I think more like >8 mill in 2010.

Kinect sales really surprised me!

Well it's very impressive for MS to be ahead of where it needs to be to reach the 5 million mark but I don't know if they actually have the supply to go past 5 million.

Likely sales will continue to be strong following the holidays as we will see a similar "Wii" like affect on the general non gaming population.  The format for wii success after initial holiday sales was having people who got together for christmas walking away having to get one of their own.  I expect a similar scenario for Kinect which should keep demand high well after christmas and into the next quarter. 

To address some things:

Games: Kinect has been out for a little over 2 months people. Expecting it to have a fully fleshed out lineup of games is pretty foolish given there hasn't even been 6 months to release titles for it. Sure if Christmas comes and there are no new awesome games coming out in the intervening 12 months then absolutely go and attack the games lineup. However the current games lineup which is offered has to be considered sufficient given the fact that the device is selling above expectation.

Core/bridge titles:  Since it is hard enough for people to agree on what it actually means, how can people agree that a system has them or not? For the first few months the bridge title we can all agree on is novelty. The core love it as much as the less enthusiastic game player. Beyond this there are bridge experiences like the console auto logging in the user in focus which makes the device easier to use for people who aren't so skilled. There are also experiences like drop in and out multiplayer which is great for people who only play games for 5-20minutes at a stretch. Finally there are universal services like music / netflix / Hulu *2011* / ESPN / Zune passes which are as important to the console as many huge individual titles.

Sales: Kinect is pretty much selling as fast as it could sell. I don't really see it being able to have sold another 2M for instance over and above its current sales rate. At the present point they are more than satisfactory. I don't see any good reason why the sales will suddenly die once the new year starts, its not like people suddenly realised that the Wii would be 'destined to be a dust collector' on Jan 1 2007 and then told all their friends not to bother. If we go by Nintendo then word of mouth ought to peak closer to 8-10 weeks out from release or maybe much later given the lower penetration of Kinect compared to Wii in all places, then interest from the current games lineup and experiences ought to peak sometime in 2011 depending on how far that is in the future which I cannot say and the titles which appeal in the intervening time period between now and the current likely peak interest ignoring all future games.

Why we should assume it will have a Wii-like pattern in the first place?

This is my worry. I think Microsoft keeping up the image will help it's sales, but they need to stay consistent.

I never said it would have a Wii like pattern, if you knew the referrence you would know I wasn't talking about the Wii.

You were talking about what Iwata said at investors briefing? That referrence?

Exactly...I just don't understand how anyone can think 20 million KINECTS sold is impossible when its on track to sell 6-7 million in its first 2 months.

Well sure, when you're not blinded by irrational hatred it's not impossible at all.  In fact its ... likely.

You know what the worst thing is with Kinect?

Toastboy was right and he'll keep rubbing it in our faces for the next few years....

Horrible... just horrible...