TheSource said: I keep saying this but..I don't think that Wii will ever pass 360 in America. It doesn't need to on a gloabal basis to sell the most hardware and software. In recent weeks, Wii accounts for 2x+ the the combined sales of PS3 & 360 in Japan. Wii's lead over 360 in Japan will soon become so large over 360 that it will offset the 360's lead in the USA - especially as that lead slowly shrinks year to year. Sales rates are roughly 80k Wii, 50k Xbox 360 in non-holiday weeks in the USA. With Wii supply constrained, and 360 getting major software throughout the year, there will be times when 360 outsells Wii in America this year. If you look at it for the whole year (with holidays that is), I think the average Wii closing in on 360 rate would be about 8-12k per week, not the 30k it was in Jan-Feb and early March (before supply got tight). At those rates Wii would gain about 400-600k on 360 per year in the USA. But, I don't think that rate will hold up for 5 years +. When the main 360 sku is in the $200's it will probably be seen as the system worth the most for your buck in the USA, while Wii will be a close second with it's crazy motion games, Nintendo games, 3rd party exclusives, and cheaper price.
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I dunno I think it's going to be close here in North America. Microsoft dominates North America largely because North America is their number one target audience. Japan is deffinatly a place where Microsoft has been trying to show some of its financial power. However in North America Halo3/HaloWars/Fable2/Banjo-Kazooie and the countless other titles yet to be announced should give it a good position against Nintendo on a continental basis.
The biggest thing Microsoft has going for it is its Live service. However despite its quality I am beggining to have my doubts as to its ability to remain the dominant platform. The yearly fee of 50+$ is too much for some consumers and many will prefer the cost less competition. Despite Microsoft's dominance in quality they have to worry about consumers finances. Maybe Microsoft could cut the price altogether or how about cutting the Price to say 10 or so dollars a year.
Halo3 is going to get some mad competition from SmashBros:Brawl this fall. If both titles are fully online its going to be the battle of a life time to see just which online network can hold dominant participation numbers. Will the amount of online Nintendo gamers out number those of online Microsoft gamers. If the Live service is no longer dominant (participation wise) can it maintain dominance sales wise. Or will gamers begin to turn to the cheaper alternatives.
The Elite should help Microsoft remain dominant in North America this fall but it won't helop them much come next year. Also Microsoft's choice to have a four year life cycle over the industry standard 5-year cycle has hurt it with the origional X-Box. After 360 launched the orgional X-Box went on a downward spiral and is now practically dead this gave GameCube a year to surpass Microsoft's sales for a Nintendo victory (Globally)!
So will Microsoft really be able to beat Nintendo, I don't know. I won't claim to know its going to be very very very close. I wish them bost the ebst of luck!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer