@DMeisterJ and others.

December is a 5 week reporting period. VGChartz and every other reporting agency will not in 2007 at Dec 31, but end 2007 on Jan 5/6. So even if VGChartz is over on Japans numbers last week, Wii will still break 20m for 2007, just as PS3 will break 9m. (2m higher than 360's first year)

March 14th 2007 (3/14/07)

relevant portion (link):

You'll be seeing me on these boards, trust me. Just wait and see what the numbers say to see if I'm full of hot air or some other type of 'substance'. I call it for July. That's when we'll see Wii catch the 360. I call it for 20 million at Dec 31, 2007. That's the worldwide tally of sales for Wii.
We'll just have to see if I'm right.
I don't play the caution game when I see a sure thing.
I don't like hedging bets. I'm very confident in my predictions.

John Lucas

@superchunk, 

I know JL had predictions about the Wii being a massive success in mid-'06 on other sites but I don't know if he had 20m predictions in '06. 

congrats to JL. essentially he's only a week or two off. that's absolutely incredible. and unlike most of us, he has the resolution to repeatedly make his case, and never swayed.

JL is more than predicting. it's his flair. that's why he's a rock star and nobody else on this forum comes close to it.

except kwaad, interestingly.

To those of you saying that he is wrong since its not at 20 million but at 19.5 million: get a life.

seriously, saying he was wrong because of such a small margin, especilly cause everyone always claiming he was a freak and out of his mind, I now find this: yes, but it missed by

 agreed.  JL's 60 million prediction is also insane... but if it ends at around 55 million that's already a victory for JL.  even anything above 50 million would be a victory, but if it's 55 million that to me is an outright victory.

First, you're wrong: his prediction is well within the margin of error. I think in this particular case, and the 20 million unit number being reiterated by him for nearly a year now, we can happily admit that John Lucas was right and no one predicted 20 million as early as he did or was as firm about it as he was.

This is a John Lucas victory thread.  He got it right in the face of nearly everyone here, made very bold predictions, and was right on.  Congratulations to John Lucas: he had earlier and more accurate predictions than any professional Patcher I've ever, EVER seen.

So if he misses his low mark again it's a victory for him? I admit that his predictions are ballsy and this time, he came damned close. It should also be noted that this was also one of his more sane predictions and other predictions he has made have gone down in fiery infernos.

Either way, "visionary" is a bit over the top, don't you think? Pachter probably has the same batting average as JL. 

I will go on the record right now as saying that if the Wii breaks 55m in '08 I will give JL lots of credit for his prediction...he will still be wrong imo, but he deserves credit since I don't see how it is even flippin possible for it to hit 50m....but if it breaks 57m?? well I say just buy the man a throne and be done with it.

As for the not possible thing...they need to produce, ship, and sell an average of 2.5m per month to break 50m...if they want to hit 60m they need to hit 3.33m per month.

edit: My prediction league number is 41.2m iirc and even at that rate they need to do a bit more than 1.8m per month on average..which by the way you will note means that the summer months should average around 1.2-1.3m and about 8.68m in Nov/Dec (should be tough).

For 50m we should see  ~1.83m during the year and then about 12.2m in Nov/Dec.

For 60m we should see  ~2.43m during the year and then about ~16.2m in Nov/Dec.

Right now it isn't clear that Lucas was wrong at all. VGC numbers have a margin of error, of course, and in October the Wii numbers were adjusted by about 700,000 units. It is possible a similar adjustment may need to happen for the December 31 data.

And it is obvious that Nintendo will sell more on December 30th and 31st: don't forget that December 30th was a Sunday where Nintendo makes most of its weekly sales.

I wouldn't consider Lucas and I wouldn't consider it a victory for him unless the numbers are so close that there is a very good chance he was right on. Like they are right now.

I fixed it for you.  Since most stores release their Wii supply on Sundays and the Wii seems to get the majority of its weekly sales that day.

 I'm not saying he is wrong about the 20m prediction =P