Arcturus ... maybe i made a mistake ...

i just remember a long thread last week (?) where people talked

about DQ and FF ...

 

anyway, when i tell this my father he will sure buy the wii because than he will play Fire Emblem

instead of FF

 

EDIT: thx Kwaad - you wrote it - it was said it can be possibly - thats it :) 

How does the PS3 selling 14k a week in Japan somehow translate to 100k a month there?  It's not like Japan is getting any PS3 games for the next few months, either, and even Gundam was barely a blip.

NA PS3 sold what 130k in Feb?  We'll see if it gets anywhere close to 75k/week in March but it's hardly likely. 

We don't know yet how much Europe will buy yet since sales have dropped off every week since launch and have yet to settle, but it doesn't seem to be any different there, either.

 PS3 doesn't have much compelling, its big names are either delayed or multiplat (meaning will push 360 more as its cheaper), best chance it has is MGS4 and that's doubtful for this year as well.

Not many people are going to buy a $600 console, its sales aren't going to pick up until that price tumbles whatever the games it has.

cdude1034 said: I have not factored in what might happen if a major blockbuster game comes out, and drives people to buy a system. Honestly, I can see that happening for a cheap system, like the Wii, or even the 360 (the core is getting phased out). But to buy a $600 system for 1 game? I don't care if it's Halo, you have to spend $660 plus tax in order to have the right to just play the game, never mind going online with it. Yes I do know Halo is 360 exclusive (for now...dum dum dum). In all likelihood, a game may push any of the consoles an extra 100-200k units, but lets be honest with ourselves here. One game does not make or break a console, it's the totality of the fan base, the games, the developers, the company, etc. Anything else?

Good post, but I think it misses the mark. The advantage the PS3 and 360 can and DO have is the advantage that if a blockbuster comes out, it has the ability to sell better than the Wii in terms of boosted units. A great example is the Wii vs. PS3 in Japan. Yes, the Wii is killing the PS3, but in order to have enough units for Golden Week, Nintendo is obviously holding back systems. Sony already has the systems out (albiet because they aren't selling well).

Example: Gundam Musou comes out in Japan. It sells 100% more systems that week (20k) and ends up boosting it another 15k units sold the next 2 weeks. Similar with Virtua Fighter 5, but instead, maybe 7.5k units total vs. Gundam's 35k it sold. For the Wii, there is no such "advantage". It sells out regardless if Zelda:TP came out or not.

That can have a huge detriment to your predictions. They are good, fine and solid for the Wii, but as you said, didn't take in to consideration blockbusters which are VERY important for systems that have stock left. FFXII nearly tripled the PS2s declining sales last year on launch week. Halo 2 boosted the Xbox about 50% higher than any other November and about 15% above any December it had. Big games garner big sales.

My idea(s) on predictions have been documented on the prediction league:

X360: 17.5m (massive sales due to Halo 3, GTA IV and a $100 price drop before Christmas, as well as the leading seller of Madden/NCAA 2008, which had a major impact on August sales)

Wii: 16.5m (selling out year-round, being incredibly supply constrained. Very good sales for a 1st year. Leads the 360 in Sept and October, but gets routed in Nov/Dec due to HUGE US sales and good Europe sales, and actual existent, but small, Japanese sales)

PS3 8.0m (or so, I mighta had 7.75m on my predict. Anyways, insignificant. Will get better in following years. Only boost comes from GTAIV and MGS4 in Japan)

Sales HAVE picked up in Japan on this "$600 console" when VF5 and Musou came out. Weather you want to admit it, people WILL buy a $600 system for game X or game Y....It's just alot less systems than a $200-$300 system would sell with a blockbuster.

My only real issue with Sony winning this gen is that it sets a dangerous precedent that a $600 console was able to become the market leader.  What will the next one cost?  $800?  $900?  If that's the case, then my game playing days will be over.

