I'm sorry but it does. the year headstart was one of the major things that helped the 360. Nintendo already have so many advantages coming into this generation, MS and Sony can't give them this as well. Sony will likely end up releasing 6 months after Ninty (as I predicted above) and even that is going to serious decrease their chances of success.

I think the Wii 2 will sell amazingly well for the first 6 months or so (on hype alone) but after that it depends on the quality of games the system has and what kind of media attention it is getting.

The PS4 should crush the PS3 in sales because I'm expecting the PS4 to be $299 at the most, just like the PS1 and PS2. And hopefully the PS4 will be BC with the PS3 which will help PS3 software sales into the life of the PS4 and help Sony make even more money.

The Next Xbox I expect to sell on par with the 360. Maybe slightly higher if lots of casuals by it because of Kinect. 

Edit:

As for when they'll release, my best guess is:

- Wii 2 later this year, or Q1 2012

- 360 and PS3 Q4 of 2012, or if its not Q4 2012 it'll be Q3/Q4 2013.

I don't see MS and Sony letting the Wii 2 stay on market long without them having new consoles out there to challenge it. 

I don't think it will matter, really. I think the 360 and the PS3 could keep going for another 2/3 Years if Nintendo dropped the Super Wii tomorrow.

The PS3 is on a continued upward trend. It's increased in sales every Year since release. It still has plenty of room for pricecuts and is still getting a LOT of support. Sony have just started making money from it. Expect them to want to make more money. The PS3 is also selling big in new and emerging markets. Expect this to continue, and grow.

The 360 is also on an upwards trend. It's currently the only console UP YoY. It also has plenty of room for pricecuts and just had Kinect launched... Which as we can see has gave it a tremendous boost. It's still getting a LOT of support and selling a LOT of games. Microsoft are making a lot of money from it too. 

The Wii as a console is now vastly outdated tech, it's got terrible 3rd party support, 1st party support is now also starting to look bleak after the 3DS launch and it's sales are dropping... Quickly. I expect the Wii 2 to be similar in specs to both HD consoles too. While Nintendo will need to replace it soon if the drop continues, Sony and Microsoft wont need to replace the PS3 and 360 soon at all.

I think the PS3 and 360 can carry on for a good while yet, despite what Nintendo do. They will continue to make profit and sell well. 3rd parties will continue to make games for them.

Well, we have absolutely no idea what Nintendo has planned for their next console, but remember that they're not known for massively upping the tech standard.  Microsoft, Sony and third parties are happy with where the tech is at now, and there's a good chance that Nintendo's next console will result in an extension of this (that way they can sell it cheap and make profit).  I expect it to be a bit better than a 360/PS3 if they do indeed launch in 2012 (which I suspect they will), and they can then benefit from the third party games the other two have been enjoying/will enjoy, in addition to their unstoppable first party software.

What will likely set the next Nintendo apart is its new hook, not its tech, meaning Microsoft and Sony could still be in trouble against it having a head start. But simply releasing a new console may not be the solution as much as copying what Nintendo does will, but with their current Xbox/PS (if they can, that is).

Also, head starts aren't always recipes for success, as the Dreamcast proved.  And PS4 launching 6 months after Wii's successor (assuming they do launch fall 2012) would be far too premature considering PS3's still $299.

This situation is not analogous to the Dreamcast

1) Nintendo is in a much strogner financial position than Sega was.

2) Nintendo has a lot more goodwill from customers and developers than Sega did at the time

3) The dreamcast was released 4 years, 5 days after the Saturn. That is equivalent to the Wii 2 having launched in Nov 2010

The current Gen started in 2004 with the DS and then the first Home Console the XBOX 360 in 2005 so the gen is that old.

the start of a Gen is dictated by who launches first not last.  

I don't see Sony or MS releasing their consoles that much later than Nintendo, even if their sales remain stronger, I don't think they would want Nintendo to get a 2-3 year headstart in sales. But then again, if Nintendo doesn't get their act together and get back to the fundemantals of what made Wii successful for their next console, no headstart will be enough.

The next Nintendo consoles NEEDS to have some sort of hook, or aspect that differenciates from the competition and appeals to the masses, or else their next console will be another Gamecube in terms of sales, or at least an N64. They have the potential to sell 200 million, or 20 million. It'll all depend on their strategy, as well as their games. If they continue to make solely hardcore catered games that appeal to a limited audience, they will fail. Nintendo themselves will be the determining factor of their success or failure, not the competition. Also, Wii still has some potential left, and that potential lies in motion plus games, plus another price drop to help carry it, so Wii has at least another year of respectable if not great sales. I think 2012 for the next Nintendo console.

MS will probably ride out Kinect for a couple more years. 2013 sounds about right for the next MS console. They will load the console up with features (similar to the 3DS), including a Kinect ready feature with improved functions and accuracy. MS will attempt to appeal to both the core and expanded audience, though there is nothing yet to convince me that they fully understand the expanded audience like Nintendo does. So while their next console will do respectable numbers, possibly even better than the 360, they will still fall behind Sony and probably Nintendo.

I see Sony further falling back to the hardcore audience with their games, continuing emphasis of 3D, Blu Ray, and console horsepower. I see Sony's next console being much more of a sustaining upgrade, but it will still get respectable sales that will best MS's next console, mainly because of having a lower price than the PS3 launched with, as well as dominance in the EMEAA/Japan, as well as the growing popularity of Blu Ray and the strength of franchises such as Final Fantasy, GTA, GoW, and GT. I think 2013-2014 for the next Sony console.

So I think in terms of sales it'll either be Nintendo>Sony>MS or Sony>MS>Nintendo depending on whether Nintendo decides to continue down their current path and marginalize their Wii audience with limited appeal games, or if they revert back to the Nintendo that brought about games with fresh concepts and mass appeal that made Wii successful in the first place. Nintendo is going to be the biggest wild card next gen.

I think that it would be good for the industry overall to not begin the next generation of consoles until at at least 2013. A new generation probably scares most developers because development costs are already high as it is. The average costs to a produce a game this gen is much higher than the previous gen, and developing a game in the previous gen was much more costly than the generation before that. Developement costs go way up with every new generation because every little detail in a game costs money to create and every new generation greatly multiplies the amount of detail required to make a game look current. Developers need to find easier and more effecient ways to develop games if the current trend continues. From a cusumers perspective, I feel that switching to a new generation won't even be worth it if it occurs within the next 2 years. There is nothing on the PC, Crysis included, that makes me feel like the current generation of consoles is inadequate. In the past, new consoles brought better graphics which allowed for new gameplay innovations. But I feel that we are already at the point where our current tech in graphics allows for any type of game to be enjoyable. Red Dead Redemption, for example, would not have been nearly as great as it is on last gen consoles as it is on current consoles. The current generation opened up an opportunity to create a great game like that, but I don't feel that there is a game that cannot be made on our current generation of consoles because of graphic limitations. Until Microsoft and Sony can provide a truly substantial reason to make me want a new console, I don't think that a new generation is needed. I'm sure that many others feel the same way and that would greatly affect sales.

Nintendo, Christmas 2011

Microsoft/Sony Summer 2012

Nintendo - first half of 2012

Sony/Microsoft - Early 2013