| cdude1034 said: I have not factored in what might happen if a major blockbuster game comes out, and drives people to buy a system. Honestly, I can see that happening for a cheap system, like the Wii, or even the 360 (the core is getting phased out). But to buy a $600 system for 1 game? I don't care if it's Halo, you have to spend $660 plus tax in order to have the right to just play the game, never mind going online with it. Yes I do know Halo is 360 exclusive (for now...dum dum dum). In all likelihood, a game may push any of the consoles an extra 100-200k units, but lets be honest with ourselves here. One game does not make or break a console, it's the totality of the fan base, the games, the developers, the company, etc. Anything else? |
Good post, but I think it misses the mark. The advantage the PS3 and 360 can and DO have is the advantage that if a blockbuster comes out, it has the ability to sell better than the Wii in terms of boosted units. A great example is the Wii vs. PS3 in Japan. Yes, the Wii is killing the PS3, but in order to have enough units for Golden Week, Nintendo is obviously holding back systems. Sony already has the systems out (albiet because they aren't selling well).
Example: Gundam Musou comes out in Japan. It sells 100% more systems that week (20k) and ends up boosting it another 15k units sold the next 2 weeks. Similar with Virtua Fighter 5, but instead, maybe 7.5k units total vs. Gundam's 35k it sold. For the Wii, there is no such "advantage". It sells out regardless if Zelda:TP came out or not.
That can have a huge detriment to your predictions. They are good, fine and solid for the Wii, but as you said, didn't take in to consideration blockbusters which are VERY important for systems that have stock left. FFXII nearly tripled the PS2s declining sales last year on launch week. Halo 2 boosted the Xbox about 50% higher than any other November and about 15% above any December it had. Big games garner big sales.
My idea(s) on predictions have been documented on the prediction league:
X360: 17.5m (massive sales due to Halo 3, GTA IV and a $100 price drop before Christmas, as well as the leading seller of Madden/NCAA 2008, which had a major impact on August sales)
Wii: 16.5m (selling out year-round, being incredibly supply constrained. Very good sales for a 1st year. Leads the 360 in Sept and October, but gets routed in Nov/Dec due to HUGE US sales and good Europe sales, and actual existent, but small, Japanese sales)
PS3 8.0m (or so, I mighta had 7.75m on my predict. Anyways, insignificant. Will get better in following years. Only boost comes from GTAIV and MGS4 in Japan)
Sales HAVE picked up in Japan on this "$600 console" when VF5 and Musou came out. Weather you want to admit it, people WILL buy a $600 system for game X or game Y....It's just alot less systems than a $200-$300 system would sell with a blockbuster.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