Um does the Wii even have a "Blockbuster" title coming out? it is selling because 1) Price 2)innovative controls..3)1st party games.This Christmas will be good i really do not see the Wii doing Massive amounts better than the 360 or the PS3 Is there a game or 2 coming out that is a "must have"coming to the WIi I mean I think people are buying Wii's steadily right now because you really don't need to "save up" for it but Really i think most people really would rather have A 400 dollar or 600dollar console that has a few 'Blockbusters" already and definitly i think people will have saved up to get the console they want by Christmas.The wii will get the most sales Ps3 will come in second and 360 will come in 3rd But i do think the PS3 can easily gain alot of ground on the 360 this Christmas with the relese of MGS4 Heavenly Sword in addition to Home.I really do not view the Wii as a competitor to the 360 or the PS3 if you want a PS3 or 360 for "next gen" gaming then a Wii isn't even close to what you want.I am sure alot of Nintendo fans will be mad at me for saying that but...it is what it is.I am sure that on any day CD players outsell Mp3 players or ipods and they both play music ..but we can all agree that its not the same.the Wii is honestly not the same type of gaming machine It is not "Next Gen" other than the controler.i am not Nintendo bashing at all I own a Wii but its not the same as my PS3 or my friends 360.Just because they released at the same time does't mean they are part of the same generation hell in that case my kids Vflash is "Next Gen" too.Wasn't it nintendo that said they were not realy next gen or in direct compitition?

Vienna said: FF13 delayed to 2008 ? jesus christ - how many people said that this game will change everything this year  ...

did you really expect to see a FF game within a year of Launch?Hell there were only really 2 Final fantasy games on PS2 that being X and XII (don't count XI) but i guess you could count X-2 so 3 in six years and I am sure X came out long after a year had past.Hell 2008 is early.I am glad too Me and Jesus Christ will have plenty to play this year Heavenly sword Metalgear4 warhawk Lair,those are the Games that will change everthing?iguess?I for one don't tink they will change "everything"just numbers of systems sold...Global warming will still be a problem...iraq will still be a problem...ice cream will still be delicious.Damn it Final Fantasy better not Mess with Ice cream damn it :P

cdude1034 said: The main defense of the PS3's relatively poor sales is that it's only been 6 months, and that's no indication of final sales. If you think about it though, it's going to be that initial fan base that's going to be spreading the word and advertising the awesomeness of their respective system, and if the Wii is in twice as many homes as the PS3, then there's going to be not only more word of mouth advertising, but actually demo-ing a friend's system. Think PS2. As far as Microsoft goes, I have no freaking clue. I see the appeal of the system as far as the whole HD graphics thing goes as well as the exclusive titles like Gears of War and Rainbow 6 Vegas (soon to not be exclusive), but to me, it's too profit driven. With millions paying monthly for a subscription to xbox live, it's hard to argue results, but what happens if dissention with the fees grow, and less people play? We'll see. Back to the other two systems; This is the race I'm following. This is important to me because I honestly don't think bullying your way into the market with a $600 system is going to work, and I don't think it's right. You shouldn't have to pay a premium for something as simple as a videogame or its respective system. However, I may end up eating my words in the end. Now, another thing I haven't taken into account, is how well games like Halo 3, SSMB:Brawl, and GT5 will sell the consoles. That's another battle in upon itself. *This number does not necessarily apply if a substantial price drop happens ($99 or more) Word.   "I have not factored in what might happen if a major blockbuster game comes out, and drives people to buy a system. Honestly, I can see that happening for a cheap system, like the Wii, or even the 360 (the core is getting phased out). But to buy a $600 system for 1 game? I don't care if it's Halo, you have to spend $660 plus tax in order to have the right to just play the game, never mind going online with it. Yes I do know Halo is 360 exclusive (for now...dum dum dum).In all likelihood, a game may push any of the consoles an extra 100-200k units, but lets be honest with ourselves here. One game does not make or break a console, it's the totality of the fan base, the games, the developers, the company, etc. Anything else?"

 Sorry for combining two of your posts but I think they are related. I am sure there are a few people who would go out and buy systems for only one or two games but I am pretty sure most are going in for a line of good games and so forth. Each system out there has amazing games listed and I am pretty sure the PS3 will get selling once a few actually hit shelves. I believe that alot of people are waiting.... if anyone remebers how the PS2 was at launch you would know the drought it went through. There were a few good titles but probably not enough to get someone to go out and purchase it.

