I honestly can't fathom why you're looking at this as sales per publisher, and record years and all this stuff. If for no other reason, it depends entirely on what they release and will change year to year. Of course Konami arn't going to have a record year without an MGS, or Capcom without RE, or Namco without Tekken etc.

 PS3 and X360 are both set to have record years for software again, so to then conclude that this is the peak year just seems odd and unfounded. Sure, it could be, but it could continue to peak next year? Move and Kinect certainly seem partly designed to 'extend' the console life cycle and drive software sales away from decline, and unlike when the PS2's design began, the games coming to these systems are still all the major franchises. Your method to me doesn't really feel like a sensible way to determine industry-wide trends.

p.s. how the hell did Ubisoft sell so much in 2008 (A non Assassin's Creed year)? Did Assassin's creed sell alot after 2007's xmas or am I forgettng some big hit? :/.

Leo J if price was the only determining factor PS2 would be selling at record volumes when it hit $180, $150, $130 and $100. Instead it peaked at $200, in Apr 2002 - March 2003.

PS3 got to 12.4m in a year at $400 and then did 13-13.5m from Oct 2009 - Sept 2010 when it cost only $300. Anyone who wants a PS3 can afford it now. It isn't a whim purchase, but minimum wage in the USA is $7.15 / hour or something so if you work 40 hours each week its not a burden for anyone to buy.

Is it really so hard to believe that PS3 is peaking in its fifth fiscal year? That is traditionally the year when systems with slow starts peak - see NES, PS1, GB, DS, etc.

Regarding franchises and things, 2008 wasn't all Metal Gear for Konami, and all GTA for Take Two. But beyond that, sequels that aren't from the biggest five or six franchises tend to do worse than their predecessors, particularly after the second edition on a console. Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, Assassin's Creed, Madden, WWE, UFC, Metal Gear, and others will all decline from this point forwards - as will most other game franchises on current systems. Not all franchises will, Final Fantasy would probably improve in Japan, GTA would improve in the west - but those are much rarer instances than the franchises which will decline.

Also, our figures suggest X360 is barely outpacing 2009 for sw - so yeah, I'd say its likely the peak. PS3 could be about flat next year but I really think it will be down.

Looks to me like the majority are having good years on PS3/360, even a bunch are having great years on PSP...

And I just have to agree with everything leo-j said.

Now the thing is what price should be considered "mass market" for the PS3; $99.99 like the PS2??

How is it unfounded? The increases are shrinking each year and year four to six of the cycle is traditionally the peak. You can't just look at big hits and say they can do it again - people get sick of the same stuff and it takes new hits to maintain or exceed those real big years.

As for Ubisoft, they had sold 20m DS games in 2008. Which is what I'm talking about - Assassin's Creed isn't responsible for the peak alone - you need hits from unexpected places and you just don't see that with most publishers right now.

I don't know why you guys are so resistant to the idea that this is the peak - in 2006 / 2007, the HD SW market was something like 50m / 100m and now its 260m - 290m, three games per user, for 94m HD users if you annualize it for 2010. The issue is once you get below three games per user, the purchasing rates drop off pretty quickly. After this fiscal year (year to March 2011) HD purchasing rates could easily fall to 1.7 to 2.3 games per user in the year to March 2012, as that is how all historical consoles have trended once purchasing rates per year dropped below 3 games per user. If you figure 120m HD users at the end of 2011, then you'd expect 250m games purchased. Not a huge drop, but a solid 10% fall off. As hw really slows after that, the drops will be 25% per year.

Good Years != Peak Years. 13/20 opportunities are off peak on X360 & PS3. You guys don't seem to understand that if the publishers can't make massive amounts of money on a huge base, then its time to try again. We're at a point now where all three bases are huge and 80% of the 50 publishing opportunities between the five platforms are set to decrease in 2010. Just because that figure is only 55% on PS3 and 70% on X360 it doesn't mean those systems are looked at as huge growth engines for publishers. With purchasing rates in decline for the average user, the only publishers who can take advantage of base growth now are those who make the two to three games alot of the base wants - which is much harder to do than be one of the five games the base wants in a year (as was the case on Wii in 2006-2007, PS3 in 2007-2008, and X360 in 2006-2008).

I believe wii would be on his last year in 2011, I find very likely that wii 2 will be available by march 2011... Wii is being declining since 2009, but its number were so high that even with its decline, wii numbers are still on par with ps3/360... It seems to me that 2010 will be 360´s peak year, and 2011 ps3 peaking year... With the arrival of wii2 by early 2012, sony & microsoft (if microsoft doesnt do it early) will show their new systems, releasing on nov/dec 2012... Most major dev will jump to gun of ps4/xbox720?, while small devs will keep working for a couple of year on ps3/360... Wii is likely to survive after 2012, as the ps2 did... a $125/$99 price will keep it for a few years...

 With the upcoming arrival of the 3DS, most devs (specially Japonese devs) are going to focus on it, and keeping a hold for the psp2... So most likely I feel that we will see fewer games (Good games), for every home console in/after 2011...  

I suspect that most people want to see what happens with Move and Kinect before calling it a peak. It is an opportunity to sell to new users and a few existing users at the same time at least a few more games based solely on the novelty of the new experience with the longevity of interest in Move and Kinect not really known at this point.

To raise the software sales again and not peak in 2010 a console has to:

1. Sell enough consoles to new users and or
2. Increase sales to existing users.

Given the fact that both the Xbox 360 and PS3 meet the criteria for the first possibility and possibly meet the criteria for the 2nd it is fair to say the chances of pushing the software peak out for another year is still open for discussion.

When console owners get their new consoles they tend to buy a larger number of titles quickly to build out their new console library. With the new interfaces there is also the possibility that existing console owners with either Kinect or Move will begin a period of more rapid aquisition of titles as seen by the large quantities of Move titles sold to a relatively small base and the same will likely apply to Kinect.

Lastly we have also seen a steady increase in the number of digitally digistributed titles each year. So whilst on the 360 for instance it probably doesn't amount to more than around 7M titles @ $42 ASP over $300M estimated revenue, it has trended at over 50% YOY increases for as long as I can remember so it should not be forgotten.

Honestly, with PS3 / X360 purchasing rates per user declining steadily over the past several years I really can't see Move or Kinect reversing anything, as those items will only sell to 20% of the base or something by the end of 2011.

Microsoft doesn't give shipment figures, but for PS3, purchasing rates are trending down fairly quickly, as is always the case once purchasing rates get to 3 games per user or so.

FY 3/2009 - 4.56 games bought per PS3 user (103.7m / 22.3m)

FY 3/2010 - 3.24 games bought per PS3 user (115.6 / 35.73m)

FY 3/2011 - Trending for 2.65 games bought per PS3 user (135m / 50.73m)

FY 3/2012 - 1.7 - 2.1 games per user * 63m users? That'd be 120m games bought (120m / 63m = 1.9)

Hard to say exactly, but after you get below 3 games purchased per FY, the drop off is usually pretty steep.

@TheSource

Thanks for the info. This is only a proof that we must be ready for the next gen. :D

I really don't know why people are so blind. The numbers says more than anything you wish "Oh no! my console no!" "The others mabye, but not my console!" Its possible that TheSource made a wrong prediction, but he has numbers and he says the trends that everyone sees on what he post.

This - generation - is - almost - over. Enjoy while you can. 3DS is only the begin. :D

ROFL

It was the Slim price, or not?