@Rol, when does a lifetime sales bet come due? You're not planning on posting here well into your retirement years are you?

I have to give this one to GTAIV but not by the margins that GTAIII vs SSBM would indicate. First issue for GTAIV to deal with will be the typical decline in sales of sequels (FF7 sold almost 10 million, FF8 under 8 for example although admittedly GTA hass a bit more checkered up and down sequence). The second issue it will have to deal with is not as many gamers to buy the game. The 360 and PS3 won't equal the PS2's sales combined much less the sales of the PS2 and Xbox. Thirdly, like Halo 3, it will find that it doesn't have a lock on the genre nor will it feel so fresh and new like its predecessor did.

Of course one difficulty with comparing GTA3 is that there were 3 games on 2 seperate consoles for 5 editions total. Their total sales were 45 million or 9 million per edition. My own expectations are for GTA4 to do about 12-14 million combined. SSBB should do much better than SSBM but I don't think it'll doing staggeringly better, more like 10-12 million. It should be enough to beat GTA4 on the 360 alone but I think SSBB will be beaten by a small-decent margin on both systems combined.

in the early run GTA4 will win but in the end SSBB will end with higher sales

san andreas sold almost 20 million copies with ps2 and xbox sales combined.
what makes you guys so sure that SSBB will sell three times as much as melee did? (assuming that GTA4 can match san andreas sales)

At the beginning, GTA 4 (together, not singularly) will outsell SSBB, in the end (lets say 2 years) it'll be a clear lifetime lead for brawl

x360 and PS3 are at ~25mil together atm, lets be optimistic and say it'll be at 30mil by the time GTA4 launches..  What was the LTD of PS2+Xbox when San Andreas launched?

ah touch'e.

brawl will outsell gta4 COMBINED pretty easily; at least a few million

a) wii will have over 50% market share by this fall
b) smash historically has higher attach rate
c) gtas for ps2 did subsequently better each year as the userbase was bigger; this time the userbase is much smaller
d) a lot of the more casual gamers who bought gta on ps2 are only getting a wii this generation, thus taking away sales
e) legs legs legs...this will be only smash bros for wii (maybe last one ever), whereas there will be another gta within 18-30 months of gta4

smash bros brawl will sell more than any gta has ever sold (15mil is the best gta for a system so far, and gta4 won't top 15mil)



in fact, i'd bet that the 3-year sales of the following games will all beat the 3-year sales of GTA4 on both consoles combined:

super smash bros

super mario galaxy

mario kart

wii fit

wii play

bah, i don't have time for your mind games.

Hmm. Gona say GTA4 combined by a margin but close on single platforms to brawl give or take, even with the wii lead in hardware. GTA4 will be massive especially if there are more price drops for the 360 and PS3. This is life time btw not weekly or wahtever. Guess Guess Guess

my vote was on SSBM

 I agree... on both the comment and the question.