3DS will win because of the huge DS established fandom.
But gap will not be as big as DS/PSP.
Sony will have to come up with a surprise like Microsoft did with X360 to be able to actually win this.
What fandom? 12 year old girls and soccer moms?? Im sorry, but huge part of DS's userbase isnt all nintendo fans, but casual players who simply buy everything that is ''new'' and fancy. Thats why they all jumped to Wii insted of PS3.If established fandom determens the winner, than PS3 should have easly been the best selling console, because of PS2's userbase. Im betting that, to most of them, 3DS is just another upgraded model of normal DS. DS, DSLite, DSi, DSXL, 3DS, you cant really know that the last one is ''next gen'' if you dont check gaming web sites, and most of DS users dont.
gaming websites mean jack shit in the sales department. Look not further than say okami or zak and wiki for that.
What is going to sell the NGP or the 3DS will be hands on. People being SHOWN the system by friends/family or by a clerk at a store or the system sitting there (whatever they call a console kiosk basically)
Advertising on TV will obviously help as well, but with the prices of these two items (no word yet on NGP of course) people will be hesitent still going into store before they purchase and be more likely to try as i said the kiosk above and see wahts so special before speding $250 on one or the other.
Which then it boils down to seeing pretty graphics on the NGP or somehow 3D graphics on the 3DS. Just thinking i can't imagine how the later will not impress them more than the former. Now on to extra features of GPS, 3G, back touch, street tag, only one friend code, ect on to all the other gajillion features between teh two. Obviously we on the forums can see that the NGP wins in this department. BUT the consumer can't see all these and/or would be confused being told about all these int eh store. They are going to rely on just the ONE thing. Amazing graphics vs. 3D without glasses. I see the later being as was said towards Wii, a bigger fad.
you do know that hes talking about fandom. not god damn sales.
next time please attention and dont start a rant talking about sales, we all know 3ds is going to destroy(except gilgamesh) and the person above was pointing out that fans from the previous gen dont guarantee you 1st place.
i was saying fandom means jack shit. only online is there such a thing as fandom
the average consumer dont' go in and go "OMG i need the new sony or nintendo" while yes there is brand recognition, which leads to a lot of consumers buying the wrong gift for their child or refer to say video games as a playstation or a nintendo.
BUT as I was saying if they are going to be getting say their kid or even heck themselves somethign new, they will be shown both most likely unless set on one while entering and then it will come down to the few seconds on the system going wow fancy graphics, or wow 3D. ignore the rest of the features, telling them it all will just confuse them and turn them off a purchase probably even.
you guys over-estimate fandom. before the playstation 1, vidoe games were called nintendo. then before wii, people would refer to vidoe games as playstations. they aren't die hard fans of said system by saying that, that is just how they thought they were called. there idiots. now video games are back to being nintendo's by the general consumer. does this mean that 3DS will win because of the fanboys? no, they will buy what attracts their attention and wows them. whatever that is, is the new term for video game