Xbox360, Wii, PS3, and software

[Bodhesatva]

Before I say anything else, let me say that it's clear that the Xbox360 sells software at a particularly strong clip. What I want to challenge here is how significant the difference between the 360 and PS3/Wii is in terms of attach rates and software sales -- I think the 360 is doing better, certainly, but I just don't think it's nearly as big a deal as many have previously claimed. Let me explain.

First, note that many people confuse American Software figures with worldwide figure, due to the NPD's dominating presence in netwide (not sitewide) sales data. Many people see that the Wii has sold more systems worldwide, and then assume that this means it has sold more in America, which isn't the case. It is entirely appropriate for the 360 to still have a significant lead in total software sales in America since it still has a significant lead in total hardware sales in America, too.

Take, for example, Microsoft's response to last month's (October's) NPD data:

http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/15116/October-NPD-Xbox-360-Led-Software-Sales/

The big rallying cry for the Xbox last month was that it outsold PS3 and Wii software combined. That's certainly good -- and again, there's no question that Xbox360 is excellent for pushing software -- but it really isn't as impressive when one considers that the Xbox360 had the majority of the hardware marketshare all the way until November of this year.

http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php?date=39390&console=&maker=&boxartz=3

Let me restate that simply: in October, the Xbox360 had approximately 51 percent hardware marketshare in America, and sold approximately 54 percent of the software. The Wii had approximately 34 percent market share, and sold approximately 30 percent of the games; the PS3 had approximately 15 percent market share, and sold approximately 16 percent of the games. Again, that certainly favors the 360, but not in some overwhelming fashion, where the 360 is some software beast and the Wii/PS3 are totally incapable of moving hardware. It's a slight bias.

Now, compare this to this month's statement:

http://kotaku.com/gaming/npd/november-npds-microsofts-reaction-333834.php

Note how Microsoft says they are "#1 in game sales" now? This almost certainly means they sold less than 50 percent of the total software -- if they had done so, they would almost certainly have made sure we knew that the Xbox360 had, once again, sold more software than the PS3 and Wii combined.

And it just so happens that this month, November 2007, is the first month in which the PS3+Wii have a larger combined install base than the Xbox360 in North America. That isn't a coincidence.

Lastly, please note Ioi's American and Worldwide software sales data for the last four weeks:

http://vgchartz.com/aweekly.php
http://vgchartz.com/weekly.php

The Wii software has been competing with (and in a few weeks, besting) the total 360 software in America, and has been handily outselling 360 software on a weekly basis worldwide for the last four weeks straight. The PS3, also, has more than held its own relative to install base: several people have pointed out that Call of Duty 4 and Assassin's Creed both did as well or better on PS3 relative to install base (which is what we're talking about here). In europe, the PS3 is actually keeping up with total 360 software sales despite having a notably lower install base.

Summary for TL:DR tards: while I do think the 360 does very well with software, I think the notion that "360 is a software beast, why don't people buy PS3/Wii games?" is quite overstated. The bias is slight, and it's quite reasonable to assume that the 360 will no longer be selling the most software if and when it no longer has the most hardware.