superchunk said: Jay520 said: @Superchunk This isn't 2006. Microsoft was almost forced to launch before the PS3 due to the extreme power of the Playstation brand and the equally miniscule Xbox brand. The 360 would have had a tough time competiting with the PS3 for that reason. Fast forward five years and the Xbox brand is on par with the Playstation brand, some could make the case that it's bigger. Microsoft doesn't need to launch before Sony, they already have the brand power AND much higher 360 sales compared to XB sales. They could ride the high success of the 360 next year, remain on par with Sony, and then release the Xbox3 in 2013. BTW, "anyone who thinks the PS4 will launch after 2013 is delusional?" Hmmm.. That's almost as controversial as your assertion that "You're not a real gamer if your not excited for the 3DS." If the world was only the US, then you're argument would make sense. However, in most of the world PS has already beat out 360 by a large number. MS knows as much as most of us do that next gen we won't see a PS4 that is $200 more than its nearest competition. Therefore they will want to have some advantage of PS beyond strong US sales. If a 2012 launch is possible with some key titles, it will surely happen.

Okay, with the chances of being called delusional, I'll still continue.

My argument still makes sense. The PS didn't beat out the 360 by a "large number." I don't know how you came to that conclusion

The XB is hugely popular in Americas, and it's on par with the PS3 in EMEAA. How far is the 360 behind in EMEAA? About a few million units, I think. So yeah, my point still stands, they're still on par with the PS Brand there and could do well if they wanted to launch head to head with the PS4.

You must be using Japan when drawing your conclusion that the 360 is lagging by a "large number. " Honestly, I doubt they really care about that region, certainly not enough for it to impact their launch decisions. They should just focus all their resources on EMEAA and the Americas, or in other words, everywhere except Japan.


As for the comment about them needing an advantage over the PS4 (assuming it is cheaper this time), I will repeat, they don't need an advantage. The XB is as strong as the PS brand, or at least, ON PAR as proven by my preceeding paragraphs.

It just doesn't seem likely that they'll release in 2012. With Halo the Xbox 360 still having record breaking months this year posting huge profit with no price cut, and then considering what they could do next year - price cut, Halo 4, GTA 5 - the 360 will still be posting huge profits, it's not very feasible to release the 720 next year, when they still have a LOT of oppurtunity with the X360. With the Xb brand being on par with the PS brand, a 2013 is perfectly reasonable, probable.

I've responded to the quotes in my previous post.

superchunk really forgets two things:

1. ps3 isn't way in front of the 360 in europe. sure it sells better but how much? if some company sells 10 million units of anything in one branch and the other one 15 million doesn't mean they are way ahead. this can be easily go otherwise one decade later. that's what my second point is

2. what i said yesterday playstation is a huge brand in europe it's almost bigger than the name sony itself. advertisements over one decade or even more now  in every champions league game and other huge sport events. the brand xbox was nothing in europe and this gen was the gen they got known here, not the first xbox. if i ask 100 people mid 40 i bet some still don't know what a xbox is and everyone knows the playstaion brand. that's important for gifts parents buy their childchren for example. it's very simple, the brand playstation can't grow anymore since playstation 2 in europe it's like coca cola everyone knows it and everyone calls it like that even if they talk about this kind of product in general.

the brand xbox has still plenty of room to grow and it will from year to year.

and then if the ps3 wouldn't have blu-ray and online gaming for free i bet it wouldn't sell better then in europe or only a small amount like 15% more or so which is nothing. if sony will take money for the ps4 online service like microsoft does their goes this advantage and if you look at how much sony lost i think they will do something like that. and if the ps4 won't have the blu-ray advantage because next xbox will have blu-ray as well or because everybody has a blu-ray player then this huge advantage isn't anymore as well.

personally i still think the ps4 will sell better than the next box in europe even with a earlier release of the next box but you really can't say that and for sure you can't say that one year will make the difference next generation between a huge advantage for ps4 (with simultaneous release) or only a small if next box comes out one year earlier.

