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Linkzmax said:

No you didn't miscount, and no you didn't need to hold my hand.

I would've liked better reasoning as to why nen or radish could be scum. Otherwise it's actually quite obvious that the best choice for today is actually to lynch.

Let's go through the four of us shall we:

radish is confirmed town twice over. First there's Truck calling him a fellow mason before getting offed. Now there's nen saying he gave radish protection. If nen's telling the truth then radish was saved from the night kill. If nen is lying then he's actually scum.
Wait, someone might point out that radish could've chosen not to make a night kill. But you'd have to ask why? radish could've taken a shot at nen without any risk. If nen chose to protect himself then there's no loss, but if nen protected anyone else it would've been an easy win today as you and I focused on each other.

There's a very small chance nen could be scum, but this would mean he actually chose not to kill anyone. Again, why? nen could've taken radish(and claimed he protected himself or even you or I for possible extra believability) out without any worry of having the kill blocked, and then it'd probably be an easy win today as you and I focused on each other.

That leaves the two of us. There is no reason if one of us is scum to choose not to kill. This ties in directly with my point that the best plan for today is to actually have a lynch. I think you'd agree that if either of us is mafia, then the best chances of scum winning is for both of us and one of radish or nen to remain alive. Then it basically comes down to a townie making the wrong choice. Your quick vote for a no lynch says to me that you're anxious to get another chance of killing one of them to create the "ideal" setup. The reason we should lynch today is because assuming one of us is mafia, it gives town the best possible odds at winning.

Let me break down that last point in a separate paragraph. If you or I is the last mafia, then town has a 50% chance of winning with a lynch today. If town chooses wrong, then there's a 50% chance that nen blocks the kill at night. Meaning town has a 75% chance of winning.
If we no lynch, then obviously there's a 0% chance today. Then there's a 50% chance of the mafia evading nen's protection, followed by a 50% chance of winning with a lynch. In the event that nen protects the night kill, then we're right back to today. Meaning town has a 50% chance of winning.
This of course puts the odds at zero that with a no lynch mafia wouldn't take out you or I. But as I outlined above, radish and nen are town(or making very unnecessary choices as scum) so I'm okay with that.

So unless you can bring up something that makes sense as far as radish or nen being mafia the choice to lynch today is quite clear. And with that:
Vote: Final-Fan

Now to convince nen and radish that this plan is for the best. Note that I'm not even trying to convince you to lynch FF, just that no lynch isn't the best option. I will certainly do more to push his lynch over my own if you need convincing and I'll defend myself until the end should you guys lean my way, but this is just for deciding if a lynch is best.

nen is easy. If you're town then see above, you increase the odds of winning by 25% if there's a lynch today. The only reason you should hesitate to agree is if you believe there to be a good chance that radish is actually scum and not FF or I. If you're scum then it's an obvious choice because you'll win outright.

radish. If you're town then see above, you increase the odds of winning by 25% if there's a lynch today. The only reason you should hesitate to agree is if you believe there to be a good chance that nen is actually scum and not FF or I. If you're scum, then first of all you're an idiot,(sorry for being rude if that's the case, but it's true even if you end up winning as scum) and secondly it's an obvious choice because unless nen was lying about never protecting me or FF again, then you'll have an easy kill tonight.

The problem with that logic is that I know I'm not mafia, and you supposedly know you're not mafia, so from my perspective the odds don't increase at all, since if I mislynch you (or you mislynch me) then that pretty much means nen is mafia (and not doctor).  He kills someone, bam game over. 

Admittedly, the logic works for nen and radish, but NOT ME (or you).  I didn't look at it from other people's perspectives. 

So it still comes down to whether I think you or nen are mafia, and a nightkill could not possibly hurt the odds from my perspective.  But since No Lynch probably won't happen,

Unvote No Lynch
Vote Linkzmax
.



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So at this point I would like to ask nen and radish: 

Do you think Linkz just outsmarted himself and outed himself by using that faulty logic? 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Current Votes (3 required)

[0, L-3] No Lynch: (FF)

[1, L-2] FF: LINK

[1, L-2] LINK: FF



Final-Fan said:

The problem with that logic is that I know I'm not mafia, and you supposedly know you're not mafia, so from my perspective the odds don't increase at all, since if I mislynch you (or you mislynch me) then that pretty much means nen is mafia (and not doctor).  He kills someone, bam game over. 

Admittedly, the logic works for nen and radish, but NOT ME (or you).  I didn't look at it from other people's perspectives. 

So it still comes down to whether I think you or nen are mafia, and a nightkill could not possibly hurt the odds from my perspective.  But since No Lynch probably won't happen,

Unvote No Lynch
Vote Linkzmax
.

It took you an hour and this is what you come up with?

