Jay520 said: superchunk said: Jay520 said: superchunk said: Jay520 said: @Superchunk I'll reply more later, but for now, I'll just leave this here: It seems you have a tendency to insult those who don't agree with you...nice ..[snip] .. don't be such a baby. [snip] Now, I'm a baby? Keep the insults coming. I thought you were a cool poster, but now you're really starting to show your true colors. I'm sorry Jay. My intention is not to insult anyone. I think you're taking it all a little to personal. Don't you're real life friends mess around with you and call each other names in a light hearted way? If not, then we clearly don't have similar circles. Real life friends? Are you trying to be ironic? That's it, I'm reporting you. I hope you get banned! Dude, I was kidding the whole time. My original post about the "real gamer" thing was just supposed to connect to your delusional statement. I was then going to use that connection and tease you about how some of the stuff you say can be quite random and meaningless. Then, I was going to jokingly exaggerate and say that nothing you say is meaningless. I thought you would have realised I was kidding when I obviously over-reacted to your "baby" comment, but I guess not. I think it's you that has no sense of humor, LOL

LOL

I was half wondering if you were messing with me at that point.

Good play, my friend, good play...

Sevengen said: a few people in here have posted that MS and Sony can't release consoles that much more powerful than the Wii-U for fear that they'll lose third party cross platform titles. That's complete nonsense. The only thing that's going to limit the technical abilities of the PS4 and Xbox(insert # here) is cost. Both companies have a massive, entrenched fanbase and could care less how powerful the Wii U is going to be. If they're able to squeeze in 20 times the performance of Nintendo's next offering and do so in a cost effective way, then that's exactly what they're going to do. Besides, that argument is completely contradicted by the Wii's success this generation. Developers ALWAYS want more power and more room to create what they envision. If both of those machines are significantly more capable than the Wii U, developers and gamers both will gravitate towards them. Developers for what they can achieve and gamers for what they can experience. I think Nintendo and the Wii U are actually in a bad position. MS still has plenty of room, time, and opportunity to keep the 360 relevant for another year 1/2-two years. I don't see them launching anything by next christmas.

I don't think anyone has said that ... In fact, I think I'm probably the one you're thinking of and my point was the opposite of that.

For decades games that have been released on the PC have targeted a range of systems that have very different capabilities, and there are some very well understood approaches to dealing with this problem. Most game engines have very sophisticated level of detail systems that are designed to ensure that system resources are available to be allocated to visual elements that users will notice. By tweeking the LOD threshold values you can dramatically reduce the complexity of a sceen and, as a result, enable two systems with very different capabilities play the same game at the same resolution/framerate. When you start adding resoultion and framerate (and features like 3D) into the equation, the processing power difference required to make it impossible to release a game across both platforms becomes very substantial.

To put a number to this difference, we will say that a system will need to be 8 times as powerful as the low end system to prevent cross platform game development. Now, based on the components that are rumored to be in the Wii U we can say that it (likely) is at least 4 times as powerful as the HD consoles and it is entirely possible (after customizations) that it is 8 times as powerful as either system. When we combine both estimates the successors to the HD consoles would have to be at least 32 times as powerful as the HD consoles to lock the Wii U out of cross platform game development. While we may be approaching a time where that is possible, it certainly won't be cheap ($500+ systems) and will require a massive jump in game development costs to take advantage of the processing power ...

 

Or to simplify and summarize my point ... Microsoft and Sony will have to balance the benefit of increased processing power against the negative of higher costs and, while I have no doubts both systems will be more powerful than the Wii U, I don't expect either manufacturer will be willing to accept the costs required to make a system as much more powerful as the Wii U as their fans seem to predict.

Jay520 said: Okay, with the chances of being called delusional, I'll still continue. My argument still makes sense. The PS didn't beat out the 360 by a "large number." I don't know how you came to that conclusion The XB is hugely popular in Americas, and it's on par with the PS3 in EMEAA. How far is the 360 behind in EMEAA? About a few million units, I think. So yeah, my point still stands, they're still on par with the PS Brand there and could do well if they wanted to launch head to head with the PS4. You must be using Japan when drawing your conclusion that the 360 is lagging by a "large number. " Honestly, I doubt they really care about that region, certainly not enough for it to impact their launch decisions. They should just focus all their resources on EMEAA and the Americas, or in other words, everywhere except Japan. As for the comment about them needing an advantage over the PS4 (assuming it is cheaper this time), I will repeat, they don't need an advantage. The XB is as strong as the PS brand, or at least, ON PAR as proven by my preceeding paragraphs. It just doesn't seem likely that they'll release in 2012. With Halo the Xbox 360 still having record breaking months this year posting huge profit with no price cut, and then considering what they could do next year - price cut, Halo 4, GTA 5 - the 360 will still be posting huge profits, it's not very feasible to release the 720 next year, when they still have a LOT of oppurtunity with the X360. With the Xb brand being on par with the PS brand, a 2013 is perfectly reasonable, probable. I've responded to the quotes in my previous post.

Sorry, I missed this post.

When I was referring to PS3's sales over 360, I was referring to aligned launches.

PS3 to 360.....
1st year: 8.95m to 7.9m (14mos, PS3 was $200 more expensive, 360 had no competition for 12mos, PS3 only 10mos in EMEAA, etc)
2nd year: 9.92m to 7.85m
3rd year: 13m to 10.89m
4th year: 14.39m to 10.14m

As you can see, if it weren't for 360's head start, it would be losing to the PS3 by about 10m units.... and I'd argue that if they launched the same 360 wouldn't have sealed up US support and therefore been FAR more behind than that.