the success of the ps2 is still in the heads and many people who only think about playstation if the think about buying a console but this won't be so much the case for the next gen i think. the horrible start of the 360 with the rrod didn't help a lot as well neither does the name microsoft help here. it's one of the most hated companies in europe because of some shitty windows systems but i feel like this hate is shrinking as well.

padib said: @bolded. What if Nintendo's next ace card isn't NSMB et al., but to start putting serious effort into more mature games and leading with exclusives in that realm of entertainment? Do you think it's possible? Do you think that could be their surprise move next gen, or do you think, given their internal resources and current/upcoming business strategy, that it would be completely unfeasible?

i think they will hope for more mature content from other developers  that's why the next xbox/ps4 have to have much better specs than wii u. if not wii u will get the same games as next xbox and ps4 which wouldn't be so good for them then with this lineup + nintendos great games. and maybe they will do a great horror game one time i don't think nintendo will make realistic racers/shooters but i really can think about a horror game from them don't know why.

padib said: HappySqurriel said: archbrix said: HappySqurriel said: archbrix said: HappySqurriel said: Right now Nintendo will be launching as the successor to the market leading console, potentially with a significant price advantage, and if they have 12+ months to build a user-base and game library it could be very bad for Sony and Microsoft. Essentially, consider how much more difficult it will be to sell the "XBox 1080" if there is a system that is $100+ less expensive, has an established library of games, most big "XBox 1080" are cross platform and released to this system, and most of the benefit of the "XBox 1080" are difficult to notice enhancements or require you to buy a new TV. True, but will Wii U be able to court many of the Xbox/PS fanbase within a years time, when they can get all of the same cross-platform games on the systems they already own?  Yes, the Wii U versions will be better, but most could likely make due until 2013 knowing that the Xbox 1080 is just around the corner.  And I believe that the Wii U will be very successful; again, great for Nintendo and their fans, but not necessarily spelling instant doom for Microsoft if they wait a year and thrive off of the 360 in the meantime. if Nintendo can make the Wii U a success, could prevent the adoption of other platforms. After all, one of the unique features of this generation was the growth of multi-console ownership but, if Nintendo can get people to adopt to them first and limits the value of buying an additional system, that trend could be reversed in the next generation. In the words of Optimus Prime, whenever asked if Megatron was gone forever: "I wish I could believe that..."   I'm not saying that Nintendo is ensured success, but it is a very bad business strategy to cross your fingers and hope that your competition screws up ... I have no idea what Nintendo has in store, but if I was Microsoft or Sony I would be worried that they were going to release the next "Brain Training", "Wii Fit", "New Super Mario Bros", or "Wii Sports" (basically, exciting/new 20+ Million selling game) before I even released my system @bolded. What if Nintendo's next ace card isn't NSMB et al., but to start putting serious effort into more mature games and leading with exclusives in that realm of entertainment? Do you think it's possible? Do you think that could be their surprise move next gen, or do you think, given their internal resources and current/upcoming business strategy, that it would be completely unfeasible?

In the way you (probably) mean "Mature", I don't think so ...

While we are moving towards a market where every demographic plays videogames, it is also a market where companies focus a disproportionate amount of their resources towards a single demographic; male gamers between the age of (about) 13 and 25. The conventional wisdom within the industry is that, since these gamers buy the most games they should focus all of their resources towards making games for these gamers. Unfortunately, they don’t consider that these gamers buy more games simply because there are far more high quality games that target them.

