I think you're right that it's not the same as anything seen before, but I think you're not allowing yourself to draw parallels with the similarities that it does have to other successful systems. It's obviously selling well, it's obviously attracting attention of developers, and it obviously is at at a low price point both for for the players and the developers. these are al things it shares with the PS2.

The other console it shares similarities with is the DS lite, which introduces an entirely different control schema, started out with numerous games that didn't take good advantage of the control style, but is now doing very well and have a number of games in which the control style works perfectly.

Both of these systems have been selling extremely well, and while it isn't absolutely certain, this shows a definite trend that goes in the Wii's favor. When I stated all those reasons, but then used the most conservative figures, this was intended to allow these positive factors, which would otherwise make it likely to sell WELL over 100 million, to be balanced out by unforeseen negative factors. So while it's a conservative number, based on the prediction that the Wii will follow the typical trends demonstrated thus far, it's actually only a reasonable, midrange prediciton when you throw in various potential setbacks.

I still feel the prediction stands reasonable that the wii will sell 100 million within its lifetime.

Oh, and yes, now that the PS3 has put in a price drop and may be coming into some decent exclusives, I'm willing to accept that it has a good chance at 50 million, when you consider Japan, Europe and Other, in which it seems to be putting up a pretty good fight against the 360. 

 http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=GC&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=GC&reg3=Japan&weeks=55

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=GC&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=GC&reg3=America&weeks=55 

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=GC&reg1=Europe&cons2=PS3&reg2=Europe&cons3=GC&reg3=Europe&weeks=40

So if the Gamecube sold really bad, and the PS3 is only beating the Gamecube in the Gamecube's weakest market, then what does that imply about the PS3?

Except the lead for the PS3 over the GC in Europe is over a million, while the combined difference in the GC's favor in Japan AND America is around 500k.

The PS3 cannot practically sell on brand name alone. This is what Sony thought upon launch, they also assumed people would be willing to get a second job just to pay for their console and now they are paying the price for their arrogance. That said, PS3 is likely to increase sales and defeat the Xbox 360 next year.. but I still think it will struggle to sell 50 million by the end of its lifetime.. its been a year and it still has not really caught on.

The Wii on the other hand, cannot be stopped. The thing is still sold out nearly everywhere in North America and Europe.. its nearly impossible to guage what the ceiling will be for WW sales but I think a lot of people who doubted John Lucas' prediction of 60 million sales by the end of next year will be eating some serious crow. If the Wii were a fad, it would have slowed down by now but its unprecidented popularity continues unabated. The Wii will sell over 150 million in its lifetime.

PS3 will sell more than 100M. The Wii might do it too but I wonder if the Wii madness will not end next year. Oh well time will tell.

Anyway the only one I don't see reaching 100M is the 360. MS will retire it before it gets to 40M.

Yes, but I'm interested in finding out if PS3 fans are satisfied with doing worse than "really bad" in the two most important markets and marginally better than "really bad" worldwide. I stand by my point.

Edit: shortened the links since they make the text too wide for the boxes. 

The Wii may sell 100M units. It will definitely sell over 100M units -- and maybe even to the levels that John Lucas predicted (it is possible) -- if it is able to break into China and then India in a big way. Of course, it will have to battle the Vii 8*>). (

The PS3 needs games to sell the system. They seem to be continuously delayed, which is stalling any move it may make. But the Sony brand is not viewed as highly as it once was in the US (can't speak for other markets), so name alone will not drive sales. Also, if you are comparing to GC and Xbox, you are talking aobut 25M lifetime sales -- not 50M. The Wii will have that amount no later than mid-2008.

Mike from Morgantown

The DS and the Wii will both hit 100 million I think. I highly doubt the PS3 hitting 100 million though just because their sales have mainly been supported by price cuts so far and even then its only beaten the 360 a few weeks out of the year.

I've almost got Bingo

ps3 is dumb y would any1 buy it thy r so over price and dumb if u buy a ps3 u r stupids thy will never sell more then 7 coz thy r stupid and dumb and u iz stupids if u buys ones