I thought it might do, but now...I'm not so certain. The 3DS is going very strongly, and the market it needs to sell well in (Japan), the 3DS will have a Monster Hunter game and another in the pipeline, and an entire holiday advantage (I mean, why launch with only 1 week left?).

It will have a nice cosy start, much like the 3DS', but it will have the same problem- not distinguishing between the PSP and itself. There just isn't enough difference for the average person to tell.

So, unless Sony puts a helluvalot of cash behind it (which I doubt), it'll be a rinse-repeat of this generation. I hope otherwise, but so far, it looks set for that. And a couple strong lauch games won't change that (remember how Nintendo said they'd be 70+ developers on the 3DS in the first 6 months? Things get delayed, cut or even cancelled. It happens. I see the same thing happening to the Vita).

My guess? It'll sell around 6-7mil Year 1 (not including 2011) WW. And the 3DS will sell 12mil.

IMO, 3DS will sell double the PSV lifetime.

lol what storm........the 12 yr old's.....are coming *shivers*

The price drop has had a big effect on 3DS and the games have just started to come.

It looks like the 3DS already own Japan and it will be alone this christmas in both Europe and USA..

3DS has reached 7 millions solds with this week numbers. It should be around 11-12 millions at the end of the year, wich would be a great first year and would give it an almost unclosable lead.

3Ds at 10 mil before Vita will be out is a too big gap!

The price of the Vita cards is not a problem, its never been a problem before with other consoles.

This is the 3DS storm I was talking about.

The release of Mario 3D and Mario Kart coupled with the pricedrop has allowed the 3DS to sell a crazy amount of units. The 3DS is breaking completely the 10 millions mark this week, and will be very close to 11 millions.

Vita will release only in Japan this year, where the 3DS is flying above everything else with the realese of Monster Hunter 3G as well.

At the end of the year the gap could be already 12 millions and never such a big cap has been closed. The 3DS line up for 2012 is also strong. I don't think Vita can't compete after this show of strenghts by 3DS.

In a way Sony might even be relieved to see the 3DS do well, because it means the portable gaming industry isn't suddenly going smartphone only. And the two devices are very different again, so I think the market split should be similar to DS/PSP. Which is something Sony will be happy with. Their first handheld sold +70m units - that's an incredible success!

Really, I don't see any big differences between the DS/PSP gen and the 3DS/Vita gen.
DS/3DS: dated specs, quirky, cheaper, kid-friendly, pure gaming device, unique novelty feature
PSP/Vita: cutting edge, slick, more expensive, adolescent-oriented, strong multimedia features, more conventional

And the libraries are shaping up to be similar as well. I mean, of course they are! Sony has built a reputation for certain games, and that's what their followers expect by now. It's the Playstation flavor: Impressive blockbuster movie-like action games, realistic racing games, violent shooters. Just as the Nintendo flavor is not going to change. Both camps are pretty much trapped in their respective corners: Nintendo fails to get violent 3rd party games and gamers for their systems, and Sony fails to make something of equally universal appeal as Mario.

As usual, Vita will had a great launch. But for the next few month, 3ds will lead the market. And this week 3DS already had PSP superstar MH3G, in Japan It was like Sony had Pokemon series.
Just like PS3 Fat, Sony is planing for a long term sales for Vita. And I'm sure one day there is Vita "slim" with a build in memory and cheaper price.

Nintendo is working on that: For example the 3DS gets Resident Evil games, the Wii U get a mass of "violent" third party games. Sony seems not to have anything to oppose that.