Gran Turismo 5 will sell more than 10 million.

Quote me later.

Well i expect about 8 mil lifetime WW, i think GT6 will have better potential

Well, the obvious trend I see is that in US, generally GT games are trending down with the exception of GT3 which has oddly high US sales - was GT3 heavily bunlded in US? - while in EMEA the sales are trending up for GT.  So, the big question for GT5, based on the opening, is that is US contribution is a bit less than GT4 can the - probably - larger EMEAA contribution offset it?  Seems possible.  10 million or more still seems fairly likely unless sales suddenly collapse at some point.

GT3 is definately an outlier for the series with that big US number.  I'm guessing either something about GT3 struck a chord in US or it was simply bundled much more and gained an excessive amount of additional sales.

Smoothing out GT3 sales though GT5 seems to be doing well, looking more popular than ever in EMEA and on track for some very big numbers LTD - almost certain to be the number 1 PS3 1st party selling title I'd have thought.

I think that there's no way we can estimate sales at this point of time as bundling strategy chosen by Sony will have huge effects on total sales of GT5.

With minimal bundling 9-10M is possible but if they made it bundled for standard SKU instead of price drop then even GT3 number could be in danger.

We also don't know how much holiday sales will inflat GT5 sales, I think until 10 weeks or so, we can only say for sure, that it will sell well.

GT5 EMEAA 2nd week sales is less than GT4 EMEAA 2nd week sales, and GT5 has the boost of coming out during the holidays.  Not sure if GT5 EMEAA will match GT4 EMEAA lifetime sales...  Also not sure if GT5 American sales will match GT4 American sales.....

I'm smelling surprises as Sony releasing official figures ... you can't trust what we have today in EMEAA.

no1 is considering that gt4 have been released in february/march and gt5 in november?

no2 is considering the user base?

That's not really the same.  User base has proven to not matter much when it comes to sales, particularly this gen (see MGS3 vs MGS4, GoW2 vs GoW3, GeoW vs GeoW2, etc).

But releasing a big game during the holiday season vs late winter/early spring DOES matter.  A huge holiday release will always have larger initial sales numbers.