firelink said:
|
*facepalm*
firelink said:
|
*facepalm*
Anecdotally, I know there are people in America who are buying PS3 almost on impulse when they see
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
Biggest bump was for the Wii, despite the fact ot had nothing going for it?
Dem crazy holidays...
Mordred11 said:
*facepalm* |
Since you want an explanation so much...
In September, the PS3 got a couple of things:
Price cut
Resistance 3
Madden
FIFA
Given a price cut and 3 kind of big releases within the span of 28 days, I assume that:
1) A lot of PS3's sales for September came within a few days of each of these events
2) Given those PS3 sales were exceptionally higher than normal, it raised the weekly average from about 50k to 75k.
Now, given this information, and the fact that, in America, the PS3 has had very few big releases since then, how does it make any sense that the PS3 would go up? Part of the way VGChartz tracks data is by using trends. The PS3 sold so and so weekly last year, the PS3 sold so and so weekly last month, run the numbers, do math, blah blah, get information from retailers, combine data, extrapolate, have a result. Why do you think the 3DS was overtracked by 100k in September? Because in August, the price cut raised the weekly average by a TON. VGChartz calculated that information into their data, and it caused the 3DS to be over by 10-20k every single week in NA.
It is the same exact situation here. PS3 is in the same exact position that the 3DS was in last month. I expect overtracking, because an increase in sales for any system in October (a usually dry month) outside of a big software debut is unrealistic.
The only system that should be rising is the 360. The 360 is coming off of a big release in Forza, and it always does well in America. No other system has any reason to go up.
Oh, and I went all the way back to 2008 for October, comparing NPD to VGChartz. VG overtracked the PS3 every single time in all 3 instances (2008, 2009, 2010).
Are those numbers already adjusted for NPD weekly levels ? Or not yet? ;)
PROUD MEMBER OF THE PSP RPG FAN CLUB
| firelink said:
In September, the PS3 got a couple of things: Price cut Resistance 3 Madden FIFA
Given a price cut and 3 kind of big releases within the span of 28 days, I assume that: 1) A lot of PS3's sales for September came within a few days of each of these events 2) Given those PS3 sales were exceptionally higher than normal, it raised the weekly average from about 50k to 75k.
Now, given this information, and the fact that, in America, the PS3 has had very few big releases since then, how does it make any sense that the PS3 would go up? Part of the way VGChartz tracks data is by using trends. The PS3 sold so and so weekly last year, the PS3 sold so and so weekly last month, run the numbers, do math, blah blah, get information from retailers, combine data, extrapolate, have a result. Why do you think the 3DS was overtracked by 100k in September? Because in August, the price cut raised the weekly average by a TON. VGChartz calculated that information into their data, and it caused the 3DS to be over by 10-20k every single week in NA. It is the same exact situation here. PS3 is in the same exact position that the 3DS was in last month. I expect overtracking, because an increase in sales for any system in October (a usually dry month) outside of a big software debut is unrealistic. The only system that should be rising is the 360. The 360 is coming off of a big release in Forza, and it always does well in America. No other system has any reason to go up. Oh, and I went all the way back to 2008 for October, comparing NPD to VGChartz. VG overtracked the PS3 every single time in all 3 instances (2008, 2009, 2010). |
Since when is 900k copies (Arkham City) in a week a small debut?
| Zlejedi said: Are those numbers already adjusted for NPD weekly levels ? Or not yet? ;) |
After NPD the first batch of adjustments happened
.
Mordred11 said:
Since when is 900k copies (Arkham City) in a week a small debut? |
Arkham City only sold 500k in America, the territory I am talking about.
And it is my best guess that a game like Arkham City is not capable of pushing hardware. We'll see when NPD comes around, but I think VG is going to be being very generous to the PS3 this month because of how much they undertracked it last month.
firelink said:
Arkham City only sold 500k in America, the territory I am talking about. And it is my best guess that a game like Arkham City is not capable of pushing hardware. We'll see when NPD comes around, but I think VG is going to be being very generous to the PS3 this month because of how much they undertracked it last month. |
So you're saying the 360 should be rising instead because of Forza 4,which opened with 235k?That's half of what Arkham City opened with.
Yes,the 360 version of Arkham City opened with similar numbers,but you have to take into account the higher userbase in America for the 360.
Come back when you actually want to prove something,instead of obviously trying to troll the PS3. You first said that it's overtracked,and then you looked for info and came back a day later,because you had to save your face. Nice try.
Mordred11 said:
So you're saying the 360 should be rising instead because of Forza 4,which opened with 235k?That's half of what Arkham City opened with. Yes,the 360 version of Arkham City opened with similar numbers,but you have to take into account the higher userbase in America for the 360. Come back when you actually want to prove something,instead of obviously trying to troll the PS3. You first said that it's overtracked,and then you looked for info and came back a day later,because you had to save your face. Nice try. |
Sales numbers do not mean anything when it comes to pushing hardware.
General rule of thumb: First party drives the install base, third party profits.
It is the job of first party games like Zelda, Pokemon, Halo, Forza, GT5, Uncharted, to drive and increase the install base. Then third parties come in and rack up big numbers because of that. Of course there are exceptions (sports games) though.
I think Forza can push numbers, however, it is hard to tell. Forza 3 and 2 both came out at the end of the month, with the month after (containing a full month of Forza sales) going up and with Forza having modest sales (<200k). There also being no other major releases.
And actually, I came back because I got a message saying I have been flagged for trolling. I do not troll. I make educated guesses based on what I already know and see, I just suck at explaining.