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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ode to John Lucas the visionary

jimbo on 05 January 2008
smellygoat said:
John Lucas ignores things like supply constrain when predicting. So he earns alot of animosity for his troubles (especially thanks to all the JL lovers).

What JL does do when he predicts is he predicts the DEMAND for the product. And he predicts the demand fantastically, far better than I ever could. So he gets my respect for that.

I dont hold him resposible for nintendos inability to meet demand.

Couldn't have said it better myself great job John! I have to admit Ididn't think they would even hit 19 million.

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revolutions on 05 January 2008

Congratz, JL :)



WiiFit will be 2008 #1 selling game in NORTH AMERICA!  
End of '08 Predictions: Wii - 48m X360 - 25m  PS3 - 19m
Wii monthly NA sales will top 400k every month in '08. *Jan sales ruined it. Grrrr!*
WiiFit will top 1m in sales in its first month of release in North America.
MGS4 will NOT be released in '08. *Darn it!* FF13 will NOT be released in '08.
Rockband Wii will top 600k in first month sales in North America.
WiiFit will pass the PS3 WW sales by Xmas '09.

grandmaster192 on 05 January 2008

I wish JL was a PS3 fan instead. That guy is awesome!



cringer8 on 05 January 2008

Well, JL gets my respect for understanding the longevity of Wii demand. However, his outlandish Wii Fit predictions make me doubt his credibility.

I do believe he is close with his 60 million end of '08. But (just like my signature suggests), I think it will be closer to 50 million.



My End of 2008 Hardware Predictions (console only):

Wii : 50 million

360: 28 million

PS3: 24 million

These predictions were made on January 3rd and won't be revised

LINK

grandmaster192 on 05 January 2008

I think John was just joking about the Wii-fit thing.



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omgwtfbbq on 05 January 2008

I think the easiest and most accurate way to discover whether Nintendo sold 20 million consoles by the end of 2007 is quite simple. Wait for their financial report. I know that it's sold to retailers and not consumers, but I don't think the difference will be that much. And the added advantage is it goes to December 31



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

Faxanadu on 05 January 2008
johnlucas said:

Hi guys!

Waiting on next week to get the full story of the ticker tape. Nintendo fulfilled my worst case scenario ONLY selling 20 million on end of 2007. And it seems it took every last second of 2007 to pull it off.

Boy supply was harsh this year for Wii! Next year should be better though.

Oh...ghosts from the past

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=857

[March 22, 2007, 01:27] mrstickball said:

Johnlucas is becoming the Washimul of the Wii world.

Like Erik said, for the Wii to outsell the 360 by July, it'd have to nearly TRIPLE it's current sales to do that - virtually impossible (Nintendo would litterally have to cut off every shipment to Japan and Europe and send them to the US until July to do that).

Stupid stupid stupid. Your predictions will easily fail in the face of reality. I am SURE if Nintendo could magically conjour up 14 million more systems, a good bit might sell. However, they can't. Thats why Nintendo won't sell anywhere near the 20m you think they will.

I guess this is why I don't see you on the top 20 list for the predictions league?

Thanks everybody! The love I get here is heartwarming. I really appreciate all of it.

John Lucas


Great you dropped by. Big respect to your prediction. And the quote you gave us from Mr. Stick just taught me one thing: Never anger JL with nasty comments on his predictions, since he is evil and will try to embarass you later on in front of the entire VGChartz community.

But man, Mr Sticks reply made me laugh. Talk about loosing credibility.



Any message from Faxanadu is written in good faith but shall neither be binding nor construed as constituting a commitment by Faxanadu except where provided for in a written agreement signed by an authorized representative of Faxanadu. This message is intended for the use of the forum members only.

The views expressed here may be personal and/or offensive and are not necessarily the views of Faxanadu.

Faxanadu on 05 January 2008
omgwtfbbq said:
I think the easiest and most accurate way to discover whether Nintendo sold 20 million consoles by the end of 2007 is quite simple. Wait for their financial report. I know that it's sold to retailers and not consumers, but I don't think the difference will be that much. And the added advantage is it goes to December 31

Does that include the consoles sold by that strange "voucher" system in the US in some stores? 



Any message from Faxanadu is written in good faith but shall neither be binding nor construed as constituting a commitment by Faxanadu except where provided for in a written agreement signed by an authorized representative of Faxanadu. This message is intended for the use of the forum members only.

The views expressed here may be personal and/or offensive and are not necessarily the views of Faxanadu.

gamingdevil on 05 January 2008

Ah come on we all know he is a filthy rich guy who just bought most of them to show that he got close hehe




Sqrl on 05 January 2008

Again I want to be clear, the earliest prediction we know of is NOT a range of 4 million. It is a prediction of exactly 20m by the end of the year.

 

With that said, yes he deserves credit for this prediction but I don't think that anyone should be building a shrine or anything of the sort.

 

Why is it so hard for people to grasp the concept of moderation? Why must it be love or hate with JL? Why can't it just be "respect". I think even JL will admit its not healthy for either extreme.

PS - I think MrStickBall owes a visit to the "Crow Eating" thread =P 
To Each Man, Responsibility