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Forums - Sales Discussion - I think I have found a legitimat reason for Sony's overstuffed ship numbers

Michael-5 said:

To be honest I'm still shocked at this massive sales adjustment, for a couple legitamate reasons.

1. Did Move really push that many consoles? Really? Move? Does that mean Kinect will do the same for 360? Really? Is motion gaming really that atttractive? Really? Seriously? A Wand with a glowing ball on the end and no good supporting games (except RE5).

2. This is a massive sales adjustment, and Sony has seen 3 sales adjustments in the last couple months. I'm sure the PS3 is outselling the 360, but did VGCharts honestly miss 1 million console sales? I understand some data is from smaller, more rural middle east and african regions, but Move has only sold 500 units, it's hard to beleive that it's responsible for a 60-100k weekly sales jump.

So I'm going to give it a couple weeks and wait for Kinect data to come in. If Kinect also posts ridiculous boosts in sales, then sadly, I guess this Move boost is real. If it doesn't, then I would question the reliability of this data.

I mean in January 2010 PS3 was ahead of 360 in EMEAA, then it didn't surpass the 360 in EMEAA for another 4 months, then recently 360 came within 45k of surpassing PS3 in EMEAA, and then now it's all of a sudden over 1 million sales behind?? Something is up, but PS3 probably did have a strong fall.

To be honest, I still don't see the PS3 meeting that 15 million fisical year goal. This data may be smudged by Sony to hold reputation (e.g. 15 million shipped, 12 million sold).

 

what you still refuse to believe the data that is in those charts seriously?? those charts are as about as close as the real figures we can get for sales seriously lots of people are so hurt over this, it's like they are stuck in a nightmare.

finally the adjustment is for lots of time of ps3 being under-tracked, not just for one month, go figure



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fallen said:

I and many other, including Vgchartz, have been questioning Sony's recent 3.5 number when Europe, Japan, and NPD sales from reputable sources simply dont support it.

 

Well, I found this post on another forum. Very enlightening. There doesnt seem to be any quote function in this boards software in new posts, which is utterly riduculous, so I cant quote it, but here

 

"Sony usually overstock before Christmas

Past two years:"

 

 

What that shows is that Sony historically ships much more relatively in calender quarter 3, than Q4, compared to 360.

If this holds up you will basically expect a very strong Q4 for 360, probably ahead of PS3, in ship numbers. For example, if it holds to the pattern of 2009, 360 will be up  ~150% in Q4, =2.5X2.8=7.0. PS3 if it is up ~100%, will be 2X3.5=7.0. If it conforms more to the pattern of 2008, then it will be even better for 360, etc. I also briefly checked 2007, and the pattern holds there too. I left Wii out of this mostly because it doesnt concern me (and I'm just copying a post from another board anyway), I dont know if Nintendo follows Sony's pattern or Microsoft's. But we can clearly see an apparant pattern. Perhaps it even has something to do with Sony's larger share in Europe, maybe it takes longer to ship hardware to Europe.

This is something I never would have noticed on my own.

 

I'm sure some angry PS3 fans will see sour grapes here, but whatever, they have no right to do that when recorded sales prove them almost unequivacally wrong regarding Sony's recent PS3 hardware ship. I think the Q4 numbers may surprise some people if this holds validity. As far as I'm concerned it's pretty much Sony's last chance to convince me their ship numbers aren't bogus...

 

 

What on earth are you saying? Of course PS3 shipments dramatically increased in Q3 2009. That's when the Slim released. That's when the Slim crossed 600k sold on launch week. Similarly, the 360 had a price cut back in Q4 2008, which was why those numbers had increased so hugely. The PS3 outsold the 360 in Q3 2008, which is why those shipments were higher, and the 360 outsold the PS3 in Q4 2008, which is why those shipments were higher.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

It is a possible explanation. I certainly won't dismiss it out of hand.



Tease.

i award this thread herewith the Selnor medal of entertainment excellence



“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”

- George Orwell, ‘1984’

Porcupine_I said:

 

Lol my exact thoughts



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fallen said:


Hmm, what data is that? Hey, check this chart out

 

 

Huh, so that's NPD where 360 beat PS3 by quite a lot, Media Creat where PS3 beat 360 of course, but when you combine NPD and Media Creat PS3 is still significantly behind...so we must go to Europe, Hmm, looks like theyre about even! Now what?

I'm afraid I'm not the one avoiding reality here.

I'm not saying retailers are buying PS3's they dont want. There's a lot of lag time, shipping by boat from China to Europe or the USA alone takes 8 weeks I've heard.

For whatever reason it seems historically, Sony starts shipping their holiday stock earlier than MS, some of it in the third quarter. So historically, you end up with a high PS3 number relative to the 4th Q. As the OP laid out.

 

 

Dude that CHART is JUST for UK, Germany, France & Spain! (It just combines those countries).....many more countries do exist in Europe.

There's another graph thats been posted above me that has the WHOLE EU region counted!



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Michael-5 said:

To be honest I'm still shocked at this massive sales adjustment, for a couple legitamate reasons.

1. Did Move really push that many consoles? Really? Move? Does that mean Kinect will do the same for 360? Really? Is motion gaming really that atttractive? Really? Seriously? A Wand with a glowing ball on the end and no good supporting games (except RE5).

2. This is a massive sales adjustment, and Sony has seen 3 sales adjustments in the last couple months. I'm sure the PS3 is outselling the 360, but did VGCharts honestly miss 1 million console sales? I understand some data is from smaller, more rural middle east and african regions, but Move has only sold 500 units, it's hard to beleive that it's responsible for a 60-100k weekly sales jump.

So I'm going to give it a couple weeks and wait for Kinect data to come in. If Kinect also posts ridiculous boosts in sales, then sadly, I guess this Move boost is real. If it doesn't, then I would question the reliability of this data.

I mean in January 2010 PS3 was ahead of 360 in EMEAA, then it didn't surpass the 360 in EMEAA for another 4 months, then recently 360 came within 45k of surpassing PS3 in EMEAA, and then now it's all of a sudden over 1 million sales behind?? Something is up, but PS3 probably did have a strong fall.

To be honest, I still don't see the PS3 meeting that 15 million fisical year goal. This data may be smudged by Sony to hold reputation (e.g. 15 million shipped, 12 million sold).

Some of you need to really understand that this isn't nursery school.....SONY can't just "SMUDGE" the data and get away with it.......its just not that simple really, it isn't a game....it would be a major crime to make such big lies about specific console sales to investors.

And lol the data being posted in this thread in form of charts and graphs is actually from the Nintendo press briefing.....the source for Nintendo's data is GFK the most trusted console sales/software tracker in Europe because it covers loads of retail stores in all EU countries....something VGC can't do (and its not VGC's fault either....its so difficult to track the EMEAA region).

Another thing is SONY can't just stuff the channel for 2 quarters in a row......retailers aren't puppets controlled by SONY....THEY WILL NOT take extra/excess PS3 stock 2 QUARTERS in a row....



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Shit I wonder if I should believe this dude or Nintendo's graph...



I have only one thing to say : buy a PS3 and be a much happier person! 



rccsetzer said:

I have only one thing to say : buy a PS3 and be a much happier person! 


LOL ULTIMATE REPLY!!