Something which was once a dead cert, is no longer.

With the news from Nintendo that the Wii sold 4.5m in 2011, and has hit 39m install base, this leaves them down YoY 2.5m and 6.1m behind the PS2.

Now the PS2 isn't going to grow much more, it's selling 10 - 15k a month, likely less in 2012, lifetime will be something like 46.3 tops.

How do you predict the next few years panning out for the Wii in the US?

A scenario, feel free to nitpick it.

2012: 3m - 1.5m YoY drop, Jan - Oct are incredibly low, sometimes hitting under 100k, few months above 200k. Nov and Dec down yoy (1.3m combined)
2013: 1.5m - another 1.5m YoY drop, all attention is on WiiU now, Wii fails to be the legacy console with cheaper X360 and PS3 deals on the market.
2014 and Beyond: 1m

Total: 5.5m: 800k behind PS2 lifetime

Good question this... could go either way.

But I'm going to say no, I think the Wii will drop too hard too fast for it to surpass the PS2 LTD, and I don't see it becoming the "legacy console" of choice like the PS2 was/is.

I still think it has a shot, particularly when the system gets down to $99 and there are more releases in the Nintendo Selects line. It's not a certainty, though.

@ millenium it is the legacy console of choice already- with 94.6 million sold are you kidding me, and the ds has already took ps2s spot! so your to late on that one , and yes with marioparty 9 fortune street , the new zelda recently, kirby, those operation rainfall games people were whining about for so long i lost count on how many threads their were, about these titles, so they better go out and buy them -or theyll prove that they would break under pressure,

and with a whole year to go ,,
we still got e3 nintendo always has the last say in its console ,

they may suprise everyone at e3 with wii remember wii u is bc so , it wouldnt make since to drop wii just because wii u is coming , maybe theyll get one of the games they hadnt got on wii yet on wii before it goes out ,

you never know

and i really dont think it matters if wii over takes ps2 --because ds is a nintendo product and it has already done that ,

in 6 million more units nintendo will do what no one else has done before -

sell 100 million home consoles and 100 million portables in the same gen , ,
also this would put sonys 2 gens to shame lol all the work sony has put to put a record up with 2 streght gens at 100 m will be worthless cause nintendo was able to do it in one gen!


and ftr 3ds looks like itll be another close one ,
at this rate its selling slighlty more better then ds

na, I think Wii will finished around 43M LT in USA.

What a dreadful post

Not sure, it depends. Every holiday season it seems like Wii could stabilize at acceptable levels, but then it touches a new negative record. A new price cut could work for a few weeks, but again, if the HD crowd didn't buy one when great games came out (Zelda for example) I don't think many will in that case. Xenoblade or the new releases won't push many systems, only a new multi-million seller could (WS3? WF3? NSMBW2?). Actually the only territory in which the decline is good is japan, where Nintendo did a good job with a game each month (and not even a price cut, but still it declined less YoY). Will reach 4.5m for sure, but probably not beyond.

i thought for sure this would happen a year ago.....but now.....hmmmm

wii sales kinda fell off a cliff

I stopped reading half way in...

Just like most of this posts to be honest.

44M.

OP: No.