Since 2004 Nintendo's greatest successes have come from making games that targeted gamers outside of this core-demographic, with games like Brain Training which appealed to older gamers, Wii Fit which appealed heavily to women (although I wouldn't say it was strictly for women), and New Super Mario bros. which appealed to lapsed gamers. If I was Nintendo I would continue to focus on this and to become the console that is brought into a home to for the mother, father, sister or young children and then have a secondary focus on ensuring solid third party support so that "core" gamers see little reason to buy an additional console. Certainly, I would expect Nintendo to still produce games for their dedicated fan base and I wouldn't be surprised to see some increased efforts to appeal to core gamers, but I doubt Nintendo can get the growth they desire from targeting these gamers.

padib said: crissindahouse said: padib said: @bolded. What if Nintendo's next ace card isn't NSMB et al., but to start putting serious effort into more mature games and leading with exclusives in that realm of entertainment? Do you think it's possible? Do you think that could be their surprise move next gen, or do you think, given their internal resources and current/upcoming business strategy, that it would be completely unfeasible? i think they will hope for more mature content from other developers  that's why the next xbox/ps4 have to have much better specs than wii u. if not wii u will get the same games as next xbox and ps4 which wouldn't be so good for them then with this lineup + nintendos great games. and maybe they will do a great horror game one time i don't think nintendo will make realistic racers/shooters but i really can think about a horror game from them don't know why. Eternal Darkness or Luigi's Mansion maybe :) For racers, they co-developed F-Zero GX (their IP), and had an important hand in Metroid Prime (GC) and Golden Eye/Perfect Dark (N64). They have also made some core RPGs such as Fire Emblem and Super Mario RPG (in the past). Once in a blue moon Zelda was also considered for older gamers (at time of NES).

yeah i know about f-zero and so but that's not really a realistic game is it? ;)  you are right with golden eye that was "realistic" if we can call it so with all these gadgets but i don't see games like forza or uncharted from nintendo anytime soon.

crissindahouse said: padib said: @bolded. What if Nintendo's next ace card isn't NSMB et al., but to start putting serious effort into more mature games and leading with exclusives in that realm of entertainment? Do you think it's possible? Do you think that could be their surprise move next gen, or do you think, given their internal resources and current/upcoming business strategy, that it would be completely unfeasible?   that's why the next xbox/ps4 have to have much better specs than wii u. if not wii u will get the same games as next xbox and ps4 which wouldn't be so good for them then with this lineup + nintendos great games.

It doesn't work like that. MS and Sony cannot put out consoles so much more powerful than Wii U that It's unable to get ports, especially since Wii U will have a modern architecture which was the biggest reason Wii didn't get ports.

Anything on PS4 and 720 will be port-able and scalable to Wii U.

Play4Fun said: crissindahouse said: padib said: @bolded. What if Nintendo's next ace card isn't NSMB et al., but to start putting serious effort into more mature games and leading with exclusives in that realm of entertainment? Do you think it's possible? Do you think that could be their surprise move next gen, or do you think, given their internal resources and current/upcoming business strategy, that it would be completely unfeasible?   that's why the next xbox/ps4 have to have much better specs than wii u. if not wii u will get the same games as next xbox and ps4 which wouldn't be so good for them then with this lineup + nintendos great games. It doesn't work like that. MS and Sony cannot put out consoles so much more powerful than Wii U that It's unable to get ports, especially since Wii U will have a modern architecture which was the biggest reason Wii didn't get ports. Anything on PS4 and 720 will be port-able and scalable to Wii U.

ok then as an owner of a ps3 and 360 from day one but not a owner of a wii i won't need a next xbox or ps then and only buy a wii u. sure i will buy the next box and ps as well ayntime but only years after release to play few exclusives then if there are enough to justify a buy. for me it works exactly like this.

Jay520 said: @Superchunk I'll reply more later, but for now, I'll just leave this here: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4021577 It seems you have a tendency to insult those who don't agree with you...nice

lol, so you completely misquote me and then take me waaaay too personal.

That post was regarding hype before last E3 and was referring to WiiU's imminent presentation, not the 3DS... and while Nintendo's presentation definitely wasn't all it should have been, the pre hype for "real gamers", i.e. to me these are people who play all types of games regardless of hardware, should have been really high for a new system.

