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Forums - Sales - *Prediction__Wii to sell 105 Million End Of 2011!*

yonizaf said:
gum said:

- Not GC backward compatible anymore.


Not gonna happen. Wii has the same hardware as GC (just "overclocked", you may say) so there's no point in removing GC compatibility, it won't reduce unit cost one bit. That's unlike the PS3's backward compatibility with PS2, which required additional hardware parts to work, and thus removed to reduce costs.

I don't think that they are going to remove this feature to reduce the costs but to reduce the size of the device because they can't significantly do that if they have to keep the GC controllers ports. Also after a while BC is not a selling point anymore.



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gum said:
yonizaf said:
gum said:

- Not GC backward compatible anymore.


Not gonna happen. Wii has the same hardware as GC (just "overclocked", you may say) so there's no point in removing GC compatibility, it won't reduce unit cost one bit. That's unlike the PS3's backward compatibility with PS2, which required additional hardware parts to work, and thus removed to reduce costs.

I don't think that they are going to remove this feature to reduce the costs but to reduce the size of the device because they can't significantly do that if they have to keep the GC controllers ports. Also after a while BC is not a selling point anymore.

They won't remove it just to make an already tiny console even smaller. Or rather, they have no reason to make it smaller. There's no point in making it portable, as it will need a TV screen where ever you go. Want a portable? get a DS/3DS. That's what it's for. If anything, they'd rather your friend bought a Wii than you bringing your Wii over. (Still, a redesign is possible, but not to make it smaller)

On the same note, a "real" Pokemon title on the Wii isn't going to happen for the same reason. The main idea behind Pokemon games is the random encounter, meeting people outside, at school etc. and trading pokemon with them. It only works with a portable, which is why for the 15 years Pokemon exists there was never a "real" Pokemon game for home consoles.

Lastly, I don't think HD Wii is going to happen either. So here's my prediction: There won't be any new "revision" of the Wii until the next console comes out (Wii2 or whatever)



 

I think there is a point to make it "portable" and I think that's a point that Miyamoto himself have talked about many times and have already tried to use. Do you remember the -quite silly to be honest- Gamecube handle:

It certainly wasn't a fantastic idea but again that certainly prove that Nintendo and Miyamoto think that there is a point to make a console more portable. Do you also remember when Miyamoto made his comment about how it would be great to have a gaming console that you could take with you and play wherever you want (if someone find the exact quote...)? It could also point to this. So I think it would be premature to say that there is no chance for this to happen. Then of course the reason why this could be a good idea is because the Wii is a very social console so making it easy to play at parties makes certainly sense. And to achieve that you have to make it smaller.

As for Pokemon it's certainly not selling only because of the reasons you are giving. Will Pokemon continue to sell better on handhelds? Probably. Could it sell millions on console? Probably too and that the only remaining amazingly strong licence Nintendo could use. In fact your comments remind me of what people were saying about a possible NSMB Wii.

 

As for the HD Wii I'm just talking about a console that could upscale existing games in HD not a significantly more powerful console like Patcher do. Nintendo has never said this couldn't happened just that they needed to propose more features than just that. A smaller console and a little HDD in order to make the wii more portable could be those.

 

Whatever you should probably try to use words like maybe or perhaps more often because neither you or I can know for sure what they will decide to do. All we can do is to make logical assumptions and find the best possible arguments to back them up.




Seece said:
Beuli2 said:
Seece said:
Beuli2 said:

I don't see many people rushing to buy a GC for Super Mario Sunshine. In the other hand, NSMB Wii and DKR were the reasons I bough the Wii, and I doubt I'm alone.

Oh I doubt you are, there are many dedicated Nintendo fans out there, about 22 million going by last gen.

NSMB didn't push hw last xmas past any normal boost. It got a price cut, that's what boosts a console, and NSMB was the IT game at the time, flooded with adverts everywhere, of course it was going to sell.  Funnily enough though those adverts were the worst to portray Wii and what it does best (motion) like the mario kart wii ads and wii fit ect.

"True Nintendo fans"(whatever that means) already have bough the Wii. You simply decidd to ignore that what pushed me to buy my Wii wsn't the motiom controll gimick. And what makes you think that the best thing the  Wii has to offer is a gimick like motiom controls? The year's before ads showed people playing togheter is what the "We" is about, it never was the motiom control gimick.

