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Forums - Nintendo - Will the Wii reach 100 million by 2011?

Pineapple on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:
RolStoppable said:

No games, no sales.

Sorry rol its kinda hard to you serious sometimes because i don't know if your being sarcastic or serious, i highly doubt your being serious, because honestly this people are clearly blind. 20 million is looking quite likely for the year now, 3 weeks left and last year it did another 4.6 million before the end the wii's at 15.9 million now 85 million sell through is looking likely too. So all this 82 -83 million talk proves they haven't looked and what exaxtly did the wii have early next that it doesn't early next year.

Last year the Wii set an all time record for December sales of a home console, it's not going to match that this year, much less eclipse it. So 84m it's going to be at the end of this year.

What the Wii had at the beginning of 2010 that it won't have in 2011:

In EMEAA Just Dance had an effect on hardware sales after having a slow start in 2009. The game didn't become big until early 2010. In Japan NSMB Wii's legs helped the Wii a lot. For that reason we will see a major year over year drop in Japan. In America NSMB Wii's legs helped as well, but the Wii was still down from 2009.

Overall, the Wii has some tough times ahead of it in all markets. Selling 16m in 2011 will be hard, but not impossible. It largely depends on when Nintendo launches which games and whether or not they cut the price in late summer/early fall. With the third party support the Wii gets, it's pretty much impossible to sustain the sales of 2010 in 2011.

I think your "no games, no sales" philosophy is causing you to be a bit blinded here, Rol. It doesn't matter if the Wii has few blockbuster sellers in 2011, it matters that it has roughly as many as it had in 2010.

 Your comment about NSMB Wii's legs helping it doesn't convince me at all. The Wii is right now selling as much as it was in the same period of 2009. Just saying "NSMB Wii sustained it in early 2010" doesn't cut it. Will the reasons for the 2010 holiday sales hold up any worse than the reasons for the 2009 holiday sales did, is really the question you should be asking. I don't see any reason for that to be the case. Early 2011 should be similar to early 2010.

If you break down the Wii's sales on 2010, I'm really not sure where it will fall far behind in 2011. There's little reason to believe Q1 will be down by a lot - at least I haven't seen any good reasons why. The Wii of 2010 had quite substantial drops in Q2 and Q3, and performed quite, well, rubbish. I really can't believe the Wii of 2011 will drop much more than that. Q1 Q2 Q3 of 2011 could be a bit lower than previous years, say 7-9 million (9 million in 2010, 9.6 in 2009, 13 in 2008), but not a wholesome lot more than that. It's starting 2011 with the same momentum it started 2010 with.

The Wii could see a far, far smaller holiday quarter next year, though.  You see, the Wii has one really major competitor. The 3DS.

Not in competition over customers - although that too might hurt the Wii slightly - but in Nintendo's support of the Wii. Making the 3DS a success is the first and foremost goal of Nintendo for 2011. That's where the software titles will be put, and that's where the marketing and creative thinking will go. The reason for the holiday boost this year is that Nintendo pulled a few tricks, will they do that next year?

I'm personally doubting a 2011 price cut for the Wii, at least not a truly major one. Still, it needs to sell 8 ish million in the holiday quarter (assuming the 7-9 million for the first 3 quarters). That really shouldn't be too hard. It did 12 million in 2009, and it's looking to do a bit under 10 in 2010.

It should make somewhere around that, I guess. A 14-18 million 2011 for the Wii seems quite likely to me.



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Pineapple on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
Pineapple said:

I think your "no games, no sales" philosophy is causing you to be a bit blinded here, Rol. It doesn't matter if the Wii has few blockbuster sellers in 2011, it matters that it has roughly as many as it had in 2010.

 Your comment about NSMB Wii's legs helping it doesn't convince me at all. The Wii is right now selling as much as it was in the same period of 2009. Just saying "NSMB Wii sustained it in early 2010" doesn't cut it. Will the reasons for the 2010 holiday sales hold up any worse than the reasons for the 2009 holiday sales did, is really the question you should be asking. I don't see any reason for that to be the case. Early 2011 should be similar to early 2010.

