Yeah, I probably stated that to definatively. I should say I think 360 will outsell PS3 over holidays although I think EMEAA and Japan will keep PS3 close enough that WW will come close to a tie. I still favour the PS3 to be ahead WW for 2011 but it's going to be close and I can see 360 reaching a draw.
But... all speculation of course as you note and far from a given.
I do wonder how things would be if PS3 had a MW3 bundle in EMEAA. I'm presuming MS paid to have exclusive WW bundle so it was probably impossible but on these numbers it's likely PS3 would have remained even closer to 360 with such a bundle in EMEAA.
Most likely, it's going to be far from a draw. I can see the PS3 still leading the 360 at the end of the year by ~800K-1M. As I point out here, the overall gap may have gone down by ~115K, but last week the 360 needed to outsell the PS3 by 230K (and every week from then on) for there to be a draw. Since that didn't happen, the 360 now needs to outsell the PS3 by 249K a week for 6 more weeks to tie it. That MAY happen Black Friday week and a couple weeks in Dec, but definitely not the rest of the year.
Well, truthfully, I didn't know the tidbit about UK sales til after I had posted that. But, considering I didn't just pull any of that from my ass, my argument was still far from rubbish. I will admit I was proven wrong, though.