Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What can Nintendo do at E3 to save the Wii?

What can Nintendo do at E3 to save the Wii?

No. Nintendo won't bothe... 178 39.21%
 
Yes, but it won't work 20 4.41%
 
Yes, and it will work 89 19.60%
 
Who cares? IT'S FOR KIDZ!!! 38 8.37%
 
Booth...Babes... 48 10.57%
 
See results 80 17.62%
 
Total:453
Squilliam said:

I think they will present NES 6 as a super set of the Wii. What this means is that they will keep the Wii branding and extend it so people understand that the Wii line will continue. I think they intend to make Wii games forward compatible so people understand that anything branded 'Wii' will play in both NES 6 and Wii.  I think they will call the NES 6 something like 'Wii Stream' to make people aware it's both a Wii and something more than that just as they called the 3DS an extension of the DS line.

I think any motion controlled game will be sold as a 'Wii' title and any NES 6 exclusives will be sold as 'Stream' titles. Does that make sense to you? This way they won't have any conflict of interest if they make another motion control game which is great they can use it to sell to the current Wii userbase and sell both Wii hardware and NES 6 hardware at the same time. I believe they'd want to make the migration from the Wii as painless as possible.

So I predict when you go into the stores in 2012 you will probably still see the familiar white boxes for Nintendo Wii and you'll also see some blue boxes with 'Stream' branding. They will use their marketing to make it clear that the NES 6 is still a 'Wii' but it is also more than that.

Edit: At this point I think they'll call the new console something like 'Wii Stream' if Stream is indeed the name they use for the NES 6.

This is basically my dream scenario for Wii since it means continued support for about 2 more years.



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dany612 said:

 

I HAVEN'T SEEN A WII COMMERCIAL IN SOOOOOOOOOOOOO LONG! In fact I failed to see it being advertised during the holidays and have yet to see one. Yet you see a PS3 or 360 AD a lot.  OTher thing, I only saw 2 3DS commercials since it luanched. Like wth Nintendo? You cant soley rely on word of mouth.

In the U.K, I've seen a decent amount of Wii ads.  Not as many as 360 or PS3, but not too far behind.  Where the Wii falls behind in advertising is it's 3rd party games.   The only one I've seen advertised is MH3, which probably doesn't count due to it's marketing being down to Nintendo.  Nearly all medium or high profile 360 or PS3 titles will get advertised to death, the same can't even be said to any 3rd party Wii games.  

A perfect example is the difference between Madworld and Bayonetta.  I saw no Madworld ads whatsoever, yet saw Bayonetta ones basically every damn commercial break.  Both were published by SEGA and developed by Platinum.  One could even argue that Bayonetta didn't need ads as much as Madworld as it was very highly critically acclaimed.  Another comparison can be drawn between Dark Void and Tatsunoko vs Capcom, both released by Capcom at roughly the same time.  Dark Void had a fair amount of ads and sponsored a semi major TV show, yet TvC has none.




Soriku said:
Squilliam said:

It was based off speculation @ beyond3D based off things like the Dolphin emulator and the assets produced as well as rumours etc, I don't have links to specific things but I feel confident in the conclusions made.

I think they will present NES 6 as a super set of the Wii. What this means is that they will keep the Wii branding and extend it so people understand that the Wii line will continue. I think they intend to make Wii games forward compatible so people understand that anything branded 'Wii' will play in both NES 6 and Wii.  I think they will call the NES 6 something like 'Wii Stream' to make people aware it's both a Wii and something more than that just as they called the 3DS an extension of the DS line.

I think any motion controlled game will be sold as a 'Wii' title and any NES 6 exclusives will be sold as 'Stream' titles. Does that make sense to you? This way they won't have any conflict of interest if they make another motion control game which is great they can use it to sell to the current Wii userbase and sell both Wii hardware and NES 6 hardware at the same time. I believe they'd want to make the migration from the Wii as painless as possible.

So I predict when you go into the stores in 2012 you will probably still see the familiar white boxes for Nintendo Wii and you'll also see some blue boxes with 'Stream' branding. They will use their marketing to make it clear that the NES 6 is still a 'Wii' but it is also more than that.


Hmm...what you say makes sense though it really depends if they're going to keep the Wii brand for the Cafe, otherwise the brandings beecome too conflicting. I still don't really think making a late port of Zelda SS would be that beneficial though since it's too big of a gap between SS and Cafe release. Making a late port only makes sense if they believe that the Cafe version can sell a really good amount over what the Wii version is going to sell (which is going to be a lot). Otherwise, I think other games can better showcase the Cafe's features. Zelda isn't some sort of rite of passage to a new console.

