Still need to sell 22 million in 2008 for the Wii and a combined 17 million max for the PS3/360 to see 50% of the market.

Who really sees this happening?

Oh, my... please tell me you are kidding...

 You want to believe that, fine.  I am not going to argue with someone who makes the prediction that "Wii Fit will outsell the GTA Franchise" or that "Lifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles".

I will leave you with just one more though...

Building an install base on casual gamers is like building a house of cards.  A lot on analysts have said that they believe the Wii is a casual gamer's fad.  I don't know whether or not that's true.  But the fact that the Wii has higher sales numbers, but less than 1/2 the attach rate of the 360 gives a little creedence to the case.  Regardless, I say again:  I, as well as most 360 and PS3 owners, don't care what the Wii does.

 They'll sell more than 22 million, and PS3 and 360 won't sell more than 20 million combined

 Go check the attach rates for the PS2 in its first year

I agree I think next year PS3's market share will increase to about 25% and 360 will drop to about 35% leavin the Wii with 40% of the market share. The fact of the matter is even if demand was still high Nintendo just wouldn't be able to keep up.

Are you willing to bet money on that?

50% of the market. Pretend for a minute that the Wii sells a magical 30 million in 2008.

360/PS3 sell a combined 25 million (a gain of only 2 million over 2007) to break in at an even 50% of the market.

Now how much are you willing to bet? 

 A line in my signature stating I was wrong about Wii capturing 50% of the market by end of 2008, also there is no way they'll sell 25 million in 2008 (it took 360 25 months to reach 15 million, and PS3 13 months to reach 8, so likely they'll have no more than 20 million next year, if that), so Wii would have to sell only about 25 million to over take the 50% mark in 2008

 Hey, I can answer your question quite easily.

It's called diversity.

You see, 360 sales are going to people who ar specifically getting it because it is known for having developers put out specific games for it. It's a very focused market. Specific types of games do very well.

Wii, on the other hand, is even more diverse in consumer taste than the PS2 right now and possibly on the level or moreso than the DS lite. When it comes right down to it, the number of people in the hardcore "our specific hobby is gaming, it's what we do" crowd on the Wii is probably advancing at roughly the same rate or slightly less than the PS3 right now.

But don't be fooled into thinking that ithe Wii's hardcore crowd isn't growing at all. Right now, the hardcore crowd recognizes that the Wii is almost impossible to find right now, and that the 360 and PS3 is available right now with games that are perfectly fine for them to play. They also know that developers are still learning how to work with the Wiimote's motion controls and that until those controls are perfected, the hardcore games that use them really won't be worth getting.

So the majority of the hardcore crowd will wait for the moment, but developers will be drawn towards the Wii, just as they were drwn into the DS lite, and so hardcore games that are of good quality will actually become available and the hardcore crowd will start growing more interested. Also, from what I can see, sale rates tend to be lower on the Wii, but they also tend to last longer as well, provided a game is actually decent to begin with and not crap.

The attach rates will never be higher than what the 360 has, but that's because of percentages. When it comes down to actual sales figures, as the Wii hardware numbers grow, the software numbers for every type of game will be growing as well. It's not going to be long before it looks just the same as DS lite vs PSP games.

 So yeah, the Wii doesn'thave teh same games as the 360... for now.

 Rayman Raving Rabbids
 Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition
 Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games
 Red Steel

All Non-Nintendo published million sellers on a console which 3rd parties pretty much wrote off prior to launch .

The owness of low 3rd party sales is placed on the developers for doing rush port jobs seriously lacking in quality.  Developers underestimated the mass appeal of the Wii and were caught with their pants down.

I doubt you have any real clue how long it really takes to make a quality game title, and a lot of quality 3rd party titles have not been released on the Wii. 

Once again I say it:  Think, learn, understand.  There are things in statistics called "lurking variables," and you have to take these things in to account when doing any sort of analysis.

I think it will. I think PS3 and 360 will be dead even, with PS3 a little ahead.