I think just over 6 million end of year now, which I admit amazes me as it's way above what I expected. Still not sure about 20 million in that timeframe though as I still feel the price, once in the frugal months after December, will cause sales to drop sharply for a while.
But... Kinect has confounded me already so who knows, maybe demand will hold post December.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...