I think thats the reason why they called the Wii mote a 'Wii mote' if you get what I mean? If they follow this naming scheme you'll use a 'Wii mote' to play 'Wii games' and you'll use a 'Stream mote' to play 'Stream games' if you have the Stream console. Anyway I don't think they'll make a re-release of the Zelda game I think they'll make it so that if you put it inside the Stream console it'll be supported with full resolution effects etc. If im right it won't be a Wii game playing in the Stream console, they'll make it run as if its a Stream game and use the hardware as best they can where it is available. So effectively it won't run in an emulator it'll run as a native program on the Stream console as well.



Tease.

dany612 said:

I HAVEN'T SEEN A WII COMMERCIAL IN SOOOOOOOOOOOOO LONG! In fact I failed to see it being advertised during the holidays and have yet to see one. Yet you see a PS3 or 360 AD a lot.  OTher thing, I only saw 2 3DS commercials since it luanched. Like wth Nintendo? You cant soley rely on word of mouth.

I don't know where you live, but here in the UK there seems to be a 3DS advert on every other ad break, and now, they're actually...good. 

As for the Wii...that's a different story. As someone said, it's the SW which is needed (yet being the market leader in SW, and being close to the twins without bundles proves that old SW is still drawing in crowds. I, for one, know I need to buy a fair few Wii games when exams are over...), not a price cut. Here's how I see it:

Next week- 99k

Week after (Price cut?)- 230k

Then-210k

After-200k

Stabilising at-150-180k

 

Zelda launch-250k (assuming bundled with Wii and WM )

Stabilising at- 140-150k in summer/autumn

Novembver- 300-400k average

December- 800-1200k average week

 

End of year- 14-16mil, maybe passing the 100mil barrier, but seems unlikely at this point

 

Again, this I assuming there's a compelling line of SW, the price cut works, and, as you said, ADVERTISING!

 

Oh, Ninpanda, I think Xenoblade/TLS/DQX will move a few units. Lots of people will buy a Wii for just that game if priced at £120...



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

TheSource said:

Wii is Nintendo's biggest software market for the next year, probably the next two years depending on how 3DS grows (not looking good) and how Wii 2 launches.  I don't know that they care about Wii hardware sales too much anymore so long as software sales remain strong.

That said, Wii sales should perk up quite a bit on the price cut. Look at the lift the PSP had in the USA after its February cut - and PSP has a hell of a lot less momentum in the USA than Wii does.

If you go by Nintendo's forecast, you'd expect a split of something like 1-1.5m Wiis in Japan/ 6.5m Wiis Americas / 5m - 5.5m Wiis in EMEAA. Essentially that's:

Americas: 10 Months at 350k shipped (3.5m), 1m in November, 2m in December. If you take the January - April avg of Wii in the USA, you get about 75,000 per week - I don't think 75k for the entirety of the Americas is too hard with a price cut. That's 6.5m.

EMEAA: 10 Months 300k shipped (3.0m), 750k in November, 1.65m in December. Again, not super high figures, doable with the price cut and some games. That's 5.3m.

Japan: 10 Months 60k shipped (600k), 400k (Dec), 200k (Jan).

For software, the 120m (and 11m copies of Mario Kart bundled) probably breaks down like this:

Mario Kart (bundled): 11m

DKCR, Wii Party, Epic Yarn, Metroid, Galaxy 2, other 2010 Nintendo SW: 10m

Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Sports (debundled): 10m

Wii Play 2: 10m

Zelda: 8m

Kirby (Hal): 3m

Rhythm Heaven: 2m

Minor Nintendo Games: 2m

EA / Act / Ubisoft Games (excluding dancing): 20m

Just Dance 1-3 & Kids: 10m

Other Dancing / Fitness Games: 10m

Zumba Games: 5m

DQX: 4m (March 2012?)

Lego Games: 3m

Mario & Sonic: 3m

DQ Collection: 1m

...and then 20m for whatever is left. Probably 3-5m for other Japanese games, 5m for THQ games, and whatever else I missed. There could also be sales for big sequels for major Nintendo / third party content we don't know about yet.

