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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: "Wii U won't save Nintendo, phones took 35% of the market"

happydolphin said:
Ail said:
To be fair AC1 sold that much because it was something new, the graphics were kick ass at the time and the marketing campaign was great.
But the game was kind of repetitive and there wasn't that much to do in the game...
So maybe what you are arguing would have worked for another game but in my view AC1 is a really bad example.

The game sold on graphics and a marketing campaign based on in game footage. And these are the two points that would have been severely different on the Wii..

Well, look at the results of this study. Using NFL '07 as a metric, this data shows that the Wii actually failed at maintaining interest of the hobbysists:

 

 

 

Madden here is an incredibly bad example, because EA made each Wii version of Madden progressively worse than the ones that preceded it, starting with that "All Play" crap in 2008.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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Mr Khan said:

 Madden here is an incredibly bad example, because EA made each Wii version of Madden progressively worse than the ones that preceded it, starting with that "All Play" crap in 2008.

I know, I'm having a hard time finding numbers that help. AC wasn't adequate due to its focus on HD as a selling point (if I want to be really picky), which is not doable on Wii.

I took NFL because it was another take, but this time it was due to quality that the HD versions kept the upward trend and the Wii version didn't.

But let's scrap the Wii trend, we can still do the same analysis (I think).

For one, both 360 and PS3 versions rose from 0.60-ish up to 1-1.5M. I didn't include this in the graph:

4 Madden NFL 06 X360 2005 Sports Electronic Arts 0.54 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.58

At their gen 7 peak, the NFL games sold, PS360, a total of 4.5M total. I believe had the market leader been respected in the West, the Wii could have easily sold top-tier games at that volume.

A similar EA example, but this time in the fantasy genre:

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 Dragon Age: Origins X360 2009 Role-Playing Electronic Arts 1.55 0.46 0.03 0.20 2.24
2 Dragon Age: Origins PS3 2009 Role-Playing Electronic Arts 0.84 0.33 0.08 0.18 1.43
Total                   3.67
3 Dragon Age II X360 2011 Role-Playing Electronic Arts 0.58 0.22 0.01 0.08 0.88
4 Dragon Age II PS3 2011 Role-Playing Electronic Arts 0.28 0.17 0.03 0.08 0.56
Total                   1.44

These are numbers EA could have easily reproduced if not surpassed on Wii. Mind you, this is all in hindsight.

 

Now the Assassin's creed example is an interesting one, it makes one wonder how much of the mainstream sales garnered by that game were due to fancy visuals, à-la Hollywood. For example, a movie like Startrek (the new one) sports good visuals, and so does a movie like Avatar, but one also has much more to offer. Yet both had very good sales.

Star  Trek: $257,730,019

Avatar: $749,766,139

Consider eye-candy the path to a ticket, and depth the path to word-of-mouth and explosive sales.

 

Mind you, a few games on the Wii sported absolutely gorgeous graphics, but they are few and far between. Even when they do, there is always something to complain about. But here are a few examples of games with gorgeous Wii graphics:

I am certain that the effort invested in HD games could have been used to create these kinds of visuals, as well as true gaming depth of content.

So if a game like Madden PS360 totals up to 4.5M, I believe Western devs could have offered unique experiences on Wii of AC level of quality and generate high sales even with Wii visuals.

Top EA Sports game (gen 7):

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 FIFA Soccer 12 PS3 2011 Sports Electronic Arts 0.60 3.39 0.07 1.18 5.25
16 FIFA Soccer 12 X360 2011 Sports Electronic Arts 0.64 2.29 0.02 0.43 3.38
total                   8.63

Top EA game (gen 7):

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
6 Battlefield 3 X360 2011 Shooter Electronic Arts 3.29 1.44 0.04 0.51 5.27
9 Battlefield 3 PS3 2011 Shooter Electronic Arts 1.93 1.65 0.19 0.71 4.47
Total                   9.74

Top EA PS360 game that could have sold likely as well on Wii (Non-shooter, non HD-focused):

See Dragon Age above, 3.67M total tops

Obviously, in hindsight, some games were more reasonable to release on the HD twins. However, other could have done probably much better on the Wii, especially with the resources saved to make the game even more appealing and deep (see Star Trek to Avatar sales comparison).



happydolphin said:

Oniyide said:

