i know one thing is for certain to the general public and even most of you on this website MGS4 is a make or break game for sony... look at all the hoopla one hoax rumor can do.. not once not twice but at least ten times in the past year...

This does no good whatsoever. Even if it is TRUE, there are enough reasons for 360 fans to have suspicion.

1. Plenty of game publishers have insisted that title X was "exclusive" with no plan to ever go to another platform... until the contract ran out.

2. PS3 software is still underperforming. MGS4 is almost certainly a budget buster. Konami will almost certainly have to sell an above average number of copies (over 500,000) just to break even. While they are planning on success, if sales prove disappointing, they may have little choice but to (reluctantly) go MP to make some money.

In each case, Konami would continue to say what they are saying now, so the only way to disprove the MSG360 rumor is to let time pass. If MGS360 has not been announced 12 months after the PS3 release, then I suspect most will finally be forced to give it up.

Unless Sony has a contract, I would expect MGS4 to be released on Xbox360 after the ps3 version causes Konami to have devastating loses. 

FF64 comes to mind, though of course Square bailed before it was released due to cartridges.   Otherwise, what major exclusives did Square or Konami plan for a losing console?  Unlike Capcom they both just rode the Playstation train for the most part so other than FF64 they weren't in a situation like they are today and Capcom was with RE4.  Businesses are businesses and most likely will react similarly to a similar situation. 

I don't care what the rumors say, I'll believe there will be a 360 MGS4 until this generation is over for simple business reasons.  I expect Konami will look at MGS2 selling 5.6 million on the PS2, then MGS3 4 million on the PS2, and realize a game whose total cost will be over $50 million (with marketing) and that needs to make huge profits to cover general expenses/failed games, requires a bigger user base than 15 or so million. 

I don't think it's so much business culture that caused Capcom to port RE4 to the PS2 but the reality that a game that Capcom spent so much time and money on needed to sell more than 1.7 million copies.  That's a game that had to have cost well below half of what MGS4 is costing Konami.  Despite selling some 3.6 million copies Capcom still wasn't happy which is one of the major reasons it was ported to the Wii as well.  So I highly doubt the sales that the PS3 can generate will be enough to satisfy Konami.

Then again for simple business reasons I keep expecting 3rd parties to take the Wii seriously, so maybe there is general lack of business sense in the video game industry which is why so many companies go out of business.

This part at least is very true.

The only problem for Konami is that Japan are not going to buy a 360 version, ever. Europe will buy the PS3 version of the game and that is MGS series strongest region. That just leaves the US, how much do you expect a 360 version to sell in the US 12-15mths after the PS3 version has been available?

Konami have made their bed with MGS4 already. A 360 port will not help them that much unless it is released with the PS3 version or not long after but definitely in 2008. Fall 09 MGS4 for 360 will do nothing for Konami and just be consilation for 360 fans.

Final Fantasy XIII is a similar situation. These games are VERY front loaded, year timed-exclusive is just too much and a 360 version of either will not recover costs. Either Konami/S-E make profit on the PS3 versions of the game or they won't be making profit. It's simple as that. Remember too that Sony have strong relationship with Komani/Square Enix and they are the closest 3rd parties to Sony. Sony and Capcom are not that close and Resident Evil jumping to Gamecube following with Mikami insulting the PS2 and Sony didn't help much either.

Konami was enthusiastically hoping for a million units sold on day one, which seems unreasonable considering no game has done this on the PS3 yet. But take into account the higher user base by the time MGS4 is released (at least 10 million). Consider no game has been as big a release for the PS3 as MGS4, not simply due to hype, but due to a proven franchise with an established track record for million(s) sales. Of course, KZ2 could still be the first true killer app for the PS3, but unless/until it delivers, consider MGS4 to be the first.

Take into account the 150-300 hardware units the PS3 should move which will be purchased with the game.

However, I believe the "million on day one" quote was given to estimate how many copies they'd have to sell to effectively recoup development costs without having to rely upon residual sales throughout the life cycle of the PS3.

The $50 million development estimate seems high considering that Halo 3 cost $30 million to develop with an additional $10 million spent on marketing. That wasn't just for TV ad time, but for Game Fuel/Mountain Dew tie ins, Game Fuel/Halo store promo materials, media events/parties, Halo schwag, etc. And Microsoft, not Bungie was financially responsible for promo costs since they were using it to move hardware and promote sales of the 360.

I seriously doubt Konami will be spending $10 million to promote MGS4. If there is an aggressive marketing campaign to be made, it will be handled by SCE as MGS4 is one of their key killer apps for 2008.

The issue of a 360 port is dependent largely upon how far off Konami is from their sales target. Meaning, if they don't sell 1 million on day one, they'll use that to justify releasing a 360 port.

Whether they officially announce it before or after the PS3 release is the important detail. Before/during will definitely have a detrimental effect on sales for the PS3. If they hold off on the announcement until after sales subside, or indefinitely IF it sells beyond anyone's wildest estimate, Sony loses little (residual sales) or nothing by the loss of MGS4 as an exclusive.

On one side, thousands of random internet sites claim MGS4 is coming to the 360.  On the other, Konami claims it isn't.
So perhaps Konami is just misinformed?

Fair enough. It's like trusting Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo regards no price cut statements. It's all about the money. Even if Konami is working on MGS4 for X360 right now they won't confirm it. This alone is enough. They want to wring out as many cash from PS3 as possible. More PS3 bundles Sony sell more happy Konami will be. Obviously they have some agreement.

Any rumour about MGS4 is meaningless because one year is more than enough to secure PS3 position.

BTW anyone excited about Lost Planet port?