LOL deary me.

What arnt you getting, I know in an ideal world a large percentage of its userbase is people that have bought the Wii for its Mario core titles ect and not for motion, but you're wrong, at this point it's likely less than gamecube. Wii HAS sold on its motion, if it were a normal console and those ads aired do you think it would have got anywhere? pfft. No.

You can design Wii anyway you like, the only way it was going to take off like it has was having motion controls with it. Stop pretending the world has embraced Nintendo again because of NSMB and ads showing "togetherness"

It was that advert of someone mimicing a bowling ball that got people interested and got people buying.

It seems to me a few Nintendo fans like to stick their head in the sand, completely forget about gamecube and pretend Nintendo made a comeback on the basis of  adverts of "togetherness" LOL if only it were that easy to get a 100 million userbase!!!

But are people just buying Wiis for the motiom control gimick? No they aren't. No one buys something just for the tech. They are they buying it for the games, and sometimes, the motiom controls they have. You yourself said "It was that advert of someone mimicing a bowling ball that got people interested and got people buying", but then it was people seeing them playing bowling. Maybe it was because they saw themselves playing it more realistic, but what they saw was the game.

The Wii wouldn't have sold nearly as much if it hadn't Wii Sports, a game with it. Then it would be just "motiom controls" just like you say. And it seems you again ignored that what pushed me to buy my Wii weren't the motiom controls, but the games.

And why do you keep ignoring that on the week NSMB Wii was released on Japan, it had a 200% boost? Nintendo themselves admited that last year's sales weren't as good as the years before because they hadn't a megaton hit like NSMB Wii.

People didn't bough the Gamecube or N64 because they were not interested in their games, and this is the same reason Super Gamecube games like Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Other M fail and will continue to fail to sell consoles as long as Nintendo keeps releasing them. These are the games only "Nintendo fans" buy.

And why are you calling me a Nintendo fan? I never adressed myself as that unless for the lulz. Before getting my Wii, I had a PS and a PS2. I just completly skipped the N64 and GC because I had no interess in their games (mostly, as some were good for me). I'm not a Nintendo fan, I'm a gaming fan, it just happened to be that the type of games I like the most were on the Wii. Had them been on other console, I would have bough it.



Above: still the best game of the year.

gum said:

 

I think there is a point to make it "portable" and I think that's a point that Miyamoto himself have talked about many times and have already tried to use. Do you remember the -quite silly to be honest- Gamecube handle:

It certainly wasn't a fantastic idea but again that certainly prove that Nintendo and Miyamoto think that there is a point to make a console more portable. Do you also remember when Miyamoto made his comment about how it would be great to have a gaming console that you could take with you and play wherever you want (if someone find the exact quote...)? It could also point to this. So I think it would be premature to say that there is no chance for this to happen. Then of course the reason why this could be a good idea is because the Wii is a very social console so making it easy to play at parties makes certainly sense. And to achieve that you have to make it smaller.

As for Pokemon it's certainly not selling only because of the reasons you are giving. Will Pokemon continue to sell better on handhelds? Probably. Could it sell millions on console? Probably too and that the only remaining amazingly strong licence Nintendo could use. In fact your comments remind me of what people were saying about a possible NSMB Wii.

 

As for the HD Wii I'm just talking about a console that could upscale existing games in HD not a significantly more powerful console like Patcher do. Nintendo has never said this couldn't happened just that they needed to propose more features than just that. A smaller console and a little HDD in order to make the wii more portable could be those.

 

Whatever you should probably try to use words like maybe or perhaps more often because neither you or I can know for sure what they will decide to do. All we can do is to make logical assumptions and find the best possible arguments to back them up.


Sorry, I'm new to predictions. Just add "probably" to anything I said. Not like it's not obvious anything I say is just my opinion.

What I'm saying is, the Wii is already small and light enough to take around. It's already much smaller than GC, and pretty easy to carry around. It's also much lighter than most laptops (or even netbooks), if it helps any. Rather, four wiimotes plus nunchucks may take more space than the console itself (didn't check it, just guessing). And if you want there's still room to make it smaller, even without removing the GC ports.

Side note: Wii released in south korea is not GC compatible, but it seems to be a firmware limitation, as the ports are still there, and it's probably because GC was never sold in south korea. or something like that.