Well the AC 1 numbers are right there, the game sold that much prior to the HD boom, it was a new IP and it wasnt even that GOOD and it still did gangbusters.  YOu think that an AC game for WIi could reach 4-5 mil?? No, hell no. COD is a MUCH more popular franchise. and the COD games cant even crack the 2 million mark on WIi despite the bigger install base.  Keep in mind that the COD games on WIi are 90 percent identical to the HD version. An AC game wouldnt be so lucky since those are much more demanding on the PS360 hardware than any of the COD games.  Best case scenerio you'll get a AC Bloodlines scenario. A simple ok game that could push about 1.5 mil lifetime maybe and hell IMHO I dont even think it would do that much.  Hell MOH Heroes 2 sold better on PSP than on WIi by alot, a freaking portable FPS sold better than its CONSOLE version, by a lot. DOnt know how that happened

Well I actually checked the numbers, and AC (1) sold roughly 75+% of its total sales within 60 weeks, so prior to HD boom. That's roughly 7.3+M total, in line with Just Dance Wii, and clearly above potential AC Wii sales.

As for AC not selling 5M on Wii and comparing it to a port of an HD game, now you're completely disregarding what we had talked about earlier, a game with SD visuals that compensates for graphical disparity with other more important features like story and art direction (so long as graphics aren't broken). With that in mind, I don't see why a top-tier exclusive couldn't reach 5M, and even grow towards 8M as consumers realize the Wii is the goto platform for all your gaming needs, at a highly reduced development cost.

As for Medal of Honor, I have no idea how to explain that one. 

That wont work for AC, have you played those games?? They are open, you CANNOT compensate for lack of graphics in that kind of game, you will lose the illusion of the open world, and the game will fall apart.  Story and art direction??? The AC story is already good, graphics have nothing to do with that, art direction. Are you suggesting they do cel shaded or something to compensate, that wont fly on a game like AC, hell it didnt fly for the Maddens.  You have more hardware you can do more things, Its that simple. THe Wii was never going to be the goto platform for all your gaming needs, not with that weak hardware.  You use the word compensate and the is interesting. You kind of answered your own question, the face that it HAS to compensate ensures that it would never do as well as the HD ones, why would someone settle for what will surely be an inferior product, wheh their are TWO viable systems that will run the game the way it was intended?? 3 if you count PC



BTW I didnt even bring up the online portion, that cant be dont on WII, it would be like Dead Rising but much worst



oniyide said:
happydolphin said:

As for AC not selling 5M on Wii and comparing it to a port of an HD game, now you're completely disregarding what we had talked about earlier, a game with SD visuals that compensates for graphical disparity with other more important features like story and art direction (so long as graphics aren't broken). With that in mind, I don't see why a top-tier exclusive couldn't reach 5M, and even grow towards 8M as consumers realize the Wii is the goto platform for all your gaming needs, at a highly reduced development cost.

As for Medal of Honor, I have no idea how to explain that one. 

That wont work for AC, have you played those games?? They are open, you CANNOT compensate for lack of graphics in that kind of game, you will lose the illusion of the open world, and the game will fall apart.  Story and art direction??? The AC story is already good, graphics have nothing to do with that, art direction. Are you suggesting they do cel shaded or something to compensate, that wont fly on a game like AC, hell it didnt fly for the Maddens.  You have more hardware you can do more things, Its that simple. THe Wii was never going to be the goto platform for all your gaming needs, not with that weak hardware.  You use the word compensate and the is interesting. You kind of answered your own question, the face that it HAS to compensate ensures that it would never do as well as the HD ones, why would someone settle for what will surely be an inferior product, wheh their are TWO viable systems that will run the game the way it was intended?? 3 if you count PC

The PS1 vs N64 answers your question.

Also, at bold I was mentioning a non-AC game, one that had appealing SD visuals as well as strenght in other more important features (is what I meant). The COD HD vs Wii would not be in the same category as said hypothetical.



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happydolphin said:
oniyide said:
happydolphin said:

As for AC not selling 5M on Wii and comparing it to a port of an HD game, now you're completely disregarding what we had talked about earlier, a game with SD visuals that compensates for graphical disparity with other more important features like story and art direction (so long as graphics aren't broken). With that in mind, I don't see why a top-tier exclusive couldn't reach 5M, and even grow towards 8M as consumers realize the Wii is the goto platform for all your gaming needs, at a highly reduced development cost.

