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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox360, Wii, PS3, and software

Before I say anything else, let me say that it's clear that the Xbox360 sells software at a particularly strong clip. What I want to challenge here is how significant the difference between the 360 and PS3/Wii is in terms of attach rates and software sales -- I think the 360 is doing better, certainly, but I just don't think it's nearly as big a deal as many have previously claimed. Let me explain.

First, note that many people confuse American Software figures with worldwide figure, due to the NPD's dominating presence in netwide (not sitewide) sales data. Many people see that the Wii has sold more systems worldwide, and then assume that this means it has sold more in America, which isn't the case. It is entirely appropriate for the 360 to still have a significant lead in total software sales in America since it still has a significant lead in total hardware sales in America, too.

Take, for example, Microsoft's response to last month's (October's) NPD data:

http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/15116/October-NPD-Xbox-360-Led-Software-Sales/

The big rallying cry for the Xbox last month was that it outsold PS3 and Wii software combined. That's certainly good -- and again, there's no question that Xbox360 is excellent for pushing software -- but it really isn't as impressive when one considers that the Xbox360 had the majority of the hardware marketshare all the way until November of this year.

http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39390&console=&maker=&boxartz=3

Let me restate that simply: in October, the Xbox360 had approximately 51 percent hardware marketshare in America, and sold approximately 54 percent of the software. The Wii had approximately 34 percent market share, and sold approximately 30 percent of the games; the PS3 had approximately 15 percent market share, and sold approximately 16 percent of the games. Again, that certainly favors the 360, but not in some overwhelming fashion, where the 360 is some software beast and the Wii/PS3 are totally incapable of moving hardware. It's a slight bias.

Now, compare this to this month's statement:

http://kotaku.com/gaming/npd/november-npds-microsofts-reaction-333834.php

Note how Microsoft says they are "#1 in game sales" now? This almost certainly means they sold less than 50 percent of the total software -- if they had done so, they would almost certainly have made sure we knew that the Xbox360 had, once again, sold more software than the PS3 and Wii combined.

And it just so happens that this month, November 2007, is the first month in which the PS3+Wii have a larger combined install base than the Xbox360 in North America. That isn't a coincidence.

Lastly, please note Ioi's American and Worldwide software sales data for the last four weeks:

http://vgchartz.com/aweekly.php
http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php

The Wii software has been competing with (and in a few weeks, besting) the total 360 software in America, and has been handily outselling 360 software on a weekly basis worldwide for the last four weeks straight. The PS3, also, has more than held its own relative to install base: several people have pointed out that Call of Duty 4 and Assassin's Creed both did as well or better on PS3 relative to install base (which is what we're talking about here). In europe, the PS3 is actually keeping up with total 360 software sales despite having a notably lower install base.

Summary for TL:DR tards: while I do think the 360 does very well with software, I think the notion that "360 is a software beast, why don't people buy PS3/Wii games?" is quite overstated. The bias is slight, and it's quite reasonable to assume that the 360 will no longer be selling the most software if and when it no longer has the most hardware.

 



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RolStoppable said:
Okay Bod, that was a good explanation, but there's still something that really bothers me: What does TL:DR mean?

Well said Rol



Too long: didn't read. Meaning, a summary for people who don't want to take the time to read a full analysis. 

 



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Lag. DP.

Honestly, if you want this post put as simply as possible: some people really take the "Xbox360 sells so much software!" line way too far. I've seen many people suggest the Wii would need to double the 360's hardware install base to ever outsell  the 360's software.

But clearly, that isn't the case for the Wii, nor for the PS3. I expect the 360 IS selling more software-per-hardware by a few percentage points, but it's extremely close.

Again, as a brief summary: the 360 had approximately 51 percent hardware marketshare in October, and sold approximately 54 percent of the software. The Wii had approximately 34 percent hardware marketshare in October, and sold approximately 30 percent of the software. The PS3 had approximately 15 percent of the hardware market in October, and sold approximately 16 percent of the software.

In November, PS3 and Wii finally have more than half the hardware market combined. They also combined to have more than half the software market for the first time ever in the same month.

This points to a few percentage difference in software sales, not some huge, insurmountable advantage.  



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But also note that Nintendo released possibly the biggest exclusive game game of the year (2007, please dont bring up games in 2008) across all consoles that month which was Mario Galaxy. This is like the September month to Xbox 360 with Halo 3. In that sense, I dont think it did outstanding at all for software. It should have blown the competion away by miles.



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eugene said:
But also note that Nintendo released possibly the biggest exclusive game game of the year (2007, please dont bring up games in 2008) across all consoles that month which was Mario Galaxy. This is like the September month to Xbox 360 with Halo 3. In that sense, I dont think it did outstanding at all for software. It should have blown the competion away by miles.

Assassin's Creed and Call of Duty 4 more than nullify the significance of Mario.  And what about October? In October, the Wii had nothing, while the 360 had Halo 3 (it had only been out for five days when Oct hit, and sold 500k the first week of October), Half Life 2: Orange Box, Ace Combat 6, Project Gotham Racing...

And yet, the 360 only managed to have barely larger software market share than it did hardware marketshare (3 percent, to be precise). Is that good? Yes. Is it complete domination? Absolutely not.

And that's my point, really, Eugene. I'm not saying the 360 isn't doing particuarly well with software; it is. I'm just pointing out that it isn't utter domination, either. It's a 5-10 percent difference, which is nice, but not a huge deal. 





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eugene said:
But also note that Nintendo released possibly the biggest exclusive game game of the year (2007, please dont bring up games in 2008) across all consoles that month which was Mario Galaxy. This is like the September month to Xbox 360 with Halo 3. In that sense, I dont think it did outstanding at all for software. It should have blown the competion away by miles.

For the most part, Nintendo's biggest games are not instant successes; there sales typically grow over years to become some of the best selling games of the generation. A year after its release, The Legend of Zelda sold (roughly) 100,000 units in November. Two years from now, Super Mario Galaxy will still be in the top 100 games sold on any given week.



RolStoppable said:
Hey Bod, do you have factored in Wii Sports in October and November sales of your analysis or did you exclude it just like NPD?

Those analysis come from Microsoft, and they are responses to the NPD. Therefore, they do not include Wii Sports. 



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NPD also doesnt include any Xbox 360 packins. Also note, Mario Galaxy was indeed the fastest selling Mario game ever and the most front loaded game ever for the Wii. It is also popular with hardcore gamers. It had the highest metacritic score ever. It also had the right season of spending incredible money. The wii software should by all means have destroyed the competion by miles as the September month was for Xbox. This month actually showed how weak more than any other month, how weak Wii software sales are.



As always, Bodhestava, your punctuation is on the money! This is one of the many reasons you need to be a mod here -- you would do great posting articles and stuff. As for your post, I would have to agree. In Europe, as you've already pointed out, software is doing very well for the PS3.