As I said, what reason would nen have to not kill someone last night? There's just no logical explanation. This isn't like last round which radish pointed out, because we already have the doctor claim. Choosing not to kill wouldn't create any confusion, it's just pointless. You're really going to have to do a better job at making nen out to be suspicious if I am to be convinced that a no lynch is the better option.

Also, the logic isn't faulty unless you and I are both townies. Your vote for me suggests you think otherwise. I will give you the fact that you are right that our individual odds don't increase with a lynch today, again IF we are both townies. But it's unlikely that they'll increase by allowing a night kill either. Today you're suspicious of nen and I. nen, as scum, would obviously not night kill me and make himself the only target.



Final-Fan said:

So at this point I would like to ask nen and radish: 

Do you think Linkz just outsmarted himself and outed himself by using that faulty logic? 

I'm not sure hows that logic is faulty ?......actually his analysis and percentages were kinda surprising and convincing

because i too thought that no lynch was the only option.

Yes is could be a trick but its based on logic and fact thats are hard to ignore.



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Glad you're on nen. I have a line of questioning for you if you wouldn't mind answering me. To be up front about it, I'm going to try to make you slip up, but I doubt that's going to happen. The doubt is because I heavily believe you're the doctor, and even if you are lying scum you'd be doing a poor job at it.



Linkzmax said:

Glad you're on nen. I have a line of questioning for you if you wouldn't mind answering me. To be up front about it, I'm going to try to make you slip up, but I doubt that's going to happen. The doubt is because I heavily believe you're the doctor, and even if you are lying scum you'd be doing a poor job at it.

Hey who made you cop :P

go a head



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First, do you trust radish as town absolutely? If not, I would really like some reasoning. I was honestly looking for the same from FF, even if he is my only suspect at the moment.

Now, I'll preface this by saying that I want you to answer who you protected at night in a specific order. If you fear that you may reveal some pattern and thus reduce the odds of a save after a possible mislynch that I outlined above, then I'd point out that you've already said you will only protect yourself or radish. Even if you change your stance and say you'll only protect yourself it doesn't mean you actually will, thus it comes down to WIFOM with the mafia and you'll have 50% odds of a save anyway. If you don't believe this to be true then simply decline to answer the following.

We already know you saved hat night one, myself night two, and radish night six.
Who did you protect night four?



LINKZ

I was happy with FF lynch yesterday and it was a suprise to see J0 end up the lynch of the day

i thought your reasons against FF were stronger and i didnt like how you switched to J0

if you voted after j0  after "scum percentages posts" it would have been understandable

Stefl lynch is the most townie action you did...not being confrotable with Hat lynch was the  most scummy action

you did.

FINAL_FAN

Linkz covered it all in his post up till that point that point i suspected more than linkz but these few last days

actions his my suspicion of him have been steadily decreasing and my suspicion of lInkz rising

He was also the first to unvote me when i claimed Doc.

 

I'll post later with more thoughts.



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nen-suer said:

LINKZ

I was happy with FF lynch yesterday and it was a suprise to see J0 end up the lynch of the day

i thought your reasons against FF were stronger and i didnt like how you switched to J0

if you voted after j0  after "scum percentages posts" it would have been understandable

Stefl lynch is the most townie action you did...not being confrotable with Hat lynch was the  most scummy action

you did.

FINAL_FAN

Linkz covered it all in his post up till that point that point i suspected more than linkz but these few last days

actions his my suspicion of him have been steadily decreasing and my suspicion of lInkz rising

He was also the first to unvote me when i claimed Doc.

 

I'll post later with more thoughts.

Let me get this straight, you don't like how I went from FF(who'd be a townie if I'm mafia) to j0? Unlike those who apologized to j0, I'm not sorry for lynching him. He said things that made no sense and did little to try to clear it up. I'm sorry that it was a mislynch but that's as far as it goes.

Once again, I didn't have a problem with hat being lynched. He was one of my top suspects after all. The only issue I had was how quickly the lynch occurred. Nothing additional was gained from it, as yesterday's mislynch goes to show.

Your reasoning of trusting FF because he unvoted you for claiming doc is downright illogical. Of course townies wouldn't want to lynch the doctor, but scum have no reason to push that lynch either. Most of the time, they can simply kill the doc at night.

Here's an interesting fact for you though. Day two when you had 5 votes on you there were three confirmed townies and one confirmed scum as well as Final-Fan. Do you believe if FF is a townie that other scum(MG) would've intentionally led a mislynch on scottie when you were already ripe for the picking? On the contrary I'd say if he's a townie then you are the last mafia.

I'm abandoning my line of questioning, it's too late to stay up any longer just for the slim chance that you'll make a mistake.

Also, @noname/theRepublic: start the deadline clock. I'm getting sick of whoever my teammates are.