I'd like to start this off by saying that I'm being as neutral as I can possibly be. If you disagree with my reasonings, then you disagree. I neither hate Sony nor love Nintendo, like most of the people here.
It's extremely interesting for me to see the number of video game consoles sold and match them with my predictions. I guessed before the launch of both the PS3 and the Wii that the Wii would significantly outsell the PS3 at least, and catch the 360 eventually.
So far I'm right. The Wii sits comfortably at 6.58 million sold, and the PS3 a not too shabby 3.15 million. 360 is at 9.68 million.
Now if we do some monthly averaging here; 1.32 million Wii (6.58/5 months), .63 million for PS3 (3.15/5 mo), and .57 (9.68/17 mo) million for 360. (The 360 had a full year head start on both the others, plus these numbers are in no way shape or form will reflect the final sales of the product, considering the Wii and PS3 are less than 6 months old.) Do you know what these numbers mean?
It means the Wii is outselling both consoles COMBINED (per month) at the current rate.
Reading some forums and finding out from at least some consumer prospectives, Nintendo sells better because of 1) Price, and 2) Company loyalty. Sony is generally a more hated company (Gamefaqs poll). Of course, I'm thinking a lot of that is because of the price of their system.
The main defense of the PS3's relatively poor sales is that it's only been 6 months, and that's no indication of final sales. If you think about it though, it's going to be that initial fan base that's going to be spreading the word and advertising the awesomeness of their respective system, and if the Wii is in twice as many homes as the PS3, then there's going to be not only more word of mouth advertising, but actually demo-ing a friend's system. Think PS2.
As far as Microsoft goes, I have no freaking clue. I see the appeal of the system as far as the whole HD graphics thing goes as well as the exclusive titles like Gears of War and Rainbow 6 Vegas (soon to not be exclusive), but to me, it's too profit driven. With millions paying monthly for a subscription to xbox live, it's hard to argue results, but what happens if dissention with the fees grow, and less people play? We'll see.
Back to the other two systems; This is the race I'm following. This is important to me because I honestly don't think bullying your way into the market with a $600 system is going to work, and I don't think it's right. You shouldn't have to pay a premium for something as simple as a videogame or its respective system. However, I may end up eating my words in the end.
With all this being said, here are my predictions through the end of June, and then to the rest of the year.
Wii (June) - 9.2 million units sold
PS3 (June) - 4.3 million units sold
XB360 (June) - 10.6 million units
Wii (End '07) - 16.4 million units sold
PS3 ( End '07) - 6.9 million units sold*
XB360 (End '07) - 13.9 million units sold
So as you can see, through a little more than 1 year of launch, I am predicting Nintendo to be the early leader of this generation. I predict people will get tired of paying so much for a system that can't even be utilized to its full potential currently in the PS3. I predict XB 360 sales will stay steady, with the number of XB Live subs growing at a much slower rate.
Now, another thing I haven't taken into account, is how well games like Halo 3, SSMB:Brawl, and GT5 will sell the consoles. That's another battle in upon itself.
*This number does not necessarily apply if a substantial price drop happens ($99 or more)
Word.
Currently playing: Civ 6