If you break down the Wii's sales on 2010, I'm really not sure where it will fall far behind in 2011. There's little reason to believe Q1 will be down by a lot - at least I haven't seen any good reasons why. The Wii of 2010 had quite substantial drops in Q2 and Q3, and performed quite, well, rubbish. I really can't believe the Wii of 2011 will drop much more than that. Q1 Q2 Q3 of 2011 could be a bit lower than previous years, say 7-9 million (9 million in 2010, 9.6 in 2009, 13 in 2008), but not a wholesome lot more than that. It's starting 2011 with the same momentum it started 2010 with.

The Wii could see a far, far smaller holiday quarter next year, though.  You see, the Wii has one really major competitor. The 3DS.

Not in competition over customers - although that too might hurt the Wii slightly - but in Nintendo's support of the Wii. Making the 3DS a success is the first and foremost goal of Nintendo for 2011. That's where the software titles will be put, and that's where the marketing and creative thinking will go. The reason for the holiday boost this year is that Nintendo pulled a few tricks, will they do that next year?

I'm personally doubting a 2011 price cut for the Wii, at least not a truly major one. Still, it needs to sell 8 ish million in the holiday quarter (assuming the 7-9 million for the first 3 quarters). That really shouldn't be too hard. It did 12 million in 2009, and it's looking to do a bit under 10 in 2010.

It should make somewhere around that, I guess. A 14-18 million 2011 for the Wii seems quite likely to me.

Keep in mind that I am one of the few who believe that the Wii will reach the 100m mark, achieving roughly 16m in 2011.

Japan will be where the Wii is going to be down, because NSMB Wii really helped a lot there. Of course Japan's numbers are small to begin with, so even a 30 % drop year over year over the course of the first half of the year won't amount too much.

Beyond that I can't be bothered to say more, because we both arrive at pretty much the same estimate for 2011 sales. We are just taking slightly different guesses at what will happen, most notable at a possible price cut and unannounced games.

I started out disagreeing with you and then slowly convinced myself that I was wrong and you were right over the course of my post.

... I probably should have edited something, considering that.



Immortal on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
Immortal said:

Honestly, Nintendo could do something ridiculous like "NES-Wii" with horizontal positioning as standard, Sensor implemented inside console and bundled with SMC.

That would be ridiculous indeed. Implemented sensor? Are you sure you know how the Wii works?


Obviously not, :P. Just throwing random ideas around. Maybe a camera? That's innovative, xD.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

SaviorX on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:

Why exactly will the wii drop that hard in 2011?

No games, no sales.

Pretty much this.

I am skeptical of what software could potentially do for the Wii this late in the game. Based solely on what we know now, the outlook is bleak for the Wii in comparison to 2010 sales; 3rd parties had quite the amount of hits this HOLIDAY SEASON for the Wii, but as far as I know their support will be even lower during the course of next year than it was for 2010.

In terms of Nintendo Software, I don't know if what they have in store is evergreen/bridge or has system selling potential. They could release Vitality Sensor and beat 2009 sales, or they could release Wii Music 2 and effectively stop Wii sales cold. Ninty has been hinting at a WM2 as well, so I'd take precaution haha.

Zelda can only do so much, and Japan is a wasteland. There is DQX (maybe 2011), The Last Story, and Earth Seeker. TLS can push some units due to bundling, but Japan has constantly disappointed in the SW department this gen; I'm not getting my hopes up now.

A price cut could change things, but like Rol said, no games no sales.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

phenom08 on 21 December 2010
SaviorX said:
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:

Why exactly will the wii drop that hard in 2011?

No games, no sales.

Pretty much this.

I am skeptical of what software could potentially do for the Wii this late in the game. Based solely on what we know now, the outlook is bleak for the Wii in comparison to 2010 sales; 3rd parties had quite the amount of hits this HOLIDAY SEASON for the Wii, but as far as I know their support will be even lower during the course of next year than it was for 2010.

