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Gaming - No mgs4 for xbox360 - View Post

greenmedic88 on 03 January 2008
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Konami was enthusiastically hoping for a million units sold on day one, which seems unreasonable considering no game has done this on the PS3 yet. But take into account the higher user base by the time MGS4 is released (at least 10 million). Consider no game has been as big a release for the PS3 as MGS4, not simply due to hype, but due to a proven franchise with an established track record for million(s) sales. Of course, KZ2 could still be the first true killer app for the PS3, but unless/until it delivers, consider MGS4 to be the first.

Take into account the 150-300 hardware units the PS3 should move which will be purchased with the game.

However, I believe the "million on day one" quote was given to estimate how many copies they'd have to sell to effectively recoup development costs without having to rely upon residual sales throughout the life cycle of the PS3.

The $50 million development estimate seems high considering that Halo 3 cost $30 million to develop with an additional $10 million spent on marketing. That wasn't just for TV ad time, but for Game Fuel/Mountain Dew tie ins, Game Fuel/Halo store promo materials, media events/parties, Halo schwag, etc. And Microsoft, not Bungie was financially responsible for promo costs since they were using it to move hardware and promote sales of the 360.

I seriously doubt Konami will be spending $10 million to promote MGS4. If there is an aggressive marketing campaign to be made, it will be handled by SCE as MGS4 is one of their key killer apps for 2008.

The issue of a 360 port is dependent largely upon how far off Konami is from their sales target. Meaning, if they don't sell 1 million on day one, they'll use that to justify releasing a 360 port.

Whether they officially announce it before or after the PS3 release is the important detail. Before/during will definitely have a detrimental effect on sales for the PS3. If they hold off on the announcement until after sales subside, or indefinitely IF it sells beyond anyone's wildest estimate, Sony loses little (residual sales) or nothing by the loss of MGS4 as an exclusive.