Linkzmax said: No you didn't miscount, and no you didn't need to hold my hand. I would've liked better reasoning as to why nen or radish could be scum. Otherwise it's actually quite obvious that the best choice for today is actually to lynch. Let's go through the four of us shall we: radish is confirmed town twice over. First there's Truck calling him a fellow mason before getting offed. Now there's nen saying he gave radish protection. If nen's telling the truth then radish was saved from the night kill. If nen is lying then he's actually scum. There's a very small chance nen could be scum, but this would mean he actually chose not to kill anyone. Again, why? nen could've taken radish(and claimed he protected himself or even you or I for possible extra believability) out without any worry of having the kill blocked, and then it'd probably be an easy win today as you and I focused on each other. That leaves the two of us. There is no reason if one of us is scum to choose not to kill. This ties in directly with my point that the best plan for today is to actually have a lynch. I think you'd agree that if either of us is mafia, then the best chances of scum winning is for both of us and one of radish or nen to remain alive. Then it basically comes down to a townie making the wrong choice. Your quick vote for a no lynch says to me that you're anxious to get another chance of killing one of them to create the "ideal" setup. The reason we should lynch today is because assuming one of us is mafia, it gives town the best possible odds at winning. Let me break down that last point in a separate paragraph. If you or I is the last mafia, then town has a 50% chance of winning with a lynch today. If town chooses wrong, then there's a 50% chance that nen blocks the kill at night. Meaning town has a 75% chance of winning. So unless you can bring up something that makes sense as far as radish or nen being mafia the choice to lynch today is quite clear. And with that: Now to convince nen and radish that this plan is for the best. Note that I'm not even trying to convince you to lynch FF, just that no lynch isn't the best option. I will certainly do more to push his lynch over my own if you need convincing and I'll defend myself until the end should you guys lean my way, but this is just for deciding if a lynch is best. nen is easy. If you're town then see above, you increase the odds of winning by 25% if there's a lynch today. The only reason you should hesitate to agree is if you believe there to be a good chance that radish is actually scum and not FF or I. If you're scum then it's an obvious choice because you'll win outright. radish. If you're town then see above, you increase the odds of winning by 25% if there's a lynch today. The only reason you should hesitate to agree is if you believe there to be a good chance that nen is actually scum and not FF or I. If you're scum, then first of all you're an idiot,(sorry for being rude if that's the case, but it's true even if you end up winning as scum) and secondly it's an obvious choice because unless nen was lying about never protecting me or FF again, then you'll have an easy kill tonight. |
The problem with that logic is that I know I'm not mafia, and you supposedly know you're not mafia, so from my perspective the odds don't increase at all, since if I mislynch you (or you mislynch me) then that pretty much means nen is mafia (and not doctor). He kills someone, bam game over.
Admittedly, the logic works for nen and radish, but NOT ME (or you). I didn't look at it from other people's perspectives.
So it still comes down to whether I think you or nen are mafia, and a nightkill could not possibly hurt the odds from my perspective. But since No Lynch probably won't happen,
Unvote No Lynch
Vote Linkzmax.
Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia. Thanks WordsofWisdom!