As for our current discussion.... don't be such a baby. Being called delusional isn't really an insult. I'm a sarcastic person and throughout my nearly 12,000 posts, I think most people would realize its just fun among friends and not personal. If things were reversed, I'd simply laugh at it and tell you why you're wrong. However, I think its pretty obvious that there’s a 99% chance of a PS4 launching by 2013 and to think otherwise at this point is simply being delusional.

Rumors of Sony prepping are out, Sony massively increased R&D, All of Sony's competitors are pretty much verified to launch by then, 3rd parties rumor to having early dev kits, big internal Sony studios rumored to be solely on next gen projects... it’s just too much to ignore.

 

crissindahouse said: padib said: @bolded. What if Nintendo's next ace card isn't NSMB et al., but to start putting serious effort into more mature games and leading with exclusives in that realm of entertainment? Do you think it's possible? Do you think that could be their surprise move next gen, or do you think, given their internal resources and current/upcoming business strategy, that it would be completely unfeasible? i think they will hope for more mature content from other developers  that's why the next xbox/ps4 have to have much better specs than wii u. if not wii u will get the same games as next xbox and ps4 which wouldn't be so good for them then with this lineup + nintendos great games. and maybe they will do a great horror game one time i don't think nintendo will make realistic racers/shooters but i really can think about a horror game from them don't know why.

... and what specs would those be?

Realistically, I wouldn't expect a significant enough difference between the Wii U and Sony or Microsoft's next generation consoles to prevent the Wii U from getting the bulk of third party multi-platform games.

The reason for this is quite simple, the games don't have to be equal in resolution, framerate, draw distance or detail to be released on both consoles. The average gamer would have difficulty telling the difference between a game playing at 720p@30fps and the same game playing at 1080p@60fps (even if there were minor graphical downgrades in detail and draw-distance to the 720p version) and yet the difference in processing power to produce the games at those performance levels is drastically different. For the vast majority of customers, if you had this difference in output resolutions and framerates the more powerful console could be 4 or 8 times as powerful and the perceived difference between the two systems would probably be smaller than the perceived difference between the PS2 and the Gamecube/Xbox; and if you consider that the Wii U is probably already at least 4 times as powerful as the HD consoles, Sony and Microsoft will not be able to release an affordable system that can outperform the Wii U by enough to prevent cross platform game development.

once again i agree. MS has the clear advantage heading into next yr. and i personally think that 2012 will be a war but right now i think its one they can win but not by much. releasing a new console with kinect being fairly new and the software for kinect just hitting its stride i seriously think theres no way in hell the xbox880 will be released in 2012.

i never saw kinect as more then a 3 yr. product anyway which would help 360 continue to sell in the seemingly endlessly large volumes it has in the U.S.

one other thing is software. before a new console is released we hear and know about it at least 2 yr's in advance if past console launches tells you anything about how the business and console releases work.

the systems software has to get you excited and i think MS would like to see some pre orders for there new console to see how the response to its announcement is.

annoucing xbox 1.5002 at the 2012 E3 would be the best way to start things off for the launch for both PS4 and xbox 724 while giving it a 2 yr. window before launch while making money off the hardware and software of PS360 at a marketable price point. remember we still have late adopters and cheap bastards that have yet to pick up a PS3 or Xbox360.

even though i said MS and Sony would or should give Xbox47653 and PS4 a 2 yr. launch window, i highly doubt that would happen or is even possible considering the lead Wiiu would likely already have. it seems MS and Sony are taking a wait and see approach for many reasons and Wiius launch and the 3DS situation (although it has outsold the original DS line up) are likely reasons for that approach to make sure the consumer is ready for next gen. sells are still impressive so i don't think theres much of a rush for a new hardware release.

i think this was a great topic even though i don't like some of you're reasoning for the topic. i've reviewed the op and give your thread a 8/10. you really didn't have a strong enough argument.