In terms of Nintendo Software, I don't know if what they have in store is evergreen/bridge or has system selling potential. They could release Vitality Sensor and beat 2009 sales, or they could release Wii Music 2 and effectively stop Wii sales cold. Ninty has been hinting at a WM2 as well, so I'd take precaution haha.

Zelda can only do so much, and Japan is a wasteland. There is DQX (maybe 2011), The Last Story, and Earth Seeker. TLS can push some units due to bundling, but Japan has constantly disappointed in the SW department this gen; I'm not getting my hopes up now.

A price cut could change things, but like Rol said, no games no sales.

so like Rol your making the same mistake because like Rol you know nothing of its software come next year, what exactly did third parties have this year that help keep the wii goin, that we knew about a year before, remember alot of those games we found out about around e3 so why not just wait and see what third parties have instead of assuming they have nothing



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Beuli2 on 21 December 2010
Immortal said:
RolStoppable said:
Immortal said:

Honestly, Nintendo could do something ridiculous like "NES-Wii" with horizontal positioning as standard, Sensor implemented inside console and bundled with SMC.

That would be ridiculous indeed. Implemented sensor? Are you sure you know how the Wii works?


Obviously not, :P. Just throwing random ideas around. Maybe a camera? That's innovative, xD.

I was trying to make some joke out of this, but after several minutes, I give up :(



Above: still the best game of the year.

Pavolink on 21 December 2010
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:

Why exactly will the wii drop that hard in 2011?

No games, no sales.

Wait for Nintendo Media Summit (if they do next year) and E3.



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Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


Immortal on 21 December 2010
Beuli2 said:
Immortal said:
RolStoppable said:
Immortal said:

Honestly, Nintendo could do something ridiculous like "NES-Wii" with horizontal positioning as standard, Sensor implemented inside console and bundled with SMC.

That would be ridiculous indeed. Implemented sensor? Are you sure you know how the Wii works?


Obviously not, :P. Just throwing random ideas around. Maybe a camera? That's innovative, xD.

I was trying to make some joke out of this, but after several minutes, I give up :(

I am talented at the art of slaughtering humour, :D.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

mortono on 21 December 2010

Yes under 2 conditions:

1. Price cut.

2. At least 1 title released that is capable of selling over 10m and pushing hardware (wii relax?).



SaviorX on 21 December 2010
phenom08 said:
SaviorX said:
RolStoppable said:
phenom08 said:

Why exactly will the wii drop that hard in 2011?

No games, no sales.

Pretty much this.

I am skeptical of what software could potentially do for the Wii this late in the game. Based solely on what we know now, the outlook is bleak for the Wii in comparison to 2010 sales; 3rd parties had quite the amount of hits this HOLIDAY SEASON for the Wii, but as far as I know their support will be even lower during the course of next year than it was for 2010.

In terms of Nintendo Software, I don't know if what they have in store is evergreen/bridge or has system selling potential. They could release Vitality Sensor and beat 2009 sales, or they could release Wii Music 2 and effectively stop Wii sales cold. Ninty has been hinting at a WM2 as well, so I'd take precaution haha.

Zelda can only do so much, and Japan is a wasteland. There is DQX (maybe 2011), The Last Story, and Earth Seeker. TLS can push some units due to bundling, but Japan has constantly disappointed in the SW department this gen; I'm not getting my hopes up now.

A price cut could change things, but like Rol said, no games no sales.

so like Rol your making the same mistake because like Rol you know nothing of its software come next year, what exactly did third parties have this year that help keep the wii goin, that we knew about a year before, remember alot of those games we found out about around e3 so why not just wait and see what third parties have instead of assuming they have nothing


Like I said, I have no idea what's in store next year. The numbers I had earlier were near worst-case scenario. With all the software possibilities in store for next year, in addition to a potential price cut, the Wii indeed could pass 100m. However, with just normal yearly decline and SUSPECT 3rd party support, I don't think it could quite make it to 100m by Dec. 2011.

Just check my earlier post; I pretty much said all I had to :P



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."