Always interesting to me that normal users buy fewer and fewer games the longer they own a console. As a hardcore user I buy the same amount of games in year 5 of a system as in year 1. But I guess I'm the minority. Then again TBH I dont buy a huge amount of games to start. Maybe 3-5 per year full priced. I bet the console makers wish all users were like me, then their sales would only increase with userbase.

Used games is a reason for this 

why buy new when you can buy an array of cheaper games 

Hmm this seems to be mostly a matter of Wii colapse.

The biggest drops for 2010 compared to record year are Activision, Ubisoft, Sega which means companies that have great sales in Wii market and THQ which honestly didn't release any big hits in 2010.

to be fair most of the launch title probably haven't been in development long and ports were easier to get ready for the 3DS, and more original IPs will be announced at E3 2011. But already we have a few new IPs in the form of My garden (will be crap), steel diver and Time travellers (looks interesting)  which I am sure will be the first of many, so while there are few it's not none.

From the the data I collected in the other SQ analysis threads I have this:
YTD Sales until end of August for the consoles: (as of data collected 2 weeks ago)

Seems wii is stable in total sales although I can see what you are talking about regarding SW/HW sales

PS3 has boomed and PSP seems out of its slouch last year.

But once again this is total sales not relative to HW which is what I believe you are talking about source?

Nice, ms 4.6 mill off their peak year. Fable and Halo will do that alone, Kinect software will just be a bonus, will pass 20 mill.

Current - 12.09
(Fable 3 3 mill) 15.09
(Reach 2 mill) 17.09
(Kinect Adventures 2.5 mill) 19.59
(Other Kinect SW?? 2 mill?) 21.59
(Forza re-release 0.5 mill) 22.09
(Current SW, Alan Wake, Forza, ODST, Gears ect 1-2 mill) 24.09

lol, I love the people who stick their fingers in their ears :P

@The Source
Based on these figures. Can the 3 console makers hold out a total of 10 years between console releases. It seems clear that the consumer behavior isn't going to wait. It really does seem that the console cycle is set by the consumer and not the manufacturer. In this light, what do you think the 3 companies are going to do.

I noticed Nintendo peaked first. Hit a small decline then just dropped. Which is part of the course after peaking. Do you feel that the next Wiiteration will be coming out sooner or later? What does this mean now that Wii peaked before the other consoles? Is it smart to wait a few more years because their YTD Sofware sales are still significantly higher than MS/Sony? or is it important to start the console shift sooner than later.

When you take PSP, DS and Wii out of the equation what does the picture look like? I'd guess more publishers have a better chance of hitting their previous numbers on the HD consoles. 

The ps3 is not peaking period...

THE SOURCE do you continue to ignore the fact the ps3 is STILL not at mass market price? Publishers don't need to start setting records so that a console's software sales peak. In fact the ps3's software sales is at the highest it's ever been, and the console still hasn't "peaked" hardware wise, and will not have its peak year until it drops to $199...

you could say the 360 and wii have peaked, because the 360 has been on the market since 2005, the wii has been at mass market price point since it launched, and the 360 has released a redesign and been at mass market price for two years, but kinect may give the console some life like microsoft said it's depending on so that the 360 lasts another couple of years...

You could say the industry as a whole may have peaked, due to PSP/DS declines, and 360/WII nearing their peaks, or have already peaked, but the ps3 has not peaked, and it's interest is growing greatly thanks to the fact the ps3 is one of the cheapest 3D blu ray players, and 3d tv interests are increasing in the television market. The move has also sold well above your estimations, and the ps3 has sold well above your previous estimations... and I wouldn't be suprised if there's a 1 million gap between shipment figures and actual consumer sales between your estimations and sony, as you have continually underestimated the ps3, and still do today.

everyone sees it, everyone knows it, and we all know, ALL OF US who have been here for 5 plus years, that a console's peak comes after it reaches mass market price point.

I still strongly disagree with this theory as I did when the news commentary was written. Next year PS3 should be able to top 100M in software sales, with the line-up Sony is putting forth, and the PS3 base price dropping, there is 0 chance that next year will not top this year on PS3. 

On Microsofts side I expect any loss in core game sales being offset by the wave of Kinect users and titles. If the Halo HD rumors come true, 360 could easily pick up 10M sales late next year on GeoW3 and this title. 

The problem with new consoles any time soon is the lack of new possibilities they would bring to the table. The current top end PC hardware is not enough of a leap from were current consoles are to dazzle people with mind blowing graphics. 3D is to young to take advantage of as a selling point, and this will play a very important role next gen. Motion controls and other advanced control techniques are not quite ready to make the jump, prices need to be brought down. 

Before new consoles can be viable there has to be a quantum leap in performance. That is not the case at the moment. If next year the PS4 was to arrive at $499.99 with motion controls, classic controls, full 1080p 60fps 3d, and multitasking it would be crushed by the current gen consoles. People don't have displays to take advantage of the tech yet, and the PS3 and 360 already do all that stuff good enough, and at $199 by then.