Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

[Grey Acumen]

bearsfan33 said:

Oh really?

Why, then, do games sell better (much better, in fact) on the 360 than the Wii? What 3rd party titles for the Wii are lighting up the sales charts? Oh yeah, that's right... there aren't any. And, much like the Game Cube, and the N64, there probably won't be that many, either.

All of these "new gamers" to the Wii aren't interested in titles like UT3, MGS, Halo, or Forza, they want to play bowling. And as long as that remains the current install base Nintendo is going for (casual gamers), those are the titles you are going to get.

 Hey, I can answer your question quite easily.

It's called diversity.

You see, 360 sales are going to people who ar specifically getting it because it is known for having developers put out specific games for it. It's a very focused market. Specific types of games do very well.

Wii, on the other hand, is even more diverse in consumer taste than the PS2 right now and possibly on the level or moreso than the DS lite. When it comes right down to it, the number of people in the hardcore "our specific hobby is gaming, it's what we do" crowd on the Wii is probably advancing at roughly the same rate or slightly less than the PS3 right now.

But don't be fooled into thinking that ithe Wii's hardcore crowd isn't growing at all. Right now, the hardcore crowd recognizes that the Wii is almost impossible to find right now, and that the 360 and PS3 is available right now with games that are perfectly fine for them to play. They also know that developers are still learning how to work with the Wiimote's motion controls and that until those controls are perfected, the hardcore games that use them really won't be worth getting.

So the majority of the hardcore crowd will wait for the moment, but developers will be drawn towards the Wii, just as they were drwn into the DS lite, and so hardcore games that are of good quality will actually become available and the hardcore crowd will start growing more interested. Also, from what I can see, sale rates tend to be lower on the Wii, but they also tend to last longer as well, provided a game is actually decent to begin with and not crap.

The attach rates will never be higher than what the 360 has, but that's because of percentages. When it comes down to actual sales figures, as the Wii hardware numbers grow, the software numbers for every type of game will be growing as well. It's not going to be long before it looks just the same as DS lite vs PSP games.

 So yeah, the Wii doesn'thave teh same games as the 360... for now.