I disagree with a lot of your predictions(note: my predictions are yearly sales not lifetime sales and anything I do not list, means that I agree with cmeese47's predictions above)

360:

Gears 3: 4 million

Kinect Adventures: >10 million although I do not count games like this and wii sports seeing as you can not buy a kinect without it.

Kingdoms: 2 million if released November or earlier

PS3

LBP 2: 4 million

Killzone 3: 3.5 million

Infamous 2: 2 million if released pre holidays

i Agree with that however, in terms of time etc I needed to have a cut off so 500k was my choice

That wasnt the case last year. But I think you have a very safe prediction this year.

This thread sucks, will it last?

Seriously, the whole analysis is flawed it is based upon the massive assumption that 500k sales = profitable. We've had publisher executives on record saying it takes at least a million.

Needs 500k to be profitable?I can list many games that wouldn't have been/aren't profitable without reaching 500k.

But I won't bother,cause you already know that your statement is false.

Well Gears 3 is the bg release for Microsoft, but its rumoured that theres a remake of Halo: Combat Evolved that i suspect will be coming out this year as well. or possibly there will be a Halo ODST like 2009. but the other thing is Kinect titles, how much will they sell this year, but i think those PS3 titles will do well, but there also competing with each other and 3rd party games, so this could detremental to their sales in the long run.

Lets count the 5M exclusives sales instead. Trolololoololool. Just kidding.

Weird thread is weird.

Gears 3 will likely sell just as much as all of those PS3 exclusives combined that Notorious mentioned so what makes you think Not having a Halo will make any difference? BTW this is the 10th year anniversary of Halo and Xbox so no Halo is unlikely and oh also Gear 1 & 2 both have over 6 million in sales a piece. While most PS3 exclusives get around 2 million or less on average. Sony`s biggest seller is GT.

LMAO you do realize Gears 3 likely will sell 3 million in roughly a week right? Do u really think MotorStorm is going to sell that well? First 2 Motorstorm games were polished turds. Nice visuals but poor game design, cheap AI, same old bland and repetitive tracks used over and over way to frequently. They both were enjoyable for oh 2 or 3 hours tops and then you realize all its flaws and then it shows its true colors. Anyone interested in Motorstorm is better off just having the demo for the original and staying clear fro mthe full game since the demo will provide more enjoyment than the full game.

Now don`t get me wrong the upcoming Motorstorm looks cool but you have to put into consideration that the design flaws and issues in the last Motorstorm games likely will cause the new Motorstorm to either A: not do very well or B: sell well but will do so very slowly onyl due to word of mouth. At best I bet it will be at 750,000-800,000 whcih sin`t bad but i am talking long term not short term here.

MS will make more money selling Kinect hardware and software than all those games combined in 2011.

/thread