The goal essentially isn't to push Wii back to 26m in a year, but to keep it as a big market. Wii / DS were a nearly 300m market last year for software - that won't dissappear overnight, so Nintendo's goal is simply to keep Wii / DS SW at relevant levels (>10m) for a while 3DS / Cafe come on as big markets.

A very interesting analysis, nice one.

I think what this goes to show is that a lot of doom theorists probably haven't seen the bigger picture, or looking forward. Who knows how the price cut may work, but it's almost certain that Wii sales will increase. And, as you pointed out, there's a lot of Wii's out there, so that means a lot of SW (I believe that nearly 1.2mil units of SW were sold last week, or around 1 mil without bundling. And that the same as the PS360, but with no major game releases AT ALL in some time...)

More worrying surely should be for the PS360. Sure, they're ahead now, but after a price-cut, they will likely be behind the Wii. And, after releasing Kinect, Slim models, Move, steady stream of compelling SW, loads of advertising etc., and they'll still end up behind a 5 year old console which was outdated at the time, is surely a worrying state of affairs. Just what do they have left to counter the Wii? I bet we'll find out at E3...

Oh, as for the 3DS, looking at how the DS sold in its early life, there's nothing to worry about. It just needs a Brain-Training or something going for it, and the sales will sky-rocket. What that will be, we can only predict now.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Conegamer said:

Oh, Ninpanda, I think Xenoblade/TLS/DQX will move a few units.

I never said Dragon Quest X wouldn't hardware. It definitely will in Japan, at least. Maybe in the west, too. But Xenoblade, The Last Story, Tales of Graces and whatnot? *shrugs* Just don't see it happening. Didn't really do anything in Japan, where games like those tend to be more demanded.

Conegamer said:

Lots of people will buy a Wii for just that game if priced at £120...

Based on what evidence? Video game message board hype?



Ninpanda said:
Conegamer said:

Oh, Ninpanda, I think Xenoblade/TLS/DQX will move a few units.

I never said Dragon Quest X wouldn't hardware. It definitely will in Japan, at least. Maybe in the west, too. But Xenoblade, The Last Story, Tales of Graces and whatnot? *shrugs* Just don't see it happening. Didn't really do anything in Japan, where games like those tend to be more successful.

Conegamer said:

Lots of people will buy a Wii for just that game if priced at £120...

Based on what evidence? Video game message board hype?


Pretty much, yeah. But what else do we have to go on?

And, also past trends of price cuts. This may be incorrect, but every price cut I can think of has had a massive spike in the following weeks, due to people who weren't willing to buy the console at the previous price will get it now. And, how when a major game releases, how the hardware increases. That can't be coincidental.

Maybe not the other games, but I think if TLS is marketed as 'by the creator of FF7 and Chrono Trigger' etc., it could easily shift a few systems. But that's if it ever comes over here...we shall have to wait and see.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer said:
Ninpanda said:

Based on what evidence? Video game message board hype?


Pretty much, yeah. But what else do we have to go on?

Well, if video game message boards were an accurate representation of the gaming market, the Wii would've bombed harder than the Dreamcast, the PS3 would've been consistently on top of the charts for the last five years, Uncharted 2 and Super Mario Galaxy would be 20 million sellers, and CoD, the Wii ____ games or NSMBW wouldn't be the biggest phenomenons in the industry since fucking Tetris.

@ everything else you said: Bleh. I don't care enough to do research. (What AM I doing in a thread about hardware sales, anyway? :/)



Ninpanda said:
Conegamer said:
Ninpanda said:

Based on what evidence? Video game message board hype?


Pretty much, yeah. But what else do we have to go on?

Well, if video game message boards were an accurate representation of the gaming market, the Wii would've bombed harder than the Dreamcast, the PS3 would've been consistently on top of the charts for the last five years, Uncharted 2 and Super Mario Galaxy would be 20 million sellers, and CoD, the Wii ____ games or NSMBW wouldn't be the biggest phenomenons in the industry since fucking Tetris.

@ everything else you said: Bleh. I don't care enough to do research. (What AM I doing in a thread about hardware sales, anyway? :/)

I suppose you're right, but like I say, do we have any other way of telling us how the market will react other than past trends? No.

So we ave to go on what we know, and, sadly, that's only message boards...



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

This is the new Wii commerical looks like

http://www.nintendo.com/video/globalplayer/player.swf?width=700&height=394&flashvars=url=/video/wii/wii_tvcm.flv&title=Wii&omniture=live&color=red&playerLocation=pop-up&autoplay=true



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