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Forums - Sales Discussion - Using Context Clues to Predict

I'd like to start this off by saying that I'm being as neutral as I can possibly be. If you disagree with my reasonings, then you disagree. I neither hate Sony nor love Nintendo, like most of the people here.

It's extremely interesting for me to see the number of video game consoles sold and match them with my predictions. I guessed before the launch of both the PS3 and the Wii that the Wii would significantly outsell the PS3 at least, and catch the 360 eventually.

So far I'm right. The Wii sits comfortably at 6.58 million sold, and the PS3 a not too shabby 3.15 million. 360 is at 9.68 million.

Now if we do some monthly averaging here; 1.32 million Wii (6.58/5 months), .63 million for PS3 (3.15/5 mo), and .57 (9.68/17 mo) million for 360. (The 360 had a full year head start on both the others, plus these numbers are in no way shape or form will reflect the final sales of the product, considering the Wii and PS3 are less than 6 months old.) Do you know what these numbers mean?

It means the Wii is outselling both consoles COMBINED (per month) at the current rate.

Reading some forums and finding out from at least some consumer prospectives, Nintendo sells better because of 1) Price, and 2) Company loyalty. Sony is generally a more hated company (Gamefaqs poll). Of course, I'm thinking a lot of that is because of the price of their system.

The main defense of the PS3's relatively poor sales is that it's only been 6 months, and that's no indication of final sales. If you think about it though, it's going to be that initial fan base that's going to be spreading the word and advertising the awesomeness of their respective system, and if the Wii is in twice as many homes as the PS3, then there's going to be not only more word of mouth advertising, but actually demo-ing a friend's system. Think PS2.

As far as Microsoft goes, I have no freaking clue. I see the appeal of the system as far as the whole HD graphics thing goes as well as the exclusive titles like Gears of War and Rainbow 6 Vegas (soon to not be exclusive), but to me, it's too profit driven. With millions paying monthly for a subscription to xbox live, it's hard to argue results, but what happens if dissention with the fees grow, and less people play? We'll see.

Back to the other two systems; This is the race I'm following. This is important to me because I honestly don't think bullying your way into the market with a $600 system is going to work, and I don't think it's right. You shouldn't have to pay a premium for something as simple as a videogame or its respective system. However, I may end up eating my words in the end.

With all this being said, here are my predictions through the end of June, and then to the rest of the year.

Wii (June) - 9.2 million units sold
PS3 (June) - 4.3 million units sold
XB360 (June) - 10.6 million units

Wii (End '07) - 16.4 million units sold
PS3 ( End '07) - 6.9 million units sold*
XB360 (End '07) - 13.9 million units sold

So as you can see, through a little more than 1 year of launch, I am predicting Nintendo to be the early leader of this generation. I predict people will get tired of paying so much for a system that can't even be utilized to its full potential currently in the PS3. I predict XB 360 sales will stay steady, with the number of XB Live subs growing at a much slower rate.

Now, another thing I haven't taken into account, is how well games like Halo 3, SSMB:Brawl, and GT5 will sell the consoles. That's another battle in upon itself.

*This number does not necessarily apply if a substantial price drop happens ($99 or more)



Currently playing: Civ 6

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very good analysis, really nothing to disagree with there.

 post more, this forum needs smart people.

I agree that this is a good analysis but did you factor in the possibily that Home is successful, and Lair, Heavenly Sword, and MGS4 are release (and live up to the hype)?


Theres other games in 2007 that are actually really really good coming out for the PS3. Grant it there are some crappy ones released too but all consoles have crappy games. The Wii has Red Steal.. lol, 360 has... crap.. im air heading on the title its about some gunslinger female vampire, and the PS3 has.. Gundam Target in Sight lol.


 What happens when you factor in just those 4 factors? 

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I have not factored in what might happen if a major blockbuster game comes out, and drives people to buy a system.

Honestly, I can see that happening for a cheap system, like the Wii, or even the 360 (the core is getting phased out). But to buy a $600 system for 1 game? I don't care if it's Halo, you have to spend $660 plus tax in order to have the right to just play the game, never mind going online with it.

Yes I do know Halo is 360 exclusive (for now...dum dum dum).

In all likelihood, a game may push any of the consoles an extra 100-200k units, but lets be honest with ourselves here. One game does not make or break a console, it's the totality of the fan base, the games, the developers, the company, etc.

Anything else?


Currently playing: Civ 6

Yeah, where are those delightful Sonyites?  This thread is no fun without some type of fighting...

But awesome stuff up there Cdude.

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Honestly, I'm not trying to dis Sony. I have respect for them as a worldwide power house in video games. I simply disagree with their decision to make a system, charge $600 for it, and expect people other than hardcore Sony fans to snatch it up like the last Pokemon card pack in 1998.

I would like to hear input from some Sony fans though, the more difference in perspective, the better this thread gets.


Currently playing: Civ 6

I think the PS3 and 360 numbers are waaay low. The Wii numbers seem about right tho.

PSN ID: Kwaad

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Well why do you see it that way?


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Kwaad said:
I think the PS3 and 360 numbers are waaay low. The Wii numbers seem about right tho.

I agree. Try basing figures on sales trends from the last few years over Xmas. I think the 360 will sell 2mill in the US alone - for the Xmas period (maybe more). The PS3 may sell less, but will still sell 1-1.5m.

I also think a lot comes down to Wii production levels. With Wii shortages, people WILL buy other consoles for Xmas - the 360/PS3 will benefit from this.

And GTA4 will be a huge seller, and will drive the sales of both consoles alone.

EDIT: I still predict the 360 around the 16-17m mark, and the PS3 should be somewhere between 8m-12m (around 9m I think). 

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cdude1034 said:
Well why do you see it that way?

because he's kwaad.   you'll get to know him.

but i mean, all reasons go like "good upcoming games", "blu ray", "hardware".  and then there's "potential".  i have yet to see a new reason that actually makes me stop and say, "now, that's a worthwhile reason".

i think that ps3 will eventually catch up to 360 in monthly sales, just based on a subjective judgment of games and the apparent feeling of how PS3 appears to have a better presentation strategy than the 360.



the Wii is an epidemic.