I don't think you're crazy (if you want to see crazy, go look up Crazzyman, Avinash and John Lucas) but I still don't see Kinect selling 20 million. Why? Its the hottest stuff right now in the middle of the holidays but the lack of proper software support will deflate sale as 2011 goes by and I can't see it having a good holiday season 2011 to be honest.

Of course, I might be dead wrong, I did predict that Kinect and Move would flop after all! Time will show and I'll gladly eat a large serving of crow if I'm wrong.

However, Microsoft is thus far segmenting their casual and core userbase.  Core titles are limited almost exlcusively to controller-based titles and casual titles are built pre-dominantly around Kinect.  You have little overlap between the two, and you have few games designed to cater to both the casual AND core.  Simply having both types of titles available on a single console is not enough.

What differentiates the Wii from PS3/360 is its number of bridge titles:  titles that cater to both the casual and core.  Games that are incredibly accessible on the surface, but provide plenty of depth for those willing to invest the time.  Key examples of this are two of Nintendo's best sellers, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Mario Kart Wii.  Super Smash Bros. Brawl could also be seen as having a somewhat casual exterior, given its simple basic gameplay mechanics, while still beign at its heart a very hardcore game.

And what's great about bridge titles is that they not only satiate both the casual and core consumer base, but they also open casual gamers up to more core experiences, thus helping to foster new hardcore consumers.

There's nothing I've seen so far on Kinect that could really count as a bridge title, and I doubt Gears of War Kinect will do much to bridge that divide.  Forza probably has the best shot if anything, but that's assuming you can drive via Kinect controls.

Also, I'd argue that Kinect satisifies the casual consumer base at this point even less than the Wii satisfies the core consumer base.  A handful of decent titles isn't going to cut it.   That may change in the future, but that's how things stand now.

We'll see how its selling after the launch hype has died down.

Edited for clarification.

I agree with most things you state but I'd say the Wii satisfies the core just as well as consoles of past gens, PS3 and 360 have a lot of games that are hyped released in short time frames, which isn't normal it's something that has happened this gen only, which is why Wii games have spread out sales both across many titles and selling well months after release, and PS3 and 360 are very front loaded which never happened before in a generation of consoles.

For me personally I think these "AAA" hyped core titles are rarely worthy of satisfying my personal gaming tastes, but they're typically marketed well, much better than Wii titles, and just that alone gives some image of "man PS3 and 360 gets a lot of games for the core" cause thats what you see presented to you, when you kinda have to look for the Wii games lol 

Anyway yeah Kinect is separating core and casuals in not only games but who they're trying to market to.  Even then the line-up so far isn't that appealing to me, Dance Central is the only game I want and I'm not about to spend 150 game price for just one game.  Kinect Sports would have been a better bundle for Kinect as well since it works so much better than Kinect Adventures but since I already own Wii Sports/Resort, I don't really feel like buying it stand alone lol. 

But out of those two titles neither one could you consider to ever bridge things, bridge titles are big for getting friends and family to play with you, and it helps sales a lot since you're bringing two markets together, like with NSMB Wii.

OT: Congrats to Kinect, hopefully with increasing sales it will increase the support, I'm still worried about how well it'd be supported in the next couple of years.

Kinect sales aren't going to just completely die off and disappear once Christmas is over. The momentum is way too strong for that to happen.

In fact, since so many Kinects are being given to people as gifts, we should see a pretty big boost in game sales the week after Christmas as new Kinect owners go out and buy games for it.

And none of us know what Kinect titles will be out in 2011, 2012, etc. Saying that Kinect will never have titles that appeal to core gamers is very presumptious.

Advertising will sell initiall units, but word of mouth will keep kinect selling.

Bought Kinect three weeks ago, one party later, two of my friends bought them. 

Went to another party (it's not kinect party but kinect was there for the kids) couple of days ago and another guy bought one.

I believe kinect will have legs.

You kind of defeated your own argument there.

I say at least half of the Kinects sold right now are going to people who didn't own the console previously.  As we can plainly see there are at least 32 million Wii owners who don't own a 360 and many of those people might see Kinect/360 as an upgrade.

The 360 will reach 50 million by the end of the year.  Let's take a 10% attach rate for existing owners, that puts it at 5 million units.  You don't think there are 15 million only Wii owners out there who are interested in Kinect?  I think so.

Wow and I thought that 2 m at the end of the year would be good :p

I think just over 6 million end of year now, which I admit amazes me as it's way above what I expected.  Still not sure about 20 million in that timeframe though as I still feel the price, once in the frugal months after December, will cause sales to drop sharply for a while.

But... Kinect has confounded me already so who knows, maybe demand will hold post December.

Give it some time then the is DOOOOMEEED will be a daily thing from game makers. magizes,blogs, etc. Yet it will still sell great at the same time. It wont matter though they will all say its dooomed even years of being proven wrong.

Kinect saw big spike in sales here in Poland and this is amazing considering its price.