and AC (1) sold roughly 75+% of its total sales within 60 weeks, so prior to HD boom. That's roughly 7.3+M total, in line with Just Dance Wii, and clearly above potential AC Wii sales.

As for AC not selling 5M on Wii and comparing it to a port of an HD game, now you're completely disregarding what we had talked about earlier, a game with SD visuals that compensates for graphical disparity with other more important features like story and art direction (so long as graphics aren't broken). With that in mind, I don't see why a top-tier exclusive couldn't reach 5M, and even grow towards 8M as consumers realize the Wii is the goto platform for all your gaming needs, at a highly reduced development cost.

As for Medal of Honor, I have no idea how to explain that one. 



To be fair AC1 sold that much because it was something new, the graphics were kick ass at the time and the marketing campaign was great.
But the game was kind of repetitive and there wasn't that much to do in the game...
So maybe what you are arguing would have worked for another game but in my view AC1 is a really bad example.

The game sold on graphics and a marketing campaign based on in game footage. And these are the two points that would have been severely different on the Wii..



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

happydolphin said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

Don't you dare making fun of teh Analyst God, lest you stir him to dreadful and righteous wrath and he unleashes teh powah of d0m3 on you!!!   

Lol, he shall get pwnd!

You infidel!!!   



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Ail said:
To be fair AC1 sold that much because it was something new, the graphics were kick ass at the time and the marketing campaign was great.
But the game was kind of repetitive and there wasn't that much to do in the game...
So maybe what you are arguing would have worked for another game but in my view AC1 is a really bad example.

The game sold on graphics and a marketing campaign based on in game footage. And these are the two points that would have been severely different on the Wii..

To be honest, it's hard to find a PS360 game made by a company which sold as much of a casual game on the Wii, even less while being a game that wasn't sold primarily on graphics. Would that disparity strengthen my point?

@Alby. You are too kind



Ail said:
To be fair AC1 sold that much because it was something new, the graphics were kick ass at the time and the marketing campaign was great.
But the game was kind of repetitive and there wasn't that much to do in the game...
So maybe what you are arguing would have worked for another game but in my view AC1 is a really bad example.

The game sold on graphics and a marketing campaign based on in game footage. And these are the two points that would have been severely different on the Wii..

Well, look at the results of this study. Using NFL '07 as a metric, this data shows that the Wii actually failed at maintaining interest of the hobbysists: