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Forums - Sales - A lot of big games in EMEAA overtracked? Including gasp Halo Reach and Gran Turismo 5

Slimebeast on 18 November 2011
ethomaz said:
Kynes said:
ethomaz said:

Kynes said:

 Whatever you want to believe to be happy. Just a question, how much did you predict GT5 would sell LTD?

I predicted it will be the 2nd best selling GT to date... so over 11.19m shipped.


http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3760776

 

LTD (2016)

NA: 5.4m
EU: 7.7m
 JP: 1.9m

 

It seems that you predicted in this site 15 millions. I would be very disappointed if I were as passionate about GT as you are. Don't try to change the reality, it is what it is.

That was my heavy bundled prediction (like GT3 or Forza 3)... my normal prediction is just the 2nd fastest selling GT ever .

Anyway... GT5 is selling on pair with my predition: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=125037

No disappointment yet .

So you have two predictions for the same game, one "heavy bundle" prediction ( ) that you put in the prediction thread and then a "normal" prediction you hide from everyone else. Damage control. Sometimes you are very funny ethomaz.



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atma998 on 18 November 2011
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
_mevildan said:
Michael-5 said:
enrageorange said:
Michael-5 said:
mjk45 said:
I think your forgetting the middle east they seem to have gotten behind the PS3 also NDP only tracks NA where as Vgchartz is Americas as to Polophony I will leave that to ethmoza .

NDP only tracks USA, not Canada. VGC include Brazil, Mexico, and many other regions for it's Americas number. However a while ago I read that 87% of the Americas sales are contributed to US sales, and I would assume 8.7% contribute to Canada (1/10th the population).

As for EMEAA, not only did the OP forget the middle east, but they also forgot Africa. In the Middle East, Africa and Asia territory, there are 5 million PS3's and 3 million 360's. 600k for GT5 or Halo off 5 or 3 million consoles is very doable.

That and VGC now track Halo Reach digital sales from the bundle, NDP doesn't include those numbers.

by asia I meant most of the middle east as well which  polyphony includes as part of their asia numbers. As for Africa I have no idea if they would be included under Asia or Europe but either way there is no way Africa is such a signifcant portion of EMEAA.

The population of Africa is 1 billion people. The number of console gamers there likely exceeds the Middle East. I remember when Halo 3 came out, they had a world map and stars representing clusters of gamers. Most gamers were east/west coast USA/Canada, and there were a lot in Western Europe. However outside of NA and EU, the only places I remember seeing stars were Africa (South Africa and Tanzania), Brazil, and a little bit in Japan.

I said earlier, if US is 87% of Americas, and Canada is 8.7%, then there is still 8.3% of Americas sales contributed to South America. I wouldn't think Africas software sales are any different then South Americas. So if Halo Reach sold 7 million in Americas, this corresponds to 600k sales in South America, which correspond to 600k sales in Africa, which....is magically almost exactly the missing amount from your data.

You might be skeptical that Africa gets as many console sales as South America, but believe me, I've been to Tanzania, it's not as rural as you think. Also unlike Brazil, consoles aren't heavily taxed (a 360 now is still a $600 system there), so even if there are less gamers in South Africa and the east coast, more are able to buy the games.

Video games are quite popular in South Africa. How many numbers in sales that translates to... not sure. But we have dedicated games retailers here, with midnight launches for bigger games and such things. We get offical ranked servers for the big FPSs etc. If that means anything.

PC gaming is especially huge here. RPGs, racing games and shooters seem to me the most popular. Between X360, PS3, Wii... it seems to me that more people own Xboxes, but PS3 games sell more (i'll let you figure out why). Basing that on what I see on popular online retailers. Wii popularity... not sure (i've got one though).

Also, Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy and Assassin's Creed are very popular titles here. Halo... not so much.

All just my experience, but there you go.

Exactly my point, the economy of South Africa isn't that different from the US or Canada, and the population is about 1.5 times the size of Canada. So I wouldn't be surprised if South Afirza alone accounted for 400 out of the 600k missing in the OP. Add in Tanzania and other east coast countries and there is your missing sales.

Halo was just an example as it's one of the games listed in the OP, and like I said, I know a good amount of people in South Africa play Halo 3 because it's illuminated on the world play map.

Wrong.

The average annual income in South Africa is around 10,000$ per capita and and less than 2,000$ per capita for black people who counts for more than 80% of the population.

No way you can compare South Africa to Canada when it comes to video games sales. I'm pretty sure South Africa doesnt have 1/4 of video games sales in Canada.

average annual income per capita is actually 11k, and if it's 2k for black people, that means the capita is 42k per non black person. Canada's capita is 40k, and USA's is 50k (but don't be fooled, USA actually has the highest poverty rate of all the developed countries. They just have super corperations to balance this number).

So 20% of South Africa is stil 1/3rd the population of Canada, and the capita is the same. That would make 1/3rd the game sales very plausible (these places aren't as rural as you think). Johannesburg for instance is more populated then every city above north america except New Mexico, New York City, and Toronto (yay third biggest in NA).

Maybe 400k sales of some of these major franchise installments (lets use GT) might be much, but 200k from this country alone is damn well plausible. Also there are countries in the East coast of Africa, and middle east not accounted for.


I'm not buying that either.

Let's take your numbers, if all the rest of Americas (exluding USA and Canada) counts for 8.3% of Americas total, then it means that so far a game like GT5 has sold 161k over there. I don't see how african and middle east countries can count for around 4 times more sales than latin america.

Btw Toronto is not the third largest city in NA but the 5th and fall to 8th if we count the metropolitan areas :)



binary solo on 18 November 2011
Michael-5 said:
mjk45 said:
I think your forgetting the middle east they seem to have gotten behind the PS3 also NDP only tracks NA where as Vgchartz is Americas as to Polophony I will leave that to ethmoza .

NDP only tracks USA, not Canada. VGC include Brazil, Mexico, and many other regions for it's Americas number. However a while ago I read that 87% of the Americas sales are contributed to US sales, and I would assume 8.7% contribute to Canada (1/10th the population).

As for EMEAA, not only did the OP forget the middle east, but they also forgot Africa. In the Middle East, Africa and Asia territory, there are 5 million PS3's and 3 million 360's. 600k for GT5 or Halo off 5 or 3 million consoles is very doable.

That and VGC now track Halo Reach digital sales from the bundle, NDP doesn't include those numbers.

I think, because they can't track all games that have a dual digital and disc release, that VGC should not be tracking Halo Reach digital sales. It's somewhat distorting of the sales charts if some games are goona have digital sales incl and others not. Unless they track those sales separately so you can see what's digital and what's disc.

More generally though SW sales are known to be less accurate than HW sales on this site. This is a sales ESTIMATING site after all. So if GT5 appears to have a 500K discrepancy between reported and actual (which is by no means certain) then that's only a difference of 12%. Seems like a pretty good job of estimating sales to me. Not really worth making a big deal of.

Get back to me when sales are >20% out of whack.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

enrageorange on 18 November 2011

Ok a few things to add. Platinum just means the game sold over a certain amount which is not 4mil in Europe as ethomaz seems to mention way too often.

Second. At the end of 2010 polyphony only shipped 230k in ALL OF ASIA excluding Japan. It doesn't matter what the population of a country is. It matters how many of them actually buy consoles and games. So again. 3.2mil sold according to vgchartz while only 2mil sold in most of Europe is nearly impossible considering the asian shipment numbers.

Ethomaz's own numbers bite him in the ass. India a country with over a billion people only bought 20k copies of the game initially which might be considered good compared to other games, but is still terrible considering the population of the country. Clearly countries where the vast majority of the population live in poverty account for very little sales. So yes those 20 european countries listed make up the overwelming majority of sales in EMEAA. Finland has among the highest gdp per capita in the world hence why sales were actually good there. The only countries outside of Europe in EMEAA that have high gdps per capita are located in the middle east, quatar, Saudi Arabia, etc. That is part of Asia thus their sales can't account for over 230k according to polyphony's own shipment numbers. So it is very clearly overtracked in EMEAA. 

And someone mentioned the pal charts? There were dozens of weeks in 2011 where fifa 2011(PS3) and black ops(PS3) were ahead of GT5(PS3) in the pal charts in every single region listed, and yet GT5 was often outselling them in EMEAA according to vgchartz. The pal charts just showed that it has consistantly been overtracked throughout this year as well.



ethomaz on 18 November 2011
enrageorange said:

Ok a few things to add. Platinum just means the game sold over a certain amount which is not 4mil in Europe as ethomaz seems to mention way too often.

Sorry I didn't say that.

I said if Platinum has released in Europe that means almost all standard copies was sold... so near 4 million copies was sold in Europe befero the Platinum release.

There are no sense in ship the Platinum Edition before the stock of normal edition is not near to clear.

So the Platinum Edition just shows the 4 million shipped is almost over... now I can say with sales of the standard and platinum the game shell more than 4 millions in Europe for sure.

The standard edition shipment in Europe: 3.97m *as of Dec 2010

How many Platinum edition has shipped for release (Ago 2011)?

In fact the Europe sales for GT5 is near or over 4 million units now and that is the worst case because PD could be shipped more standard edition (Mar 2011 or Jun 2011) befero the Platinum release .



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crissindahouse on 18 November 2011
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
_mevildan said:
Michael-5 said:
enrageorange said:
Michael-5 said:
mjk45 said:
I think your forgetting the middle east they seem to have gotten behind the PS3 also NDP only tracks NA where as Vgchartz is Americas as to Polophony I will leave that to ethmoza .

NDP only tracks USA, not Canada. VGC include Brazil, Mexico, and many other regions for it's Americas number. However a while ago I read that 87% of the Americas sales are contributed to US sales, and I would assume 8.7% contribute to Canada (1/10th the population).

As for EMEAA, not only did the OP forget the middle east, but they also forgot Africa. In the Middle East, Africa and Asia territory, there are 5 million PS3's and 3 million 360's. 600k for GT5 or Halo off 5 or 3 million consoles is very doable.

That and VGC now track Halo Reach digital sales from the bundle, NDP doesn't include those numbers.

by asia I meant most of the middle east as well which  polyphony includes as part of their asia numbers. As for Africa I have no idea if they would be included under Asia or Europe but either way there is no way Africa is such a signifcant portion of EMEAA.

The population of Africa is 1 billion people. The number of console gamers there likely exceeds the Middle East. I remember when Halo 3 came out, they had a world map and stars representing clusters of gamers. Most gamers were east/west coast USA/Canada, and there were a lot in Western Europe. However outside of NA and EU, the only places I remember seeing stars were Africa (South Africa and Tanzania), Brazil, and a little bit in Japan.

I said earlier, if US is 87% of Americas, and Canada is 8.7%, then there is still 8.3% of Americas sales contributed to South America. I wouldn't think Africas software sales are any different then South Americas. So if Halo Reach sold 7 million in Americas, this corresponds to 600k sales in South America, which correspond to 600k sales in Africa, which....is magically almost exactly the missing amount from your data.

You might be skeptical that Africa gets as many console sales as South America, but believe me, I've been to Tanzania, it's not as rural as you think. Also unlike Brazil, consoles aren't heavily taxed (a 360 now is still a $600 system there), so even if there are less gamers in South Africa and the east coast, more are able to buy the games.

Video games are quite popular in South Africa. How many numbers in sales that translates to... not sure. But we have dedicated games retailers here, with midnight launches for bigger games and such things. We get offical ranked servers for the big FPSs etc. If that means anything.

PC gaming is especially huge here. RPGs, racing games and shooters seem to me the most popular. Between X360, PS3, Wii... it seems to me that more people own Xboxes, but PS3 games sell more (i'll let you figure out why). Basing that on what I see on popular online retailers. Wii popularity... not sure (i've got one though).

Also, Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy and Assassin's Creed are very popular titles here. Halo... not so much.

All just my experience, but there you go.

Exactly my point, the economy of South Africa isn't that different from the US or Canada, and the population is about 1.5 times the size of Canada. So I wouldn't be surprised if South Afirza alone accounted for 400 out of the 600k missing in the OP. Add in Tanzania and other east coast countries and there is your missing sales.

Halo was just an example as it's one of the games listed in the OP, and like I said, I know a good amount of people in South Africa play Halo 3 because it's illuminated on the world play map.

Wrong.

The average annual income in South Africa is around 10,000$ per capita and and less than 2,000$ per capita for black people who counts for more than 80% of the population.

No way you can compare South Africa to Canada when it comes to video games sales. I'm pretty sure South Africa doesnt have 1/4 of video games sales in Canada.

average annual income per capita is actually 11k, and if it's 2k for black people, that means the capita is 42k per non black person. Canada's capita is 40k, and USA's is 50k (but don't be fooled, USA actually has the highest poverty rate of all the developed countries. They just have super corperations to balance this number).

So 20% of South Africa is stil 1/3rd the population of Canada, and the capita is the same. That would make 1/3rd the game sales very plausible (these places aren't as rural as you think). Johannesburg for instance is more populated then every city above north america except New Mexico, New York City, and Toronto (yay third biggest in NA).

Maybe 400k sales of some of these major franchise installments (lets use GT) might be much, but 200k from this country alone is damn well plausible. Also there are countries in the East coast of Africa, and middle east not accounted for.


I'm not buying that either.

Let's take your numbers, if all the rest of Americas (exluding USA and Canada) counts for 8.3% of Americas total, then it means that so far a game like GT5 has sold 161k over there. I don't see how african and middle east countries can count for around 4 times more sales than latin america.

Btw Toronto is not the third largest city in NA but the 5th and fall to 8th if we count the metropolitan areas :)


okay so you compare africa/middle east with south america because why? for example in germany every tenth household has a console and in usa i think every third or so. hell even between germany and uk is a huge difference. but you think africa and south america etc. have to have the same ratio? if usa has three times the ratio of germany it could be the same difference between africa and the whole south american continent. not that i believe that but your comparison makes absolutely no sense just because you compare poor with poor.

btw did you see the prices for consoles and games in brazil? 200 of the 400 million south americans live in brazil.

i made some of these comparisons as well with greece/portugal/bulgaria and so on but like i said that was only a fun calculation. but i was pretty sure gt isn't overtracked because of missing countries like switzerland which has only 8 million population but is rich like hell and i think they like videogames like the austrians. and yeah because of finland, norway, south africa, turkey...



Lostplanet22 on 18 November 2011
ethomaz said:
enrageorange said:

Ok a few things to add. Platinum just means the game sold over a certain amount which is not 4mil in Europe as ethomaz seems to mention way too often.

Sorry I didn't say that.

I said if Platinum has released in Europe that means almost all standard copies was sold... so near 4 million copies was sold in Europe befero the Platinum release.

There are no sense in ship the Platinum Edition before the stock of normal edition is not near to clear.

So the Platinum Edition just shows the 4 million shipped is almost over... now I can say with sales of the standard and platinum the game shell more than 4 millions in Europe for sure.

The standard edition shipment in Europe: 3.97m *as of Dec 2010

How many Platinum edition has shipped for release (Ago 2011)?

In fact the Europe sales for GT5 is near or over 4 million units now and that is the worst case because PD could be shipped more standard edition (Mar 2011 or Jun 2011) befero the Platinum release .

No,  you can find standard/platinum/classic editions of the same game in a store.   I saw it yesterday with COD MW 1.  Classic and standard edition. 



 

ethomaz on 18 November 2011
Lostplanet22 said:
ethomaz said:
enrageorange said:

Ok a few things to add. Platinum just means the game sold over a certain amount which is not 4mil in Europe as ethomaz seems to mention way too often.

Sorry I didn't say that.

I said if Platinum has released in Europe that means almost all standard copies was sold... so near 4 million copies was sold in Europe befero the Platinum release.

There are no sense in ship the Platinum Edition before the stock of normal edition is not near to clear.

So the Platinum Edition just shows the 4 million shipped is almost over... now I can say with sales of the standard and platinum the game shell more than 4 millions in Europe for sure.

The standard edition shipment in Europe: 3.97m *as of Dec 2010

How many Platinum edition has shipped for release (Ago 2011)?

In fact the Europe sales for GT5 is near or over 4 million units now and that is the worst case because PD could be shipped more standard edition (Mar 2011 or Jun 2011) befero the Platinum release .

No,  you can find standard/platinum/classic editions of the same game in a store.   I saw it yesterday with COD MW 1.  Classic and standard edition. 

Yeap... in some stores... some copies... but most copies in all stores is Platinum now... because that I said "almost sold 4 million"... so with the Platinum sales it was over 4 million just in Europe for sure.

Some online sites...

ShopTo: Just Platium Edition in stock.
Amazon.co.uk: Just Platinum Edtion in stock.
GamingReplay: All out of stock.



atma998 on 18 November 2011
crissindahouse said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
_mevildan said:
Michael-5 said:
enrageorange said:
Michael-5 said:
mjk45 said:
I think your forgetting the middle east they seem to have gotten behind the PS3 also NDP only tracks NA where as Vgchartz is Americas as to Polophony I will leave that to ethmoza .

NDP only tracks USA, not Canada. VGC include Brazil, Mexico, and many other regions for it's Americas number. However a while ago I read that 87% of the Americas sales are contributed to US sales, and I would assume 8.7% contribute to Canada (1/10th the population).

As for EMEAA, not only did the OP forget the middle east, but they also forgot Africa. In the Middle East, Africa and Asia territory, there are 5 million PS3's and 3 million 360's. 600k for GT5 or Halo off 5 or 3 million consoles is very doable.

That and VGC now track Halo Reach digital sales from the bundle, NDP doesn't include those numbers.

by asia I meant most of the middle east as well which  polyphony includes as part of their asia numbers. As for Africa I have no idea if they would be included under Asia or Europe but either way there is no way Africa is such a signifcant portion of EMEAA.

The population of Africa is 1 billion people. The number of console gamers there likely exceeds the Middle East. I remember when Halo 3 came out, they had a world map and stars representing clusters of gamers. Most gamers were east/west coast USA/Canada, and there were a lot in Western Europe. However outside of NA and EU, the only places I remember seeing stars were Africa (South Africa and Tanzania), Brazil, and a little bit in Japan.

I said earlier, if US is 87% of Americas, and Canada is 8.7%, then there is still 8.3% of Americas sales contributed to South America. I wouldn't think Africas software sales are any different then South Americas. So if Halo Reach sold 7 million in Americas, this corresponds to 600k sales in South America, which correspond to 600k sales in Africa, which....is magically almost exactly the missing amount from your data.

You might be skeptical that Africa gets as many console sales as South America, but believe me, I've been to Tanzania, it's not as rural as you think. Also unlike Brazil, consoles aren't heavily taxed (a 360 now is still a $600 system there), so even if there are less gamers in South Africa and the east coast, more are able to buy the games.

Video games are quite popular in South Africa. How many numbers in sales that translates to... not sure. But we have dedicated games retailers here, with midnight launches for bigger games and such things. We get offical ranked servers for the big FPSs etc. If that means anything.

PC gaming is especially huge here. RPGs, racing games and shooters seem to me the most popular. Between X360, PS3, Wii... it seems to me that more people own Xboxes, but PS3 games sell more (i'll let you figure out why). Basing that on what I see on popular online retailers. Wii popularity... not sure (i've got one though).

Also, Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy and Assassin's Creed are very popular titles here. Halo... not so much.

All just my experience, but there you go.

Exactly my point, the economy of South Africa isn't that different from the US or Canada, and the population is about 1.5 times the size of Canada. So I wouldn't be surprised if South Afirza alone accounted for 400 out of the 600k missing in the OP. Add in Tanzania and other east coast countries and there is your missing sales.

Halo was just an example as it's one of the games listed in the OP, and like I said, I know a good amount of people in South Africa play Halo 3 because it's illuminated on the world play map.

Wrong.

The average annual income in South Africa is around 10,000$ per capita and and less than 2,000$ per capita for black people who counts for more than 80% of the population.

No way you can compare South Africa to Canada when it comes to video games sales. I'm pretty sure South Africa doesnt have 1/4 of video games sales in Canada.

average annual income per capita is actually 11k, and if it's 2k for black people, that means the capita is 42k per non black person. Canada's capita is 40k, and USA's is 50k (but don't be fooled, USA actually has the highest poverty rate of all the developed countries. They just have super corperations to balance this number).

So 20% of South Africa is stil 1/3rd the population of Canada, and the capita is the same. That would make 1/3rd the game sales very plausible (these places aren't as rural as you think). Johannesburg for instance is more populated then every city above north america except New Mexico, New York City, and Toronto (yay third biggest in NA).

Maybe 400k sales of some of these major franchise installments (lets use GT) might be much, but 200k from this country alone is damn well plausible. Also there are countries in the East coast of Africa, and middle east not accounted for.


I'm not buying that either.

Let's take your numbers, if all the rest of Americas (exluding USA and Canada) counts for 8.3% of Americas total, then it means that so far a game like GT5 has sold 161k over there. I don't see how african and middle east countries can count for around 4 times more sales than latin america.

Btw Toronto is not the third largest city in NA but the 5th and fall to 8th if we count the metropolitan areas :)


okay so you compare africa/middle east with south america because why? for example in germany every tenth household has a console and in usa i think every third or so. hell even between germany and uk is a huge difference. but you think africa and south america etc. have to have the same ratio? if usa has three times the ratio of germany it could be the same difference between africa and the whole south american continent. not that i believe that but your comparison makes absolutely no sense just because you compare poor with poor.

btw did you see the prices for consoles and games in brazil? 200 of the 400 million south americans live in brazil.

i made some of these comparisons as well with greece/portugal/bulgaria and so on but like i said that was only a fun calculation. but i was pretty sure gt isn't overtracked because of missing countries like switzerland which has only 8 million population but is rich like hell and i think they like videogames like the austrians. and yeah because of finland, norway, south africa, turkey...


I know that population doesnt mean anything. For example, China has 1.4 billion people and I'm pretty sure its video game sales doesnt count for more than 1/20 of a country like the USA. The same goes for India. I'm just saying that if we compare Latin America (which is 600 million people btw not 400 million) to Africa, it doesnt make sense claiming that Africa and some Middle East countries sell 4 times more games than Latin America, specifically when we know that the standard of living is higher in Latin America than it is in Africa.



crissindahouse on 18 November 2011

mkay but when did i say latin america has 400 million population? i believe as well that africans and the middle east don't buy much more than latin americans but as an example how wrong you could be:

latin americans earn more than africans but of these there are 200 million brazilians who have to pay more than double the price or so for gaming than someone in europe or north america.. that's why it doesn't say a lot if brazilians could possibly buy games because they earn enough. i don't know how the economy looks like in argentina at the moment but everyone should know they had some serious trouble over years and even with their "good" gdp, if these people can afford consoles nowadays? i really don't know...

maybe many people in south america don't like to play on consoles even if they have money and many africans love it? that's what i meant we germans buy much less per capita than us-americans. they buy like three times more. maybe africans with money buy like 2-5 times more than south americans with money? do you know that?

i did never talk about the populations, only as i said that of these 400 million south americans 200 have to pay horrible prices even in switzerland or finland almost nobody would buy consoles for and i think in the usa the market would be 80% or so smaller as well then. maybe these prices are the same in the other south american countries? don't know about that.

and since i think only big cities will have some gamers in africa and latin america because of obvisiously reasons, i can think about more in africa/middle east than in south america because of brazilian problem. johannesburg, cape town, cairo, riyadh, jerusalem, dubai, abu dhabi and little smaller like kuwait city will have some gamers. maybe few gamers in cities like marrakech, rabat. heard about tanzania so daressalam and so on.

the infrastructure in some parts of the middle east is very good as it is in some african regions. sure buenos aires, cordoba, bogota and so shouldn't be forgotten but i think the cities i was telling have a better condition to be "video game cities"

and don't forget i don't say africa /middle east have more gamers. maybe in africa are much less than in south america i just can say what i think about the different regions if i examine them and about brazil. i think i would be a gamer living in abu dhabi or cape town with a decent job and i believe i wouldn't be one in bogota and absolutely no in brazil.