Haha, because he's Kwaad won't cut it for me.

With the 360, I think the numbers are about right, because it's been through 2 Christmas's now, and the average monthly sales will predict what happens a little better for it than the other two systems. I think I do have a little more room for error on the Wii and PS3 though.

 I think you hit it right on the head about how your subjective opinion on just how awesome a game is will affect how you think it will sell. I'm trying to not do that here, but it's so hard having grown up with one system or the other.

Games ultimately sell consoles and the success of the games will determine the amount of consoles sold, predicting that things will stay at the same rate is unrealistic.

I'm sure there are a lot of Xbox owners who still haven't gotten a 360 till Halo 3 comes out, and that there are people who are waiting for Final Fantasy XIII to get a PS3 (especially in Japan I believe), there are probably people who want Wiis who can't find them and if those people stay determined to get one (especially Nintendo fans) they will impact sales when supplies are not constrained (which  will be for a while).

 With all that, I don't understand how people think that the PS3 is going to be this massive failure, even if the PS3 ended up selling less than both the Wii and the 360 (and I'm talking about the long term here) and it sells for example as much as the Gamecube or Xbox sold last generation it doesn't mean it 'failed'.

 It's Sony losing the ltop position in the console race after two leading generations but it doesn't mean failure and collapse or whatever else people are expecting to happen to Sony or its gaming division.

 With all this said, price changes effect sales a lot and the 360 will likely see a price drop next holiday season which could boost sales as well.

If Apple suddenly went from 75% of the mp3 player market to 35%, people would be screaming bloody murder. Most people would consider that failure.

Hmmm... put it in the prediction league and we'll talk to you at the end of the year!

(We've already discussed some of our predictions in this thread.)

cdude1034 - Your Wii number looks correct.

The 360 numbers, your saying 4million consoles over the next 8 months. With current 360 sales, it will sell 2million in NA alone over the next8 months. (this is not counting the holiday influx) This is also not counting Europe. I would add at least 4-6million more.

The PS3 numbers of 6.9million, is kinda low. Do you think there will be 3.5million units sold over the next 8 months in 3 regions? Expect around 100-300thousand a month in europe, 200-300 thousand a month in america With around 100 thousand in japan. That is a total of 400thousand to 700thousand/month for the next 8 months. That is at least 3.2million right there, following current sales trend. Not even counting holiday once agian. I would expect 8-9million for the PS3.

(the reason your Wii numbers are correct is because it will be production limited)

I am kwaad, That is my reason. 

 Haha, touche, Kwaad. I suppose only time will tell. After all, that is the reason why the prediction league is around.

I will eventually do more research and revise my numbers to account for holiday sales, and I do think I've  ultimately underestimated how much one game can have an effect on sales of a system, but (!) with the major games like Assassin's Creed not being exclusive, it's hard seeing games like that push one system over the other.

Going by numbers, FF is a very popular series, but I don't believe the next installment for the PS3 is coming out until late this year or early next year , so games like that won't affect sales all that much(at least this year). Actually, according to Gamestop.com, It's slated for 12/1/07. I'll bet you a dollar it's delayed.

I'll tell you what, I'll look at the numbers at the end of June and revise then. This will give me ample time to do the proper research of trends and the like. Thank you all for your input.

FF13 has been delayed to 2008.

While the games like assassins creed, and Mercenaries2, GTA4, and DMC4, are multiplatform. They will still sell as many consoles as they would if they were exclusive. The thing is, that number will be split between 2 consoles. Boosting both PS3 and 360 sales.

FF13 delayed to 2008 ?

jesus christ - how many people said that this game will change everything this year  ...

I don't recall anyone saying it would be out this year. Most release lists I've seen have always listed it as scheduled for 2008.

about 3 months ago it was slated as a possible 2007 title. Then about 2 months ago, it was pushed to 2008.