Ode to John Lucas the visionary

[Sqrl]

TheBigFatJ said:

Sqrl said:

I will go on the record right now as saying that if the Wii breaks 55m in '08 I will give JL lots of credit for his prediction...he will still be wrong imo, but he deserves credit since I don't see how it is even flippin possible for it to hit 50m....but if it breaks 57m?? well I say just buy the man a throne and be done with it.

As for the not possible thing...they need to produce, ship, and sell an average of 2.5m per month to break 50m...if they want to hit 60m they need to hit 3.33m per month.

Right now it isn't clear that Lucas was wrong at all. VGC numbers have a margin of error, of course, and in October the Wii numbers were adjusted by about 700,000 units. It is possible a similar adjustment may need to happen for the December 31 data.

And it is obvious that Nintendo will sell more on December 30th and 31st: don't forget that December 30th was a Sunday where Nintendo makes most of its weekly sales.

I wouldn't consider Lucas and I wouldn't consider it a victory for him unless the numbers are so close that there is a very good chance he was right on. Like they are right now.

Just one number: 19.54 million (and counting a Sunday to go) WW Wii sales at the end of 2007.

I fixed it for you. Since most stores release their Wii supply on Sundays and the Wii seems to get the majority of its weekly sales that day.

 

 I'm not saying he is wrong about the 20m prediction =P