To me that aligned first year says it all. PS3 outsold 360 by a million while it was not fully available in all markets, cost A LOT more, and with two other major competitors while 360 had none in its first year.

Fact is, MS NEEDS to lauch ahead of PS4 to ensure that they continue to build on their brand. Plus, you can't discount the negative feeling many will have due to RROD. MS is not a stupid company. They know the PS brand threat as well as the upgradability of Wii userbase to WiiU.

They will launch in 2012 with Nintendo.

Aligned sales aren't a very good indication of brand strength. A better method would be comparing both brands at the same time to get a representation for how people feel at the time.

Besides, since we're talking about the future, it's best to focus on current trends to get a better understanding for the future. Trends back in 2007 / 2008 don't even apply now, so they certainly can't predict the future accurately. It's best to see how trends are going now. Fact is, right now, and certainly next year, the XB brand is as big as the PS brand. Just look at it this year. It's still having tremendous weeks. Games like Modern Warfare 3, Skyrim, Battlefield 3, etc are all huge on the system. Kinect is selling butloads. One can easily make the argument that the Xbox brand is bigger than the PS brand.

Looking at sales, people clearly aren't still concerned with RRoD. And if they were, don't you think MS would want to take extra time on for the 720 so they can prevent it from happening again?

Like I said earlier, the X360 is currently do extremely well and is on track to have an excellent 2012 with a price and Huge games (Halo 4 & GTA5 specifically). It would be better for them to let the X360 have another big year and release the 720 the next year. Would it make sense for them to release the 720 next year with the 360 having such a huge year?

MS needed to release the 360 early simply because the PS brand was such a juggernaut compared to the XB brand. That's not the case TODAY. They are roughly on par with each other.

I'm willing to wager a bet that the next Xbox will NOT release in 2012.

Jay520 said: blah blah blah blah... turd. I'm willing to wager a bet that the next Xbox will NOT release in 2012.

What's your terms?

Only condition I have is I won't change my profile pic. Anything else site related I'm willing to toss in the pot.

superchunk said: Jay520 said: blah blah blah blah... turd. I'm willing to wager a bet that the next Xbox will NOT release in 2012. What's your terms? Only condition I have is I won't change my profile pic. Anything else site related I'm willing to toss in the pot.

The terms: I bet that the Next Generation Xbox console will not release within the year of 2012, under any circumstances. You bet that it will release in 2012. Whoever loses has to put this into his signature:

"I lost a bet to [winner]. He correctly predicted that [winning terms]. I should have known that [winner] was an excellent predictor, I was foolish to bet against him."

EDIT: Also, the loser must leave the quote in their sig for a year starting the moment of a release confirmation (or starting in 2013 if no confirmation)

Jay520 said: superchunk said: Jay520 said: blah blah blah blah... turd. I'm willing to wager a bet that the next Xbox will NOT release in 2012. What's your terms? Only condition I have is I won't change my profile pic. Anything else site related I'm willing to toss in the pot. The terms: I bet that the Next Generation Xbox console will not release within the year of 2012, under any circumstances. You bet that it will release in 2012. Whoever loses has to put this into his signature: "I lost a bet to [winner]. He correctly predicted that [winning terms]. I should have known that [winner] was an excellent predictor, I was foolish to bet against him." EDIT: Also, the loser must leave the quote in their sig for the entire year of 2013.

Agreed. Can we agree that if E32012 MS makes a statement that obviously shows one of us as the winner, we can call the bet early?

Honestly I think the biggest sign that the Nextbox is launching in 2013 and not 2012 is Halo 4. If MS knew that the Nextbox was this close to being released they would have FOR SURE made Halo 4 a launch title for the console.

superchunk said: Jay520 said: superchunk said: Jay520 said: blah blah blah blah... turd. I'm willing to wager a bet that the next Xbox will NOT release in 2012. What's your terms? Only condition I have is I won't change my profile pic. Anything else site related I'm willing to toss in the pot. The terms: I bet that the Next Generation Xbox console will not release within the year of 2012, under any circumstances. You bet that it will release in 2012. Whoever loses has to put this into his signature: "I lost a bet to [winner]. He correctly predicted that [winning terms]. I should have known that [winner] was an excellent predictor, I was foolish to bet against him." EDIT: Also, the loser must leave the quote in their sig for exactly one year after a release confirmation.(or when 2013 begins). Agreed. Can we agree that if E32012 MS makes a statement that obviously shows one of us as the winner, we can call the bet early?

Sure, the main thing is leaving the quote in your sig for one year starting from the moment the release is confirmed or when 2013 begins. I edited my above post in this pyramid to alter the terms, AGREED?

Jay520 said: superchunk said: Jay520 said: superchunk said: Jay520 said: blah blah blah blah... turd. I'm willing to wager a bet that the next Xbox will NOT release in 2012. What's your terms? Only condition I have is I won't change my profile pic. Anything else site related I'm willing to toss in the pot. The terms: I bet that the Next Generation Xbox console will not release within the year of 2012, under any circumstances. You bet that it will release in 2012. Whoever loses has to put this into his signature: "I lost a bet to [winner]. He correctly predicted that [winning terms]. I should have known that [winner] was an excellent predictor, I was foolish to bet against him." EDIT: Also, the loser must leave the quote in their sig for exactly one year after a release confirmation.(or when 2013 begins). Agreed. Can we agree that if E32012 MS makes a statement that obviously shows one of us as the winner, we can call the bet early? Sure, the main thing is leaving the quote in your sig for one year starting from the moment the release is confirmed or when 2013 begins. I edited my above post in this pyramid to alter the terms, AGREED?

AGREED.