Probably 50-60 million.

It won't get nearly the hype/media attention the Wii got.

70 Million...

In the 20-200 million range.

I figure at least a couple of units.

400 million

I see it ending up similar to the dropoff from NES to SNES. Since I think Wii will end up with around 110 million, I'd guess about 70-75 million for Wii U.

They will alienate much of their mass market audience they captured with Wii, but some of this will be offset by the stronger third party support and more support by core gamers from the Sony and MS camps.

No. There is Nintendo core, which like the Ninty franchises, who jumped on board this gen, and will likely jump on board every gen, and then the core.

Friend codes are still in tact, and having multiplatform games isn't exciting for the core, especially when PS360 will be vastly cheaper than WiiU, and 720/PS4 will be much more advanced than WiiU.

Couple that with the whole Wii family friend image in tact, they're going to go with Sony/MS offerings.

They can achieve, at best, 5 - 10 mill core, and that's being generous.

78.500301 million
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I think if they can make their own Nintendo Core games better, they might gain some Sony and MS camp individuals (individuals that might have left Nintendo since SNES/N64). However I agree with you in general, in the end next e3 will be telling for Nintendo. 

Honestly if they can Super Smash Bros Perfect Online experience, they will gain a really big core (assuming it is more appealing like Melee more so than Brawl) (My non-wii friends, would buy that in a instant). 

84 Million