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Forums - Nintendo - Pachter: "Wii U won't save Nintendo, phones took 35% of the market"

happydolphin on 29 February 2012
Dark_Lord_2008 said:
Nintendo will have more time to gain support from third party developers critical for its success.

Not only is this necessary so as to increase total HW sales, but it is important so as to reduce total HW sales of the competitors which take marketshare away from Nintendo and cause dev effort to be driven away onto competitor platforms.

It would also create more quality variety on the platform. This is important when aiming for incontestable #1 in the industry. Not just with sales, but with critical success accross 1st/2nd & 3rd party offerings.



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mrstickball on 29 February 2012
mike_intellivision said:
Squilliam said:
RolStoppable said:
Squilliam said:

What is exactly misleading here? I remember you didn't question pie charts when it was Nintendo Wii vs PS3 and Xbox 360 in total sales revenue. The pie chart is only questionable when it shows something that doesn't sit well with you? Anyway it is unlikely that a total revenue figure is going to be released unless Apple themselves decides to release one. I haven't seen anyone question the selling power of Steam, yet once more no total revenue figure is forthcoming.

If Nintendos losses are rooted in releasing an expensive hardware feature which doesn't pay for itself then that is their problem. It sounds a lot like the losses Sony incurred with the PS3 Blu Ray drive, I.E. big losses for little gain and in the end sales were determined by other factors. They didn't release a feature like that because they wanted to impress us with their technology, they wanted to make a handheld console with a gameplay feature which cannot be copied by iOS devices. Their new home console Wii U incorporates some of the tablet features of iOS devices, is this a coincidence?

Already got the revenue numbers which are as follows for the DS and PSP combined in 2009, 2010, 2011 (in billions): $2.2, $1.6, $1.4. DS and PSP declined at similar rates, so their respective share of these numbers is basically the same each year. These numbers don't show any unusual decline for video game systems that went into their fifth (2010) and sixth (2011) year. Therefore smartphones didn't have an impact on Nintendo's business.

No need to set up a strawman argument. I would have questioned pie charts for Wii vs. 360 vs. PS3 software revenue or total sales revenue all the same, because unit sales are a much more important metric. Since Wii games go for a lower price, percentage of revenue would put the Wii at a disadvantage in such a comparison.

And yes, Nintendo's hardware is their problem, caused by themselves. Not by Apple or any other smartphone manufacturer.

DS revenue = $1.89B 2009, $1.4B 2010, $1.2B 2011.

iOS game revenue (using typical 6:1 ratio with Android) = ~$1.6B 2011.

Suddenly some other handheld device has more gaming revenue than Nintendo and it's no big deal? I have a few HD console sales = whole console gaming market threads I want to sell you then.

Can I ask a dumb question ... What is the "typical 6;1 ratio with Android"?

Has there been some research on what Android users buy? Or are people using an estimated attach rate?

I am trying to learn here, not trying to be critical (at this time).

Mike from Morgantown

Its the current app purchasing ratio of iOS users to Android. For every $1 of content Android users buy, iOS users buy $6.

Its probably closer than that now. By EOY 2012, mobile gaming will make about $2.5 billion USD.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Alby_da_Wolf on 29 February 2012
happydolphin said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
dark_gh0st_b0y said:

Nintendo's not the one that needs to be saved...


Formally correct: you can't save who's already d0m3d.    Even less who's ALWAYS d0m3d!   

You mean Pachter? oO

Don't you dare making fun of teh Analyst God, lest you stir him to dreadful and righteous wrath and he unleashes teh powah of d0m3 on you!!!   



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


happydolphin on 29 February 2012
Alby_da_Wolf said:

Don't you dare making fun of teh Analyst God, lest you stir him to dreadful and righteous wrath and he unleashes teh powah of d0m3 on you!!!   

Lol, he shall get pwnd!



mike_intellivision on 29 February 2012
Ail said:

Most of you forget that Patcher is first and foremost a stock analyst.

His only job is to provide good stock recommandations...

Criticizing Nintendo and getting out of it is probably the best stock recommandations that was ever made half way through his gen.( missing the original boom was bad, but when you look at the flop that followed on the stock market, being out of Nintendo for the whole gen wasn't such a bad move..)

The whole gen he has been behind Activision too and that was a good stock pick too...

Stop looking at his recommandations through your fan eyes and you will see things differently.

If most of you fans had put all your money in Nintendo 4 years ago when you kept arguing it was the best gaming company in the world, most of you would be living in the street right now.........

From a financial point of view, I totally agree with him, getting into Nintendo right now, even at the current low price is a huge risk....