Here's is what makes this distinction important, look at the release line up for all systems and then put  the systems in order by most anticipated game to the least. I am sure because of the type of posters on this site you ar going to see quite a few with the Wii on top, and quite a few with the PS3 on top. No disrespect to the 360 fans but it seems as if there are less of you on this site. I see it on forums the divide of POV's. Wii and 360 fans talk about this One game on the PS3 while PS3 sites mention one game on the other systems or non at all.

This is really not battle of consoles, it is more of a battle between taste's and I believe were are going to see a large devide and camps being formed for each respective system. The PS3 is doing poorly because it has no good games (IMO but I set the bar high) and its expensive. I think the wii is doing well of off its hype because its games do not seem that spectacular (IMO but I set the bar high). The end of this year will really show what's going to happen with these consoles. The 360' should be set upon high with its release of Halo 3 but will be troubled if the Wii catches up to it, the placement of the PS3 is an enigma because several exclusives each with their own fanbase are slated to be released this year and it will be an excellent indications of it's standings without MGS or FFXIII released.

This is what I find funny about your arguement because you tried to give yourself a way out with the sales of the game clause. But the games are what determines the sales period. People are buying the PS3 mainly off of expectations and the sales will grow stronger with titles that are released. I am more curious about the other systems and if they will manage to pull c even more crazy sales at the end of the year. 

DKII said: How does the PS3 selling 14k a week in Japan somehow translate to 100k a month there?  It's not like Japan is getting any PS3 games for the next few months, either, and even Gundam was barely a blip. NA PS3 sold what 130k in Feb?  We'll see if it gets anywhere close to 75k/week in March but it's hardly likely.  We don't know yet how much Europe will buy yet since sales have dropped off every week since launch and have yet to settle, but it doesn't seem to be any different there, either.  PS3 doesn't have much compelling, its big names are either delayed or multiplat (meaning will push 360 more as its cheaper), best chance it has is MGS4 and that's doubtful for this year as well. Not many people are going to buy a $600 console, its sales aren't going to pick up until that price tumbles whatever the games it has.

"Not to many People are going to buy a $600 console" Isnt the sales of the PS3 on par with the same time last year of 360 sales? the 600 isn't that big of a factor considering Wifi and Bluray are built in for about the price of 3 games.Well worth the Price and not to mention Lair, Heavenly sword,Warhawk,Playstation Home,Little Big Planet and metal gear 4(why is it doubtful this year?)But i guess none of that is as complelling as what the 360 has coming......um.......hmm......Halo 3?and Forza2? Oh I forgot the Enormously overly charged 120 GB Hard drive .."Not many people will buy a $600 Console"so how many will put $350 dollars into buying stuff for a $400 console(WiFi)(plug and play)(X-box Live)(120GB Hard drive)....?the price is alot closer than what they seem

North - Stop with the flamboyant Sony fanboy-isms.

The price different IS a big deal when the 360 is selling at a 2 to 1 ratio (or near it) in the US right now. The 360 vs. PS3 LTD from get-go is even, despite the fact that Sony has a 600,000 unit lead in Japan.

The PS3 has a few "big" games coming out (with very little proof that they will sell well, no sequals) in the near future. The 360 has alot of major sequals and new franchises coming - Bioshock, Mass Effect, Forza 2, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Halo 3 in addition to all of the typical multi-plat fanfare.

 Lets put it in simple terms: The PS3 is $600 for the model everyone buys. The 360 is $400 for the model everyone buys. It IS a big deal. Why? The PS3 did 14k in Japan. Thats LOWER than ANY month the PS2 had in Japan upto this point in history!

North - not many people are buying the 360 either, though more are than the PS3 right now.  The 360 also had supply constraints for awhile I believe, while the PS3 is in plentiful supply, but I digress.  As long as the PS3 is $600, its sales will be sluggish even if it gets some great games.  Majority of people will wait for price drops (myself included) and at that high a price everyone knows it'll have to come down sooner rather than later.  I'm not saying it won't sell, but it isn't going to sell well or really take off until that price drops a ton and/or it gets a massive library rolling.  It'll still have a decent Xmas and might out-track the 360's holiday sales last year (especially worldwide).

And stop saying the PS2 started slow, it didn't, it had some supply problems initially but it sold like a rocket right out of the gate (~25M after its first full year, think PS3 will hit that end of this year?  heck even Wii doesn't have a prayer), it's the PS1 that started slow and then mostly 'cause it was a new brand.