Where are you getting that data from? I am looking at the VG chartz numbers and it is showing X with 100,000 more at Japans launch than XII. The launch data for X is absent for any other region so it is hard to make a comparison outside of Japan. Both of them are under VII though which set the record at just over 2 million. Further, XIIs launch in America saw it only take home 600k, which is way under what you predict for the American launch. While I am certain being the first new FF on a system will help, it is also hurt by a way way smaller install base (compared to XII launch).  I am betting you are off by around a million all said and done, but I could see the launch being as low as 2.5 million total for first week world wide.

 I'll bet you an Avatar for a month that it does not match Halo 3s sales. This is assuming I still remember that when the game launches of course.

This is a great point. Wheras the PS2 attracted alot of casuals and PS1 gamers, the PS3's demographic is mostly similar with the Xbox 360's demographic, just smaller.  They havent yet attracted an installed base that would be interested in Final Fantasy games. The Xbox 360, from day on attracted people that loved Halo so at 10 million units sold, they knew Halo would fly off the shelves. You cant say that about the PS3 and Final Fantasy.

 It's not a fair comparison. Japan loves the DS and its games. Actually, if FFXIII was planned to came to the DS and not the PS3, I would seriously consider it selling it more than Halo 3 first week.

@Gnizmo

ok deal, FFXIII sells more than Halo 3 (3.84M) worldwide. If FFXIII releases on a Sunday in Japan then we count 6/7ths of the Japanese second week sales.

  I would say it is actually a very good test for it. At a glance the two series always seemed to perform ery similarly for first week sales with DQ being higher normally. I would say it is realistic to expect XII to sell around 75-80% of what DQ does first week due to the series being less popular and having a smaller install base. Big name series have a way of doing well regardless of what platform they are sold on (yes, I am looking at you Monster Hunter on the PSP).

 @Tombi Prepare for a month with an Avatare from whatever Wii/DS game is the biggest at the time =) 

While there's no question FFXIII will sell like great guns ablazing, I find it highly unlikely it'll even come close to Halo 3's openning week. 1st off, reviewers will have to say it's the second coming of FFVII. Secondly, PS3 will need to move more hardware than it's currently selling.

It's not impossible, but highly, highly unlikely.

anyway SE will be doing some good business as usual

 No other FF game has had a WW release as far as I know, so I don't expect to get it earlier than 6 months after Japan, maybe even a whole year...

I think you guys are overestimating demand based on people on the internet being exited.

I don't see it selling better opening week