If you disagree with him, go buy Nintendo stock and we'll see 4 years from now, who is right and who is wrong...

 

Right now, whatever your console is ( and I am a PS3 fan), the stock to be in is Microsoft, not Sony or Nintendo. 

 

PS : and stop already with the third party conspiracy. It's your job as a hardware maker to ensure people develop for your hardware, if they don't , you did something wrong, not them.  It's like blaming every software company when noone was developing for the Mac in the 90s...

You are right in talking about what Pachter is supposed to be doing. But he has taken it to an entirely different level with his "analysis" and basically is talking about the company -- not its stock.

By the way, at least some people have Nintendo as a BUY right now -- which would fly in the face of Pachter's comments:

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/nintendo-stock-upgraded-to-super-mega-buy-game-trader/

http://www.wikiwealth.com/research:ntdoy

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/02/16/has-nintendo-lost-its-magic.aspx

 

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV
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oniyide on 29 February 2012
happydolphin said:
oniyide said:

actually I do know some RE fans who are not getting it because it is on 3DS, they dont want to buy a system for one game, that is just a few instances, but its not like the game si flying off the shelves, im sure it will do well in the long run.

I think the data shows that most people would prefer to play games on the PS360 on WIi, hell look at Rayman Origins, it has the charm that you speak off. But the Wii version is the worst selling of the consoles, which is a surprise to me. SF4, yeah that could have worked on Wii, the fact that their was an Ipone version is probably salt to the would for some, but you also have to consider the online portion. Its not like the WIi is good in that area, was Capcom willing to do more work having to dumb down not just the game but the online to sell a game that most people would have not bought on WIi anyway??? It would have been a good gesture, but would it have been worth it? Only Capcom really knows

Disagree on the charm aspect, IMHO i think that is just something Wii owners come to terms with to compensate for not being able to handle certain types of games, lets be real here, it isnt like those games you mentioned couldnt run on a PS360 or PC. Hell people do just that with the Dolphin emulator AND it looks better. Then you have the Braids, Trines, Raymans, Sonics. no it would lose no charm

Some people still play 8-bit games, 16-bit games, and thoroughly enjoy the art style and graphics of those games. Even if the platforms they are on don't bolster HD capabilities, these games are still very charming to them.

I had a conversation about this with a vendor at my local electronics store (Future Shop) last year. I was telling the guy that sometimes too much definition ruins the experience (we were talking about movies). You see actors' makeup, skin defects, and all kinds of glare you might not necessarily enjoy (I know I often don't). The guy understood what I was talking about and even expanded on what I was saying, and said I wasn't alone in thinking that. Of course I don't mean HD is bad, come on, what I mean is that SD still has lots of value in my eyes. Maybe I'm just traditionalist, what can I say? For that we'll have to agree to disagree, but know that there is at least 1 customer that still throroughly enjoys older graphics (me).

"actually I do know some RE fans who are not getting it because it is on 3DS"

Seriously? Wow. Of course it's worth buying the plat for one game at the price it's at, plus all the great stuff it'll get, especially if they're RE fans (come on). But they must be expecting it on other platforms (which isn't going to happen).

Whether it sells or not is a different topic, the fact is it's top-tier. Any RE fan should get it.

@SFIV, with Brawl selling a good 10Mil, SFIV should have released on the Wii, but that's not something I'll argue I got over that one. Got a 3DS with SFIV day one tho, almost bought an XBox arcade just for it (yeah, fans do that kind of thing).

dont get it twisted, i like old style games just as much as the next, guy. I log in HOURS on Scot Pilgrim and that is straight SD and I stll pull out the Sonic2 every now and then, but why not have my cake and eat it too?? Thats what PS360 provide, they can give you both. Where the Wii can only seem to do one.

Hey man, Im just telling you what two of my friends said. There just not feeling the 3DS and that one game is not convincing them, whatcha gonna do?? Also keep in mind there is a new numbered entry coming this year and the online one in a few weeks, so they just might feel that they dont need to play this one, Im not a big fan myself, the only one I enjoyed was 4. I rather watch other people play it.



happydolphin on 29 February 2012
oniyide said:

dont get it twisted, i like old style games just as much as the next, guy. I log in HOURS on Scot Pilgrim and that is straight SD and I stll pull out the Sonic2 every now and then, but why not have my cake and eat it too?? Thats what PS360 provide, they can give you both. Where the Wii can only seem to do one.

