There are quite  a few ps3 games missing like the last guardian etc

The Wii I think, still pretty close to ps3 without any release. November and December will carry the Wii to victory though. Also I see a price cut coming mid september/october.

wii by a pretty comfortable margain.  Then its tricky. Depends on how much kinect helps 360 over the holidays.

If you're gonna add Agent add Kingdoms. I'll say Wii as the safe option but a PS3 price cut could overcome the Wii.

If PS3 could grow the gap then PS3 even with Wii holidays boost.

But PS3 have to increasing the gap near 1 million before holidays.

probably Wii because of PS3 being weak in Americas

Well I expect the Wii to continue its downward spiral. 

Down YoY by 15-20% sounds about right. It's currently down Weekly by 36%? That's a huge YoY drop. Last time it got a pricecut it was down by 10% for the total Year, but that pricecut also came along with NSMB Wii. I highly doubt that Nintendo can pull something as big and new as that this Year. The pricedrop will help, but it will remain down YoY again.

Wii - 15.5 Million
_______________________

I expect the PS3 to continue its upward spiral this Year.

Up YoY by about 10% in total. I expect a $50 cut with colours or agressive bundling. GT5... LBP... Uncharted. It's hard to judge how it's currently trending due to the big SW released this time last Year, and big SW currently released this Year. It has a good stream of games releasing this Year too.

PS3 - 15.8 Million
_______________________

I expect the 360 to be up YoY, having its best Year ever in the process.

Up YoY 10%. I expect a $100 cut on the 360 Elite/Kinect bundles and a $50 cut on Arcade models. It will start to come down YoY fairly soon but the Pricecut will help it be up, not by a huge amount... But still up YoY. Also has huge SW releasing this Year to keep people interested.

360 - 15 Million

Yeah. I'm brave. And yeah, I think right now, all will be that close

Last holiday Wii>PS3 by roughly 3.2m. Prolly not gonna be much lower since Wii is a holiday monster.

I don't expect Wii selling 3.2m more than PS3 this holidays... at maximum 1.5m.

Well, maybe you don't, but given Wii's past holidays and the fact that PS3 is in decline, as well, it would be unreasonable to expect a less than 2m gap. Suggesting 1m as you did is almost comical. I don't expect 3.2m either (though it could do that with a timed price  cut), which is why I put 2.5m.

'Course, it's your opinion so there's nothing I can do to change that. Maybe you're being more sensible and I just can't see it.