If they drop the price (and I'd expect them to do this as I expect Sony to cut the PS3's price this year - unless they want to be more than 3m short of their fiscal year forecast) they could make it. Kinect boosted sales massively last year, I doubt they are gonna match that without a price cut. The Halo remake will be a huge seller but it won't be a huge system seller and there's nothing else on the horizon that could math the Kinect impact, really.
So yeah, it all comes down to the price. A $149 Arcade / $199 HDD model combination sounds good.