Hey man, Im just telling you what two of my friends said. There just not feeling the 3DS and that one game is not convincing them, whatcha gonna do?? Also keep in mind there is a new numbered entry coming this year and the online one in a few weeks, so they just might feel that they dont need to play this one, Im not a big fan myself, the only one I enjoyed was 4. I rather watch other people play it.

Oh yeah, I see what you mean. I'm not 100% an RE fan so I guess that could be a way to go about it. No diss intended.

About the dual (HD/SD) idea, you are totally right. BUT! Since Wii was market leader, SD top-tier was its offerings. If 3rd parties wanted to offer top tier HD, yeah PS360 were there, true. But for SD it was Wii's turf because they were market leader for a really long time. Also problem was SD to HD ratio was really low for top-tier games, I think that's been Rol's beef all along. Keep in mind alot of my reasoning stems from my understanding and from what others here have taught me (you included), i.e. stuff that makes sense.



Ail on 29 February 2012
mike_intellivision said:
Ail said:

Most of you forget that Patcher is first and foremost a stock analyst.

His only job is to provide good stock recommandations...

Criticizing Nintendo and getting out of it is probably the best stock recommandations that was ever made half way through his gen.( missing the original boom was bad, but when you look at the flop that followed on the stock market, being out of Nintendo for the whole gen wasn't such a bad move..)

The whole gen he has been behind Activision too and that was a good stock pick too...

Stop looking at his recommandations through your fan eyes and you will see things differently.

If most of you fans had put all your money in Nintendo 4 years ago when you kept arguing it was the best gaming company in the world, most of you would be living in the street right now.........

From a financial point of view, I totally agree with him, getting into Nintendo right now, even at the current low price is a huge risk....

If you disagree with him, go buy Nintendo stock and we'll see 4 years from now, who is right and who is wrong...

 

Right now, whatever your console is ( and I am a PS3 fan), the stock to be in is Microsoft, not Sony or Nintendo. 

 

PS : and stop already with the third party conspiracy. It's your job as a hardware maker to ensure people develop for your hardware, if they don't , you did something wrong, not them.  It's like blaming every software company when noone was developing for the Mac in the 90s...

You are right in talking about what Pachter is supposed to be doing. But he has taken it to an entirely different level with his "analysis" and basically is talking about the company -- not its stock.

By the way, at least some people have Nintendo as a BUY right now -- which would fly in the face of Pachter's comments:

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/nintendo-stock-upgraded-to-super-mega-buy-game-trader/

http://www.wikiwealth.com/research:ntdoy

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/02/16/has-nintendo-lost-its-magic.aspx

 

Mike from Morgantown


Yeah but those aren't very good at stock picking.

The company that has it as a super mega buy already had it as a buy when it was as it's all time high. So people that followed their advice basically lost half of what they invested in Nintendo..



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

oniyide on 29 February 2012
happydolphin said:
oniyide said:

dont get it twisted, i like old style games just as much as the next, guy. I log in HOURS on Scot Pilgrim and that is straight SD and I stll pull out the Sonic2 every now and then, but why not have my cake and eat it too?? Thats what PS360 provide, they can give you both. Where the Wii can only seem to do one.

Hey man, Im just telling you what two of my friends said. There just not feeling the 3DS and that one game is not convincing them, whatcha gonna do?? Also keep in mind there is a new numbered entry coming this year and the online one in a few weeks, so they just might feel that they dont need to play this one, Im not a big fan myself, the only one I enjoyed was 4. I rather watch other people play it.

Oh yeah, I see what you mean. I'm not 100% an RE fan so I guess that could be a way to go about it. No diss intended.

About the dual (HD/SD) idea, you are totally right. BUT! Since Wii was market leader, SD top-tier was its offerings. If 3rd parties wanted to offer top tier HD, yeah PS360 were there, true. But for SD it was Wii's turf because they were market leader for a really long time. Also problem was SD to HD ratio was really low for top-tier games, I think that's been Rol's beef all along. Keep in mind alot of my reasoning stems from my understanding and from what others here have taught me (you included), i.e. stuff that makes sense.

Its all good, some people just dont have the time, energy or funds to buy systems just for one game, not in this economy anyway. No matter how much they may like it, and my friends are the ones that defend the franchise and even watch the damn movies. IMHO, i just think Capcom is going crazy with RE and they are going to oversaturate the series, I think we might be seeing that with RE R, but i wont know for sure until the other two come out.

