I voted for easily under the assumption that a $100 price cut is coming. Those limited edition consoles getting price points already makes me wonder if that will happen though. I can say kinect will be big this xmas with or without a price cut.

Nope they will miss it slightly unless they make massive price drop.

If they drop the price (and I'd expect them to do this as I expect Sony to cut the PS3's price this year - unless they want to be more than 3m short of their fiscal year forecast) they could make it. Kinect boosted sales massively last year, I doubt they are gonna match that without a price cut. The Halo remake will be a huge seller but it won't be a huge system seller and there's nothing else on the horizon that could math the Kinect impact, really.

So yeah, it all comes down to the price. A $149 Arcade / $199 HDD model combination sounds good.

Close, but it will just miss because new hardware will take over.

I voted no
Kinect won't be as big as last year
forza and gears won't be that big for boosting the 360 after all it's the second forza game and the third gear on the console
and I don't get why everyone expect the star wars game to be huge, I have yet to see why it would do so, also expect a 50$ price cut but it wont be enough

Although i hope it does cos im in no hurry to see a new gen, I voted No, i just dont think it has enough software this year, and i don tthink a $50 price cut will be enough, If it was $100 then thats another story, but i dont see a cut that big. Also Kinect just didnt have the impact in EU that it did in the states, i dont think the US region can do this on there own, MS need a compelling reason to increase sales in the EU.

I voted close but will miss, but now I'm not sure. It depends on your definition of close and MS's movements. If they cut the X360 and Kinect's price by $50 each it will miss by a few hundred k IMO. Otherwise not close.

Hey Kowen. In your OP you say that 360 can sell 3.5% behind for the remainder of the year (from the start date of the table). Having a column that tracks the overall % behind (opposed to the weekly % behind) 2010 would help give people an impression of how things are tracking. Or maybe in the existing over/under columns you could include the % figure in parentheses.

third forza game actually.

Theyve gone eight months without a AAA exclusive. Seriously, if it isnt being saved by Kinect I cannot tell you whats doing it.