As for Medal of Honor, I have no idea how to explain that one. 

That wont work for AC, have you played those games?? They are open, you CANNOT compensate for lack of graphics in that kind of game, you will lose the illusion of the open world, and the game will fall apart.  Story and art direction??? The AC story is already good, graphics have nothing to do with that, art direction. Are you suggesting they do cel shaded or something to compensate, that wont fly on a game like AC, hell it didnt fly for the Maddens.  You have more hardware you can do more things, Its that simple. THe Wii was never going to be the goto platform for all your gaming needs, not with that weak hardware.  You use the word compensate and the is interesting. You kind of answered your own question, the face that it HAS to compensate ensures that it would never do as well as the HD ones, why would someone settle for what will surely be an inferior product, wheh their are TWO viable systems that will run the game the way it was intended?? 3 if you count PC

The PS1 vs N64 answers your question.

Also, at bold I was mentioning a non-AC game, one that had appealing SD visuals as well as strenght in other more important features (is what I meant). The COD HD vs Wii would not be in the same category as said hypothetical.


The PS1 was only half as powerful as the N64. And the fact that Ninty decided to use cartridges again, made it even harder for devs to want to mess with it, so they took a hardware step forward but like 2 steps back.  And the PS360 are about 5x+ more powerful than Wii is?? Its all semantics but when you have a system that hardware is so weak it cant even run certain games, well you get what you pay for.



oniyide said:

The PS1 was only half as powerful as the N64. And the fact that Ninty decided to use cartridges again, made it even harder for devs to want to mess with it, so they took a hardware step forward but like 2 steps back.  And the PS360 are about 5x+ more powerful than Wii is?? Its all semantics but when you have a system that hardware is so weak it cant even run certain games, well you get what you pay for.

Fair, the N64 couldn't run certain games because of limited memory and whatnot. But you were talking about graphics here:

Are you suggesting they do cel shaded or something to compensate, that wont fly on a game like AC, hell it didnt fly for the Maddens. 

Considering PS/N64 multi-plat games (ie games that could run on the N64), when gamers prefered the PS version, I'm not sure your argument completely holds water.



happydolphin said:
oniyide said:

The PS1 was only half as powerful as the N64. And the fact that Ninty decided to use cartridges again, made it even harder for devs to want to mess with it, so they took a hardware step forward but like 2 steps back.  And the PS360 are about 5x+ more powerful than Wii is?? Its all semantics but when you have a system that hardware is so weak it cant even run certain games, well you get what you pay for.

Fair, the N64 couldn't run certain games because of limited memory and whatnot. But you were talking about graphics here:

Are you suggesting they do cel shaded or something to compensate, that wont fly on a game like AC, hell it didnt fly for the Maddens. 

Considering PS/N64 multi-plat games (ie games that could run on the N64), when gamers prefered the PS version, I'm not sure your argument completely holds water.

THe PS and N64 versions of games are usually not that different. Hell if you really think about it, they both complement each other. For example Rayman 2, ran better on n64 looked better, but did it look and run that much better?? Did it look that much better that PS1 owners were going to shell out more money for a system to play a game that they could already play just for the sake of graphics, history says no and lets not forget the cartridges didnt allow for things like voices and better sounds, so really the issue of a PS vs. N64 version is quite subjective.  Its not that they preffered it, but the differences were so minuscule that its not worth it to get it on another system

the poor Wii, is so underpowered that publishers had to hire out lower devs just to run a different version of the game on the system, while the HDs got the "actual" game (Force unleashed, wolverine, etc.) or they make a spinoff which people hate(RE) or they just say f**k it and dont even bother. Lets be real, how much multiplat games can you say that the Wii version was damn close outside of the dance and fit games that use the Wii as lead hardware anyway??? All i can think of is Sonic allstars racing, the recent CODs(and thats a stretch) and... I cant think of nothing else



oniyide said:
happydolphin said:
oniyide said:

The PS1 was only half as powerful as the N64. And the fact that Ninty decided to use cartridges again, made it even harder for devs to want to mess with it, so they took a hardware step forward but like 2 steps back.  And the PS360 are about 5x+ more powerful than Wii is?? Its all semantics but when you have a system that hardware is so weak it cant even run certain games, well you get what you pay for.