Yeah your right it was market leader, I think what happened was they saw how well the WiiSports/Fit were doing compared to everything else and decided to go that route for Wii, now lets take UBi, they make a killing on AC and JD, JD costs them nothing to make for Wii, AC is pretty damn expensive, but they both make them money. Yes a AC game for Wii would be cheaper than an AC game for HD, but it would still be more expensive than JD and wouldnt even sell anywher near as much as JD on Wii or AC on PS360. Yeah they made one for PSP and DS, but those didnt exactly fly off the shelves themselves, hell I think IMHO it would have done worst. Thats just an example. And really that scenario has always been like that. Its the same thing on HDs, just replace dance with FPSs, last gen it was sandbox, before that...JRPGS and 3d plats, before that 2d plats. Yes if you are a Wii only owner, it sucks to be you sometimes, but fortunately this will never happen again.



happydolphin on 29 February 2012
oniyide said:

Its all good, some people just dont have the time, energy or funds to buy systems just for one game, not in this economy anyway. No matter how much they may like it, and my friends are the ones that defend the franchise and even watch the damn movies. IMHO, i just think Capcom is going crazy with RE and they are going to oversaturate the series, I think we might be seeing that with RE R, but i wont know for sure until the other two come out.

Yeah your right it was market leader, I think what happened was they saw how well the WiiSports/Fit were doing compared to everything else and decided to go that route for Wii, now lets take UBi, they make a killing on AC and JD, JD costs them nothing to make for Wii, AC is pretty damn expensive, but they both make them money. Yes a AC game for Wii would be cheaper than an AC game for HD, but it would still be more expensive than JD and wouldnt even sell anywher near as much as JD on Wii or AC on PS360. Yeah they made one for PSP and DS, but those didnt exactly fly off the shelves themselves, hell I think IMHO it would have done worst. Thats just an example. And really that scenario has always been like that. Its the same thing on HDs, just replace dance with FPSs, last gen it was sandbox, before that...JRPGS and 3d plats, before that 2d plats. Yes if you are a Wii only owner, it sucks to be you sometimes, but fortunately this will never happen again.

RE:R was what many call a much needed return to the franchise's roots. But I think we're going off for RE, we founds lots of common ground on it, and I understand your buddies not being able to afford two plats. In my story, I didn't end up buying the 360 with SFIV, but I was very, very tempted to, if I remember correctly I was picking up the box to get ready to buy it, but decided not to. It was a bad move the 360 would've provided lots of fun, but what the heck.

@Bold, I'm glad you mentioned that, and it's so true. But the 2nd part of the sentence, it not selling as much as AC on PS360 is debatable. Not as much as JD is highly likely, but not as much as AC on PS360.

Assassin's Creed (9.38M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 Assassin's Creed X360 2007 Adventure Ubisoft 2.99 1.49 0.07 0.51 5.06
4 Assassin's Creed PS3 2007 Adventure Ubisoft 1.72 1.77 0.09 0.74 4.32
Total                   9.38

 

Assassin's Creed II (9.62M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
2 Assassin's Creed II PS3 2009 Action Ubisoft 2.09 1.81 0.21 0.79 4.89
3 Assassin's Creed II X360 2009 Action Ubisoft 2.66 1.51 0.08 0.48 4.73
Total                   9.62

 

Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood (8.02M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
5 Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood X360 2010 Action Ubisoft 2.31 1.34 0.03 0.41 4.09
6 Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood PS3 2010 Action Ubisoft 1.46 1.68 0.11 0.68 3.93
Total                   8.02

 

Assassin's Creed: Revelations (6.36M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
7 Assassin's Creed: Revelations X360 2011 Action Ubisoft 1.73 1.15 0.02 0.33 3.24
8 Assassin's Creed: Revelations PS3 2011 Action Ubisoft 1.06 1.44 0.06 0.57 3.12
Total                   6.36

 

Just Dance (Main entries. Low: 6.61M, High: 8.97M)

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 Just Dance 2 Wii 2010 Misc Ubisoft 5.44 2.66 0.01 0.87 8.97
2 Just Dance 3 Wii 2011 Misc Ubisoft 3.94 2.66 0.00 0.76 7.36
3 Just Dance Wii 2009 Misc Ubisoft 3.07 2.82 0.00 0.71 6.61

 

I'd agree that a Wii flavor of AC could at most reach the sales volume of one of the HD twins, so 4-5M. True, Just Dance was the right business choice for Ubisoft, especially for a dev-intensive game as AC. Great Point.

I never thought of it that way. Question though, what was the performance of AC (1) prior to the expansion of the HD market (due to games like AC)? This would help answer the final question. Are AC sales high due to 3rd parties favoring the HD twins, or are they high on the HD twins, hence the sound business decision. I've brought up lots of numbers, it's your turn Oni . I'm curious to know the answer!