Since i think it won't get smaller, HD Wii will stay just that, and then, that won't happen. Just to clarify: I do think that if the Wii gets a revision, it may include HD and redesign and getting smaller etc. (withuot removing GC though). I just don't think it will get a revision, since none of these are really needed. (And if they do want to add something, they'll just make an addon, as MS did with Kinect)

as for pokemon, it's not about why its selling, it's about gameplay. the concept behind pokemon games is the trading and completing the set, this is what made it popular in the first place - it wouldn't have been this popular as just another rpg. and although you're right that with the current fanbase any game with the pokemon title would sell millions, that why they have spinoff games for. but for the main title i'd say they'll stick to the usual (unless by true pokemon rpg you meant something like mystery dungeon, then it's possible to see one for the wii). NSMBW is not a good example because mario games started with home consoles.

(Edit: Maybe. There, I said it. Happy?)



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Seece, give up, these people don't want to hear such things. NSMBWii is responsible for every single hardware sale the last year and-a half and price doesn't matter etc.



I believe Wii will top 90M around August to September this year,  but last year NSMBWii wasn't the main cause of Wii's boost but it helped, the usually holiday and price cut were more responsible.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

Not 105, but should reach 100 million by the end of the year.

Around 16-17 million this year...



> yonizaf

 

The Wii is already very small, of course but it hasn’t been designed to be an easily portable console and as a result many aspects of its design could be significatly improved to reach that goal. Like Nintendo latest strategy choices it won’t be about adding features just for the sake of it but to lure different customers and even in a way change the way people use their consoles and play games. HDD would help that> no need to take your games with you as those would be installed, redesign > obviously smaller console, wiimote > compact controllers, perhaps even wireless nunchuks would also make sense. HD would be just a plus thought not something necessarily required for this concept but I think this feature would be perfect for the realistic environments of a game like Pikmin 3 that we can certainly expect for Fall 2011.

Perhaps you think that this concept is not compelling enough, still I don’t think you can say that’s an approach that was experimented with the original design and you can’t either say that Nintendo hasn’t shown interests in trying this kind of approach either.

 

About Pokemon you made a very good point and you’re probably right when saying that the reasons you gave explained why there hasn’t been any true Pokemon game on a Nintendo console yet but I just want to say that you can’t affirm that there is no way to fix that. Nintendo could maybe use online to fix that, or they could give the possibility to put your game data on a SD card to make battles at your friends home or add the possibility to put this data on the new generation of wiimotes or use the 3DS to make the exchanges and battles or any other solutions I’m not thinking about right now. Or they could find another formula which would keep other main strengths of the licence and adding new ones, just like 3D Marios are different than 2D Marios, who knows? That’s why I was saying that you should be more cautious with your assessments because nothing is definitive: it’s always possible to find a solution to a problem. I’m not sure what would be the best way to resolve this one but they imo have to find a solution about it because that's a key franchise they have here, one with a very specific audience and one that could even help them to have a much better support from third parties as it is JRPG, a very important genre in Japan.

Lately Nintendo has made an amazing job at taking the best out of their main licences especially on Wii, I just can’t see them not at least trying with one as important as Pokemon.





gum said:

Lately Nintendo has made an amazing job at taking the best out of their main licences especially on Wii, I just can’t see them not at least trying with one as important as Pokemon.




What you suggest is called abusing a license, rather than taking the best out of it. It is a very bad idea, and while it can make more money for a short time, it will hurt the franchise in th long run. A fine exmaple is the one you mentioned, 2D vs 3D mario games. While galaxy was an exceptionally good game (recieved top score on vgchartz), it didn't sell half as much as NSMBW, because that's what people expect from a mario game. It's okay to experiment with spinoff games, but for a main title of a series it's best to stick with the winning formula.

Other than that, I think we both made our points, and there's not much more room for new arguments. so, here's my final predictions:

1) Wii won't get a revision, with or without any of the features you mentioned, though a slight redesign is possible. Also there will likely be a new addon of some sort, but it probably won't be the vitality sensor (or so I hope).

2) There won't be a main pokemon title (aka new pokemon generation) for Wii. There may still be a spinoff title, or even a companion game to a portable main title.

3) To be more on topic with this thread: The Wii will sell 101.3m by the end of 2011.