Fair, the N64 couldn't run certain games because of limited memory and whatnot. But you were talking about graphics here:

Are you suggesting they do cel shaded or something to compensate, that wont fly on a game like AC, hell it didnt fly for the Maddens. 

Considering PS/N64 multi-plat games (ie games that could run on the N64), when gamers prefered the PS version, I'm not sure your argument completely holds water.

THe PS and N64 versions of games are usually not that different. Hell if you really think about it, they both complement each other. For example Rayman 2, ran better on n64 looked better, but did it look and run that much better?? Did it look that much better that PS1 owners were going to shell out more money for a system to play a game that they could already play just for the sake of graphics, history says no and lets not forget the cartridges didnt allow for things like voices and better sounds, so really the issue of a PS vs. N64 version is quite subjective.  Its not that they preffered it, but the differences were so minuscule that its not worth it to get it on another system

the poor Wii, is so underpowered that publishers had to hire out lower devs just to run a different version of the game on the system, while the HDs got the "actual" game (Force unleashed, wolverine, etc.) or they make a spinoff which people hate(RE) or they just say f**k it and dont even bother. Lets be real, how much multiplat games can you say that the Wii version was damn close outside of the dance and fit games that use the Wii as lead hardware anyway??? All i can think of is Sonic allstars racing, the recent CODs(and thats a stretch) and... I cant think of nothing else

Fair, the PS did have certain advantages the N64 didn't have, such as better and more complete rosters, proper licenses,  media (voice, pop music). These are things that made the PS versions superior. But I really was just talking in terms of graphics.

True, the HD systems have capabilities the Wii games can't take advantage of, but the question remains, that purely for business reasons, in support of the market leader, could these studios not put those features aside in order to offer a still very good game, and take that spared energy and place it on something else. You know as I do the answer is clearly yes, and the DS vs PSP demonstrated that.

Games that could fit the Wii would be more Japanese games: DmC, Megaman, Final Fantasy,... in other words game that require less realism than most western games.

Again, purely from a sales perspective, was it better to go PS360 rather than Wii? Comparing total PS360 sales to sales of the gen for a single goto plat (ie PS/PS2), it's a close call.

Since it's close, I can see why companies went that route, especially with the money incentives involved ;)



archbrix said:
Plezbo said:
Its hard to repeat the rabid success of the Wii. Doubtful it will happen again. Remember, Wii was IMPOSSIBLE to get for the first 18 months of its life, they were NOWHERE to be found in the US. I was actually able to turn a nice profit on several that I lucked into getting.

They weren't impossible to find, just incredibly difficult.  I was lucky enough to get mine on launch day but my friends weren't so lucky.  Stores would receive very small shipments of units trickling in here and there, and people would be lined up outside before the store was even open that day.  One friend actually got his the week before Christmas of '06 by waiting outside of Best Buy the night before they opened the next day.  Unless you just happened to show up right when a shipment arrived, this was par for the course for that 18 months.

With the Playstation 2 here in the US, however, it was literally impossible to get one for months, as Sony unloaded their entire stock in the first 24 hours, with no more units available at all to ship/sell until they made more.

With WiiU, Nintendo may not have that absurd 18 months that the Wii enjoyed, but we will undoubtedly see a similar situation this holiday.  The insane demand is certainly possible throughout next year, but is dependent on two main things:  The right price ($299-$349 would do it), and, most importantly, Nintendo having the right games to make the craze happen.

 

Impossible of course being hyperbole, but yes, as you said, unless you were there before the store opened, or very close to opening, NO WII FOR YOU.  I also got mine at launch, camped out in the Walmart parking lot til 6am because this Walmart wasnt doing the midnight launch thing, weak. 

I remember the PS2 launch well, several friends went to Best Buy and marched through school holding that blue box above their heads as they marched down the hall.  As I also remember, that launch had a pretty weak line up, but the graphics were so good for the time we didn't care.  

I do hope that Wii U is a smashing success.  I love Nintendo games, and want to be able to play them as they are meant to be played, on Nintendo consoles.  Can you imagine Microsoft or Sony allowing Mario to come out unfiltered on their platforms?  There would be online multiplayer and Yoshi Armor DLC tacked on.  Really looking forward to E3 so we can finally find out all the juicy details about this new beast.