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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ode to John Lucas the visionary

Faxanadu on 05 January 2008
Sqrl said:

Again I want to be clear, the earliest prediction we know of is NOT a range of 4 million. It is a prediction of exactly 20m by the end of the year.

 

With that said, yes he deserves credit for this prediction but I don't think that anyone should be building a shrine or anything of the sort.

 

Why is it so hard for people to grasp the concept of moderation? Why must it be love or hate with JL? Why can't it just be "respect".


Sqrl, cmon. Do you really think we are building shrines? This is fun, lets just have some fun and then move on. 



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Sqrl on 05 January 2008
Faxanadu said:
Sqrl said:

Again I want to be clear, the earliest prediction we know of is NOT a range of 4 million. It is a prediction of exactly 20m by the end of the year.

 

With that said, yes he deserves credit for this prediction but I don't think that anyone should be building a shrine or anything of the sort.

 

Why is it so hard for people to grasp the concept of moderation? Why must it be love or hate with JL? Why can't it just be "respect".


Sqrl, cmon. Do you really think we are building shrines? This is fun, lets just have some fun and then move on.


I'm all for doing it in fun, I have no problems with that.  But not everybody is =P Particularly the haters truly hate, but there are also some folks who are a little too into it.



To Each Man, Responsibility
tabsina on 05 January 2008

I found the "360 will be outsold by July" absolutely crazy, then as it came so close, i found the following prediction (20 mil by end of 07) as an attempt of JL to just go nuts because of his nearness with the previous prediction...

Now with the 60mil prediction for next year, i think that is more nuts than both those first predictions put together.. but for some odd reason, i'm almost expecting it to happen

Good predictions JL, i look forward to more 'correct insanity' this year



Punisher on 05 January 2008

Hehee, congrats Johnny my boy you were right... (with less than 5% margin of error). Hopefully you will be as much right with your prediction for end of '08 numbers.



Nothing's cheaper than something free.

F1 vs FOTA, when too much power is in couple peoples hands.

---------------------------------------------------------------

windbane on 06 January 2008

You can see in his sig that his some of his other predictions did not come close.  This one did, but 24 million certainly did not happen and he technically did not make the mark of 20 million judging by his own criteria.

So 60 million by next year, huh?  I suppose by then Wii will have taken over the world... 



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Avinash_Tyagi on 06 January 2008
windbane said:

You can see in his sig that his some of his other predictions did not come close.  This one did, but 24 million certainly did not happen and he technically did not make the mark of 20 million judging by his own criteria.

So 60 million by next year, huh?  I suppose by then Wii will have taken over the world... 


 Considering he made this prediction almost a year ago, and came really close (only falling short because of Nintendo being unable to ship enough), i'd say he did a pretty good job, much better than guys like Pachter



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

windbane on 06 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
windbane said:

You can see in his sig that his some of his other predictions did not come close. This one did, but 24 million certainly did not happen and he technically did not make the mark of 20 million judging by his own criteria.

So 60 million by next year, huh? I suppose by then Wii will have taken over the world...


Considering he made this prediction almost a year ago, and came really close (only falling short because of Nintendo being unable to ship enough), i'd say he did a pretty good job, much better than guys like Pachter


Okay, so 1 right out of how many absurd predictions?  Pachter gets one right rarely, too. 



WEWdeadeye on 06 January 2008

I still think it is funny how all the Wii fanboys jock JL soooo HARD. Jesus, get off his nuts, you people are crazy. I give him credit for his 20m prediction, but even a broken clock is right twice a day! The other recent predictions have turned out to be disasters! I just understand how why you guys hold him in such high regards. He got one prediction right, which no one thought had a chance of happening. Pachter has a similar rate of efficiency, but you guys all seem to blast him!



Currently Playing:

PS4 - Killzone:SF and Assasins Creed 4

 

XBox One: BF4, CoD:Ghosts, Dead Rising 3, Forza 5

 

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leo-j on 06 January 2008

John lucas was WRONG



 

mM
xbebop on 06 January 2008
leo-j said:
John lucas was WRONG

 This isn't a mathematics test, Leo-j. No prediction is ever correct; at least not one that calls for specific details. Nobody expected the Wii to get to 20,000,000 this year when JL did, and he got within 550,000 of his goal out of 20,000,000. That's pretty good as far as predicting a market goes. 

I'm far more of a realist than John Lucas is, but I give him credit for A) having balls and B) having foresight that Elrond would be jealous of.