No, I said VGC sell through was 9.7m and shipments were likely 9.5m:

VGC data shows that Nintendo sold 9.7m Wiis in October to December 2010. That is down from 12.1m sold in October to December 2009. However, the 2009 figure, induced by both Nintendo with an October 2009 price drop and later retailer deals as well as New Super Mario Bros., was largely to clear out stock after Wii quickly slowed from Jan-March 2009 into April-Sept 2009. Thus with stock more normal in 2010, shipments were likely well above sales as is the case in a normal year, rather than below as they were in Q4 of calendar 2009. The clearest evidence that 2009 was an anomaly is the ratio of USA sales to world shipments. Typically the ratio is USA sales = 40%-45% of quarterly shipments. In Q4 2009 it was 50%. With a limited edition Super Mario-themed Wii for the quarter as well, Nintendo likely undershipped last quarter to help clear out old stock in preperation for the new bundle and big holiday lifts. Thus Wii shipments were likely 9.5m during Oct-Dec 2010, rather than 11.3m as they were in late 2009

@ The Source

I think the Wii sell through was massively less than 9.7 million worldwide. Based on my albeit limited info on this, the Wii most likely sold to consumers (very) considerably less than the amount of units sold by Nintendo to retail last quarter.

@ The Source

I think you will have to ready yourself for the worst Q1 in 2011 regarding Wii sales ever.

With regard to the PS3 I think you will have to ready yourself for its best Q1 in 2011, the XBox 360 is a big question mark for me at this point for the coming quarter, I guess it will perform well. Kinect was the success I expected for the United States last holiday season, but I also expect the Kinect hype to die out for the holiday season of 2011. Now many gamers still seem to be hoping Microsoft will pull a PS3 with regard to Kinect (massive technical improvements in software), something along the lines of the promised much overhyped Milo tech example by Microsoft. IMO that's not going to happen.

Low for Wii... and DS... hummm... there is the 3DS so fine.

After the first big adjustments VGC shows for Oct-Dez 2010:

Wii - 9,419,963
DS - 9,780,375

Seems like both was a bit overtracked yet.

And software sales? VGC was in line?

So distance between Shipments and slel-through are 1.3M right? 84.63M is a good number considering now they are about 85.10M now and on their way to 90M.

83.60 year end, so exactly 1 million units on shelves ect on Jan 1st, not sure if this is low, high or w/e

I wonder what Nintendo expect from Wii in the next fiscal year ... not entirely sure it'll hit 100 mill by 2012 now.

I doubt it will either seece, but it will most likely do it by next quarter after 2012. 

It should hit 100M during Q1 2012 though but finish around 96.78M end of 2011.  Shipping about 97.8M.  They should expect about 13.6M from March 11 to March 12.

Oh yeah, defo Q after if not Q4 2011.

(In Calender Year)

Q1 2011 - 84.60 P 2.3 (projected) = 86.9
Q2 2011 - 86.90 P 2.1 (down 940k YOY) = 89.0 (Could be even lower however)
Q3 2011 - 89.0 P 1.2 (down 730k YoY) = 90.2 (again could be lower with no price cut)
Q4 2011 - 90.2 P 9.0 (up 260k YoY) = 99.2 (due to price cut)

That's all very rough, basically the next few Q's (Jan/Mar, Apr/June) are going to be very very tough.

If a price cut occurs in Q3 then sales should be up YoY, but I don't think a Wii price cut will spur sales far beyond what it just did this xmas. Whatever people say, at least in the U.S it's pretty evident Kinect dented Wii sales. And with PS3, 360 and Kinect (possibly) getting a price cut same time as Wii, I don't see it selling masses.

I predict about 98 mill shipped by Dec 31st 2011.

They expect 2.3 this Jan/March Q. So if it does finish at 96.8 mill shipped by end of 2011, it might be Q2 2012 it hits 100 mill.